Virginia will be a bellwether for Republicans to flip the script on abortion

Gov. Glenn Youngkin is Virginia’s happy Republican warrior, and for good reason. In a state that has voted blue in every presidential election since 2008, the pro-life governor’s popularity consistently outstrips that of the Democratic Party standard-bearer, President Biden. With every seat in a divided state legislature up for grabs next month, polls show the race neck-and-neck for party control.

This, in spite of millions of dollars in attack ads painting Youngkin and the GOP as extreme and out of touch on abortion. Democrats are once again counting on abortion as the pivotal issue to save them. 

Politico recently described Youngkin as “betting big” on a platform of protecting babies in the womb at 15 weeks, a point when science shows they feel pain, with an assertive strategy of going on offense to refute opponents’ lies and expose them as the true extremists.  

Having counseled hundreds of pro-life candidates, I would take that bet any day. 

Flipping the script isn’t actually a new tactic. Youngkin employed it successfully in 2021, but it is still tragically underused nationally.

On the debate stage and on the airwaves, Youngkin refused to let abortion extremist Terry McAuliffe monopolize the narrative. On Election Day, 8 percent of Virginia voters cited abortion as their top issue in exit polls. Those voters overwhelmingly backed Youngkin, and they delivered a Republican state House majority. 

What’s distinct and special about Virginia is the unity among Republicans under Youngkin’s leadership, their fearlessness and the resources they are marshalling to back their message and level the playing field. It’s the first time since the Dobbs Supreme Court decision, which struck down the constitutional right to abortion, that all of these elements will really be put to the test in a bellwether state. 

As of early October, Democratic House and Senate candidates had spent at least $4.5 million on abortion-focused ads compared to Republicans’ $590,000. Youngkin’s PAC has recently amped that up with a $1.4 million campaign centered on common-sense abortion limits. 

The Republicans are being specific and transparent about where they draw the line on abortion, down to the week, including their positions on exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother. In contrast, the Democrats’ formula is to accuse all Republicans of seeking a complete ban, with no exceptions, and of wanting to throw women in jail or not caring if they die.  

Youngkin and company are pushing back against this and highlighting the Democrats, calling out their lies and their own admissions that they would enshrine in law no-limits abortion at any point in pregnancy. The Virginia Republicans’ approach is smart. It’s confident, and it indicates how seriously they take the issue. 

All of this makes Virginia the clearest bellwether going into 2024.  

You’d think the Democrats would learn their lesson from Terry McAuliffe’s unexpected defeat. But since Dobbs rocked the status quo, they have relied on fear and rage around abortion to turn out their base.  

In the 2022 midterms, this playbook worked relatively well. While pro-life governors who had signed strong protections against abortion soared to re-election, many federal candidates — acting no doubt on the advice of skittish consultants — took the “ostrich strategy.” When they couldn’t run, they hid. When they couldn’t hide, they changed the subject.  

But Democrats have an Achilles’ heel. The humanity of the child in the womb terrifies them. One of their leading pollsters admitted to The New York Times, “Debating weeks is not where we want to be,” allegedly because “people are terrible at math and terrible at biology.”

They don’t want to talk about the babies’ well-developed little fingers and toes, or their beating hearts, or the pain they feel when ripped apart in abortions at 15 weeks. They know that the American people will not be with them if they are honest about their position.  

When pressed to name any limit they would support, Democrats dodge every time. This is why Republicans must get specific. It gives voters a stark contrast and stops the truth from being swallowed by Democrats’ big and broad lies. 

Youngkin and the Virginia GOP aren’t cowering. Candidates across the country should take note of their leadership. They are rebuking their opponents’ lies and making their own stances clear. Youngkin himself defends life with joy and optimism — no wonder some say he looks presidential. 

The state Republican Party is united around Youngkin’s 15-week limit. This would protect hundreds of lives each year and be a significant step forward from Virginia’s current laws, which allow second-trimester abortions for any reason and third-trimester abortions for mental health reasons. It would reflect the will of 60 percent of Virginians, including strong majorities of Democrats, independents, women and self-described pro-choice voters. 

The only thing preserving late-term abortion on demand in Virginia is state Senate Democrats. 

This election could set the stage not just for protecting babies and moms in Virginia, but for future elections, too. If Republicans thwart the advances of pro-abortion rights Democrats and hold the House or take the Senate, it would provide a roadmap for the GOP to tackle abortion and make it their winning issue nationwide — even in the bluest states — and in Washington. All eyes are on Virginia to prove that abortion is not the left's silver bullet.  

Marjorie Dannenfelser is president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.