Calculating the true cost of Trump to the GOP
Republicans should be riding high — President Biden is badly under water across top issues and overall approval polls. Instead, the GOP has a mess in the House and its leading candidate for president in 2024 is barely ahead of Biden. And, yes, the root of Republican troubles is Donald Trump.
To be sure, not everything wrong in Republican politics is Trump’s fault. The party’s congressional leaders have been timid and reactive, and refuse to put forward any substantive policy agenda, not to mention the presence of mean-spirited characters like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert. And the former president is not the undiluted failure the Never Trumpers claim. Trump broke up the traditional Democratic coalition by appealing to union voters and some minority voters. He created a path for an enduring Republican political majority.
Unfortunately for the GOP, Trump’s complete lack of discipline, control issues, egomania and carelessness have more than counterbalanced what he brings to the table. The political opportunities he created have been squandered by him and his odious acolytes.
At the writing of this piece, Trump leads Biden in the RealClearPolitics average at 44.8 percent to 44.1 percent. But just looking at the ballot test masks the problem — the reality is that Biden should be trailing Trump by 10 points or more. Biden’s approval has been negative for over two years and currently stands at negative 14 percent. Only 24 percent consider the country on the right track against 67 percent wrong direction.
Biden is also negative across the board on the top issues in polls by ABC News/Ipsos and YouGov. He’s at 36 percent to 61 percent disapproval overall for a negative 25 points (Ipsos), and is down 40 points on inflation, 31 points on crime and 44 points on immigration. YouGov has better numbers for Biden, down just 10 points on overall approval. Even so, he does far worse on most issues; in particular, Biden is down 32 points on inflation among independents and 30 points on crime.
Yet, Trump is up less than 1 point on average.
Trump substitutes in better position
GOP presidential contender Nikki Haley, who is getting hardly any media coverage, is leading Biden by nearly 2 points. But the key statistic is Biden’s percentage, which is just 42.7 percent — a 1.4-point fall from his Trump number. Lower name ID always translates into lower polling, as a subsection of voters who dislike a given candidate’s opponent like to play hard to get and will sit in the undecided column until they get more information. Not being the hate object that Trump is and already polling ahead of Biden is a strong result for Haley.
For Ron DeSantis, polling is more complicated. He is behind Biden who has a higher percentage at just over 45 percent. However, that polling is in the face of relentless attacks by Trump and Democrats. Trump has managed to push DeSantis’s disapproval to 25 percent among Republicans, higher than any other Republican’s, except creepy Matt Gaetz. Yet, his disapproval among independents is 50 percent, lower than Trump (57 percent) and Biden (59 percent). Simply recovering Republican voters would likely push DeSantis ahead of Biden.
The Trump way is the biggest problem
But polling comes and goes — and if convictions start piling up, Trump will probably go. The biggest problem Trump has inflicted on the GOP is his noxious outlook. I am not talking about Trump’s rhetoric, which sends every snowflake on the left and in the media into a 24/7 meltdown; rather, it is Trump’s ultra-individualist egomania.
Politics is a team sport. But Trump’s idea of team is where he is the coach, captain and quarterback while everyone else is a waterboy. And that cannot work in the long term. Trump’s egomania has sucked all the oxygen out of the room, leaving no opportunity for other Republicans to build an independent base or identity. When the real estate mogul’s hegemony is threatened, he attacks, unwilling to share a photon of the spotlight. His focus is on himself always, not on building a lasting majority. All other Republicans must serve him.
Even worse, his attitude has filtered through the Republican Party. Witness the fumbling of the House GOP. A narrow majority needs teamwork to operate, and yet Trump acolyte Matt Gaetz, along with a collection of other me-first Trump fans, channeled the Trump Way by torpedoing Kevin McCarthy’s Speakership. The fumbling, confused attempts to elect a new Speaker have featured more Trump attitude, with various collections of members sinking candidate after candidate.
That me-first attitude spreads to messaging and the policy agenda. Particularly in the Republican House Caucus, members are more focused on grandstanding for talk-show appearances and podcasts. A perfect example is James Comer, chair of the Government Oversight Committee. Comer, who has singularly failed in his crusade to impeach Joe Biden and has allowed a plethora of political opportunities to pass by, has been on Fox News or Fox Business 200 times this year.
Comer has certainly figured out how to self-promote, bluster and pontificate — too bad he is unwilling to do his actual job. If Comer were serious about building a Republican majority and electing a Republican president, he would be holding hearings on any number of Biden administration policy failures. But that is not Comer’s main focus. Like Trump, Comer is all about himself and his own ego.
In the end, Trump’s me-first politics is the real damage inflicted on the GOP. Politicians have always been self-focused animals, but most understand that they need to engage in teamwork to obtain and wield power. Trump has severely undermined this understanding in the Republican Party. The result could be eight years of a very unpopular Democratic president and a Democratic Congress. I hope that 3-minute shot on “Hannity” was worth it.
Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.