Forde-Yard Dash: Five Questions for the First CFP Ranking

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where fans who storm the field after a big victory should be more interested in celebrating than taunting:

First Quarter: Michigan’s spygate silence

Second Quarter: Questions ahead of the CFP rankings debut

The College Football Playoff is set to begin its five-week Tuesday television show, an annual event that serves only two purposes: It gives ESPN some well-viewed inventory and sets up the CFP selection committee chair for drive-by criticism (congrats on that, North Carolina State athletic director Boo Corrigan).

If you want to ramp up your conspiracy theories early, feel free to consult the list of the 13 committee members while scanning the skies for black helicopters. Of particularly awkward note, Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel is on the roster.

The only show that matters is the last one, on Selection Sunday in December, but the first one does at least provide an introduction to the committee’s view of the season to date. So we will watch and react. But first, let’s weigh five questions that will be answered Tuesday.

Where does the committee differ from the polls (11)?

There is always a lot of talk about strength of schedule; will the committee back that up in the boardroom this week? If so, its rankings will probably look different at the top than the AP and coaches’ polls.

The top two teams in those polls have the lowest strength of schedules of the five undefeated teams, according to the Sagarin Ratings. Top-ranked Georgia has played the No. 81 schedule to date, while No. 2 Michigan’s schedule ranks 68th. Sagarin rates Washington’s schedule 52nd, Florida State’s 48th and Ohio State’s 22nd.

That will change going forward. Using Sagarin’s metrics, Washington has the hardest remaining regular-season schedule, with an average opponent ranking of 25th. Michigan is next at 31st, followed by Georgia (35th), Ohio State (44th) and Florida State (86th, weighed down by FCS North Alabama).

Which undefeated Power 5 team will be outside the top four (12)?

The guess here is Washington. At the risk of applying recency bias, watching the Huskies struggle the last two games against Arizona State and Stanford, teams with a combined record of 4–12, raises eyebrows. But the nonconference portion of Washington’s schedule hasn’t held up well, either—Boise State, Tulsa and Michigan State are a combined 9–15. The victory over Oregon was huge—the biggest single win of any of the undefeated teams—but it’s propping up the whole résumé right now.

That will change immediately, however, as the Huskies enter a gantlet of No. 24 USC, No. 18 Utah and No. 16 Oregon State, with two of the three on the road. The key dynamic to watch here will be how much the committee respects the Pac-12, which had the best nonconference performance of any league. Will those victories from September resonate into November, as Pac-12 teams continue beating one another up? For a conference that hasn’t put a team in the playoff since 2016, that’s a vital question.

How do they rank the one-loss teams (13)?

Oregon probably should be the highest ranked of those. A case also could be made for Texas. What about Oklahoma? And Alabama? And Mississippi?

The Ducks lost by three at undefeated Washington, missing a field goal at the gun that would have forced overtime. (So would the two short field goals coach Dan Lanning elected not to try, but that’s another story.) Only one Oregon victory is by fewer than two touchdowns, and its average margin of victory is 29.9 points. Destroying Utah in Salt Lake City, where the Utes had won 18 in a row, should resonate.

While Oregon has the best loss, should that count more than the best win? Among the one-loss crowd, the best win belongs to Texas, which beat Alabama by 10 in Tuscaloosa in the second week of the season. The Longhorns’ lone defeat was in the final seconds to Oklahoma in Dallas, and their 40–14 win over Kansas carries extra weight this week. The Longhorns did have a surprisingly close call at Houston, with a bad spot helping stop a potential tying drive by the Cougars in the final minute.

How much does head-to-head matter? Oklahoma hopes it matters a lot, having defeated Texas on a neutral field. Alabama and the Horns hope not much, having been defeated by other teams in the one-loss pack. The Crimson Tide had the benefit of losing early and has performed well since then, with wins over No. 11 Mississippi and No. 19 Tennessee. The Sooners lost to a Kansas team that lost to Texas, which muddies the waters. The Rebels lost handily at Alabama but have wins over ranked Tulane and LSU.

The Dash’s rankings of the five top one-loss teams: Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Mississippi.

As for a few others: Penn State is lacking in quality wins, but if the Nittany Lions shock Michigan on Nov. 11, that changes everything. The same could be said for Missouri’s opportunity at Georgia on Saturday (the Tigers do have a win of improving quality over Kansas State). Louisville’s double-digit win over Notre Dame should resonate but is undercut by a 17-point loss to 2–6 Pittsburgh.

How highly ranked is the top two-loss team, and can it make the playoff (14)?

This is a trickier question than the polls would make it appear. Notre Dame and LSU—tied to each other as the former and current employers of Brian Kelly—are ahead of the other top two-loss teams in the AP and coaches’ polls. But should they be?

For now, probably. The Dash would rank Notre Dame (6–2) at the head of the two-loss group, followed by LSU, just outside the top 10. That said, the Big 12 and Pac-12 have three-team packs of pursuers that merit some attention. Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma State all are 6–2 and on an upward trajectory. Oregon State, Utah and USC are not on upward trajectories coming off losses but have a lot of big games ahead.

As for a two-loss team getting into the CFP: The Dash will believe it when it happens, and not before. LSU would have the best shot, because going 11–2 would entail winning at Alabama and, presumably, beating Georgia for the SEC championship in Atlanta.

Who is the top Group of 5 team (15)?

Undefeated Air Force is the highest-ranked team from outside the Power 5, currently residing at No. 17 in both polls. Tulane (7–1) checks in at No. 21, with undefeated Liberty and one-loss Fresno State receiving votes. Unbeaten James Madison is ineligible for postseason play as a transitioning school from the FCS ranks.

Air Force and Fresno might ultimately settle the New Year's Six bowl bid on the field in the Mountain West championship game, but Tulane is making a push for a repeat. The Dash suspects that the CFP folks would love to have a service academy team in a high-profile bowl.

Playoff spoilers?

Teams that are on the outside of the CFP race right now, but have the opportunity to blow up some contenders down the stretch.

USC and/or Oregon State (16). The Trojans and Beavers both have games remaining against both Washington and Oregon. USC hosts the Huskies on Saturday and visits the Ducks on Nov. 11; Oregon State hosts Washington on Nov. 18 and visits Oregon on Nov. 24. Of the two, The Dash gives the Beavers a better chance of causing chaos. The Trojans are in defensive disarray and more likely to spit the bit on the season, while Oregon State should retain plenty of motivation to take down the two schools that dealt the death blow to the Pac-12 in August.

One of the surging Big 12 teams (17). Oklahoma State, winner of four in a row, hosts Oklahoma on Saturday in what is the last scheduled Bedlam game in a series dating back to 1904. Kansas State, winner of three in a row, is at Texas on Saturday. Iowa State, winner of three in a row, hosts Texas on Nov. 18. Bouncing the SEC deserters from the playoff—and perhaps from the Big 12 championship game—would rank high on their 2023 wish lists.

Then there is TCU (18), which plays both Texas (Nov. 11) and Oklahoma (Nov. 24). The Horned Frogs have been a disappointment at 4–4; can they rekindle some 2022 mojo down the stretch?

Miami (19) plays both Florida State (Nov. 11) and Louisville (Nov. 18). The Hurricanes (6–2) wouldn’t be reduced to a spoiler role if they hadn’t blown the Georgia Tech game in spectacular fashion, but here they are.

Michigan State (20) has games remaining against Ohio State (Nov. 11) and Penn State (Nov. 24). But let’s not kid ourselves about a team that hasn’t won since Sept. 9.