MMO Free Agent Profile: Lucas Giolito, RHP

LUCAS GIOLITO

Position: SP

Age: 29 (07/14/1994)

2023 Traditional Stats: 33 G, 184 1/3 IP, 8-15, 4.88 ERA, 1.313 WHIP, 204 SO, 73 BB

2023 Advanced Stats: 91 ERA+, 25.7% SO%, 11.6% BB%, 4.61 xERA, 5.27 FIP, 4.45 xFIP, 1.0 fWAR, -0.7 bWAR

Rundown

Lucas Giolito, someone who was once the top prospect in the Washington Nationals system from 2014-2016, had another disappointing season in 2023. The right-hander began the 2023 season with the Chicago White Sox, before being traded to the Los Angeles Angels ahead of the trade deadline. Giolito made six starts for the then postseason-hopeful Angels but was placed on waivers by the organization at the end of August. Just days later, he was picked up by the Cleveland Guardians in their quest to catch the Minnesota Twins at the top of the American League Central by the end of September.

His start to last season was promising, as the starting pitcher had regained some form he had shown earlier in his career. Giolito was 6-5 with a 3.45 ERA in 112 1/3 innings prior to the All-Star break, despite giving up 17 home runs in 19 starts. By that point in the season, the White Sox had already fallen behind the Twins at the top of the division. Giolito was set to become a free agent at the end of the year, so his name began to pop up in numerous trade rumors. The question was, where would he end up?

Giolito, who grew up in California, got a chance to go home when the Angels acquired him and make the playoffs for the first time since 2021. But the Angels push for the playoffs ended prematurely, as injuries quickly caught up to them. And once Mike Trout reaggravated his hand injury, the season was all but over for the Angels. Giolito struggled in his short period with the team, going 1-5 with a 6.89 ERA in 32 2/3 innings. But despite those underwhelming numbers, he was given another chance to pitch for a team playing important games down the stretch.

The Guardians trailed the Twins by five games when they picked Giolito off waivers. It was always going to be a tall task for a team that had underperformed for a large portion of the year, which certainly continued. The performances for Giolito got even worse, as he went 1-4 with a 7.04 ERA in 30 2/3 innings with the Guardians. He failed to limit his problems with the long ball, as opponents hit 11 home runs in six games. Giolito had a solid start to the season within Chicago, but he failed to match that level of performance with the Angels and the Guardians. Going into the free agency, there are questions about the one-time All-Star.

Giolito led the league with 41 home runs allowed, which is an alarming number. He finished the year with 2.0 HR/9, his highest tally since 2016 when he made six big league appearances for the Nationals. If Giolito is ever going to get back to the level he was pitching at back in 2019, he needs to keep the ball in the park at a much better rate. To his credit, he was able to do that at the beginning of the season in Chicago. But as the year went on and he continued to change teams, that number got worse and worse.

Contract

Spotrac.com projects Giolito to earn $11.8 million within a four-year deal, which would make him the third highest-paid starter on the staff (Kodai Senga at $15 million and José Quintana at $13 million). That price tag seems fairly reasonable, assuming that he is able to bounce back in 2024. Giolito won’t turn 30 until July, so he is right in the prime of his career. When that is taken into consideration, giving him a four-year deal sounds about right. The organization made it clear at the deadline that their best opportunity to compete in a World Series will be in 2025 and 2026. If that is still their belief, does signing a starting pitcher to a four-year deal fit into their plans? It is difficult to tell at this point, but that will continue to be a talking point moving forward.

Recommendation

The Mets will add one or two starting pitchers in free agency, but it is difficult to see a scenario where one of them is Lucas Giolito. Now, if David Stearns believes that he can get back to the level he was at in 2019, that changes things. To his credit, Giolito has been extremely durable since he became a full-time big leaguer, even leading the majors with 33 starts in 2023. The Mets need starting pitchers who can pitch every fifth day, as injuries at that position have hindered them in years prior.

Giolito is a solid starting pitcher who can be an All-Star when right, but if he wants a four-year deal, the Mets should target other players in the free-agent market. Stearns and team owner Steve Cohen should look at one-year deals or two-year deals to compete next season while building towards 2025. Giolito could have success next season, but it will likely be with a different team.

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