Too close to call: Luke Combs vs. Morgan Wallen for Male Vocalist of the Year at CMA Awards

In what’s shaping up to be the closest race at the upcoming Country Music Association Awards, which air on November 8, Luke Combs and Morgan Wallen are facing off for Male Vocalist of the Year. Both artists have had arguably the biggest year of their careers, but which one will be celebrated for it? Make or update your predictions here in our predictions center.

The race is so close that both Combs and Wallen get 6/1 odds based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users as of this writing. Wallen has the lead when you ask Gold Derby’s Editors who cover awards year-round. Seven out of 10 of them give him the advantage compared to two who say Combs and one who’s going out on a limb for country stalwart Chris Stapleton.

And for good reason. Wallen’s album “One Thing at a Time” has spent 16 weeks on top of the Billboard 200 albums chart, making it arguably the most successful album of the year from any genre. And his single “Last Night” led the Hot 100 for 16 total weeks, tying it as the second-longest chart-topper of all time. Only Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus‘s “Old Town Road” was number-one for longer (19 weeks).

But Wallen may still be trailing a lot of baggage. A recording of him using a racial slur got him banned from many awards shows for about a year before he was welcomed back by the country community. And he hasn’t won a CMA Award since he claimed New Artist of the Year in 2020. So it might be easier for voters to get behind Combs, who’s not only less controversial but is the reigning champion for Entertainer of the Year and Album of the Year.

Combs also had a huge hit with his cover of Tracy Chapman‘s classic song “Fast Car,” which managed to exceed the success of the original recording, peaking at number-two on the Hot 100. In any other year without Wallen in the conversation, “Fast Car” would be considered the country crossover phenomenon of the year. Now he’s backed by 16 of our Top 24 Users compared to just five who bet on Wallen. And among our All-Star Top 24, 11 say Combs over seven who say Wallen.

So this race is about as close as you can get. Who you bet on could make or break your score at this year’s CMAs. Place your bets now if you haven’t already.

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