Tam Union school district pollster: Voters favor $517M bond

A majority of likely Tamalpais Union High School District voters would support a new $517 million bond measure in the March election, according to the district’s pollster.

Bryan Godbe of Godbe Research told district trustees at their board meeting on Oct. 24 that a telephone and online poll of 397 voters taken from Oct. 2 to Oct. 5 indicated an average 59.3% of respondents would support the proposed bond.

The measure would need 55% yes votes out of 61,085 likely district voters in the March 5 elections to pass.

“We tested informational, positive and critical issues,” Godbe said.

The 59.3% favorable rating was the average of the high rating after the positive series of questions, or 63.2% favorable, and the low rating, or 55.4% favorable, after the negative queries, Godbe said. The poll had a 4.9% margin of error.

Godbe called the average “encouraging” because it factors in both positive and negative levels of support.

“It is a better indication after people hear both sides of the issue,” Godbe said. “It is certainly above the 55% threshold.”

Mimi Willard, president of the Coalition of Sensible Taxpayers, a nonprofit in Marin, disagreed. She said the odds of passage, as reflected by the polling figures, did not appear very good.

“The latest polling shows that Tam Union’s proposed tax measure is in trouble, largely because it will cost voters over $1 billion,” Willard said, referring to the total bond repayment cost over 30 years.

She said the average 59.3% favorable figure is a “made-up metric invented by the pollsters” and does not reflect the actual voter sentiment. The real level of support, according to Willard, was the final test figure of 55.4%, which she called the “informed support test” that reflects voters’ opinions after hearing both pros and cons.

The number “should be a big red flag that the bond measure is in trouble,” Willard said.

“It is a toss-up with essentially a 50/50 chance of passage,” she said.

She said the district should lower the bond amount and only keep the “must-do” projects.

The trustees will decide at their Nov. 14 board meeting whether to place the measure on the March 5 ballot. The deadline for ballot placement is Dec. 9, Godbe said.

If approved by voters, the bond measure would assess a tax of $30 per $100,000 of assessed value per property. On a home assessed at $1 million, the annual tax would be $300.

Trustees said the bond is critically needed to upgrade aging classroom buildings, specifically at Redwood and Tamalpais high schools. The Redwood buildings are at least 60 years old and include portable classrooms that have already outlived their useful lives, while the Tam high buildings are up to 100 years old and in need of major repairs, according to the district.

“It’s one thing to talk about the improvements in a poll, but there’s another thing to describe to people the current state of disarray and disrepair that exists,” said Karen Loebbaka, the board president, after the poll results were presented.

“There are substandard class sizes, leaky roofs and portables that are 30 years past their expiration date,” she said. “There’s a fine balance between talking about the positives, and also that we’ve got 100-plus-year-old buildings that are in disrepair.”

The poll included responses to phone interviews, as well as text to online and email to online responses

“The online makes up the majority of the interviews,” Godbe said.

Godbe said the firm also asked respondents if they would be more inclined to support a lesser bond amount, such as a $487 million bond issue, at a tax of about $28 per $100,000 of assessed valuation. However, the lesser amount didn’t make much difference in the favorable or unfavorable results, he said.

If the bond is approved by voters, the two main projects on the list for construction are a $106 million arts, music, ceramics and cafeteria complex at Redwood High School and a $90 million science-technology-engineering-art-math complex at Tamalpais High School.

Concept design work on both projects has already started. In the event the bond passes, contractors could start work next summer, cutting down on escalating construction costs.

The district would also pursue smaller modernization projects at the district’s three other high schools: Archie Williams, Tamiscal and San Andreas.

Trustees at the board meeting also reviewed a proposed 75-word ballot question for the bond, plus a set of proposed favorable arguments to be included with the ballot.

Those and a resolution to place the measure on the ballot will be on the agenda for the Nov. 14 meeting, according to Charles Heath of TeamCivX, the district’s bond advisory firm.