Box office preview: Sofia Coppola’s ‘Priscilla’ could break into Top 5

After October began and ended with two monstrous box office hits, November starts a bit quieter with a few lower-key releases that may have trouble making a significant mark. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

A24 will be releasing Sofia Coppola‘s “Priscilla,” starring Cailee Spaeney as Priscilla Presley and Jacob Elordi as Elvis Presley, nationwide on Friday after a platform release into four theaters in New York and L.A. this past weekend, where it averaged a solid $33k per location. Adapted by Coppola from Priscilla Presley‘s 1985 memoir “Elvis and Me,” the movie shows a darker side to the King of Rock ‘n’ Roll in the toxic and abusive treatment of his younger wife.

Obviously, two things going for “Priscilla” is Coppola’s own popularity as a filmmaker going back to 1999’s “The Virgin Suicides” and more recent films like “The Bling Ring” in 2013, although neither made more than $12 million worldwide. More interest might come from the diehard fanbase for Elvis Presley and his life, although “Priscilla” is more about his wife and less about his popular music. What will be interesting for the film’s nationwide expansion is to see where the Venn diagram falls in terms of the popularity of Priscilla in the South and Midwest with Coppola’s more limited audience in larger cities.

SEE Grab the popcorn and sound off in our movie forums

Although Baz Luhrmann‘s “Elvis,” starring Austin Butler, opened with $31.2 million last year and went on to gross $279.6 million worldwide and receive eight Oscar nominations, although that was a much more straight-forward biopic with A-lister Tom Hanks in a crucial role. Elordi has built himself quite a female fanbase from his starring role in “The Kissing Booth” and its two sequels on Netflix, which could help drive business this weekend.

“Priscilla” was one of the first movies to receive a SAG-AFTRA interim waiver that would allow the cast to do press and promotion on the festival circuit, as well as doing talk shows. “Priscilla” was presumed to be an awards player for A24, but the reactions out of festivals have been mixed despite it currently having a 91% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Opening in roughly 1,300 theaters, “Priscilla” can probably make somewhere between $4 and 5 million this weekend, putting it up against Martin Scorsese‘s “Killers of the Flower Moon” for third place but more likely taking fourth.

Before we get to the other semi-wide or moderate releases, we need to look at last weekend’s mega-hit, “Five Nights at Freddy’s,” and how it might hold up. A large drop should be expected due to its first weekend front-loading, but it should still be good for a second weekend in first place with $25 million or more. This is also the very last weekend to see “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour,” so expect that to hold well in second place.

Mexican comedian/actor Eugenio Derbez from the Oscar-winning Best Picture “CODA” stars in Christopher Zalla‘s drama, “Radical,” about a teacher from a troubled Mexican border town trying to find a new way to reach his students. This is the latest offering from Lionsgate’s LatinX branch Pantelion Films, who has had success with previous movies starring Derbez, including 2018’s “Overboard” remake, which grossed $91.2 million worldwide and $50.3 million domestically. A year earlier, Derbez starred in “How to Be a Latin Lover,” which opened with $12.2 million in 1,118 theaters and grossed $32.1 million. Derbez is clearly a draw for audiences.

SEE Box office: All time domestic top-grossing movies

“Radical” debuted at the Sundance Film Festival, where it received mostly positive reviews, leading to Lionsgate picking up the distribution, and releasing it in a far quieter weekend with no huge new release could help the drama open in the Top 10, although as of now, it’s likely to get a more moderate release into less than 1,000 theaters. With that in mind, it probably will end up with between $2 and 3 million and just miss the Top 5.

Also, Neil Burger (“Divergent”) directs Daisy Ridley, Ben Mendelsohn, and Garrett Hedlund in “The Marsh King’s Daughter,” an adaptation of Karen Dionne‘s novel about a woman (Ridley) who has escaped from her toxic wilderness-dwelling father (Mendelsohn) while trying to set up a safer life for her new family.

Roadside Attractions might give this a fairly wide release into 800 to 1,200 theaters, but there just hasn’t been very much promotion for the movie, and reviews aren’t likely to be that positive. Because of that, “The Marsh King’s Daughter” will end up somewhere towards the bottom of the Top 10 with less than $2 million.

Longtime Queen of the rom-com Meg Ryan directs “What Happens Later,” based on Steven Dietz‘s play “Shooting Star” and co-starring David Duchovny, which Bleecker Street will give a moderate release into 400 or 500 theaters on Friday. Duchovny and Ryan play ex-lovers who get snowed into an airport overnight. It looks like the type of movie that would appeal to Ryan’s older female fans, but it’s hard to imagine this will open with more than a million outside the Top 10. (UPDATE: It looks like Bleecker Street will actually be releasing Ryan’s film in 1,488 theaters and with Ryan able to do the talk show rounds, this could end up breaking into the top 10 with under $2 million.)

Check back on Sunday to see how many of the movies above are able to break into the Top 10.

SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions