Why the Treasury Department’s borrowing plan may overshadow Jay Powell’s news conference

The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting on interest rates later on Wednesday with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference. But investors are focusing on something else: the Treasury Department’s borrowing plan for the last three months of the year.

Four times a year, the Treasury Department announces how much the government will borrow and how it will borrow for that quarter and in the near future. Usually, it’s a snoozefest.  

Seth Carpenter, global chief economist at Morgan Stanley, made those dry announcements years ago when he was at the Treasury Department.

“Part of the objective when I was doing the press conferences was not to make headlines,” he said.

But no more. The interest rate the government pays on the bonds it issues to borrow money has soared, getting investors’ attention. Things like mortgages are tied to bond rates, so Carpenter said they’re getting pricier too.

“When the 10-year Treasury yield goes up, the 30-year-mortgage rate goes up and we’ve seen mortgages up around 8%,” he said.

And the Fed didn’t even have to lift a finger. In fact, later on Wednesday Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to announce the Fed is leaving interest rates unchanged, letting the bond market do the heavy lifting.

The Fed has been pushing interest rates higher to cool the economy and beat back inflation since March of last year.