Welcome to Layup Lines, For the Win’s basketball newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Have feedback for the Layup Lines Crew? Leave your questions, comments and concerns through this brief reader survey. Now, here’s Prince J. Grimes.
What’s good my fine people. Your boy Prince here with our first Layup Lines since the blockbuster trade between the Los Angeles Clippers and Philadelphia 76ers. James Harden is finally making the move to LA, so I figured it was a good time to reflect on the Clips and what they’re hoping to gain out of the move.
The short answer is a title, and it’s something they’ve been eyeing since bringing Paul George and Kawhi Leonard to the land of angels back in 2019, and they’ve come close a couple times.
That first year, which concluded with the pandemic bubble playoffs, the Clippers made the second round of the playoffs and pushed the Denver Nuggets to seven games before bowing out. The next year, they reached the conference finals before losing to the Phoenix Suns in six. However, Kawhi Leonard missed that entire series after suffering an injury the previous round, and the Clippers have been plagued by injuries ever since.
With Leonard missing the entire next season and George playing just 31 games, the Clippers missed the playoffs in 2021-22. And last season, LA was bounced in the first round with George sidelined and Leonard available just two games. The obvious conclusion for those of us watching this team over those four years is that they’re formidable when healthy, but also health can’t be taken for granted with them.
So, how exactly does trading for Harden fix that? It doesn’t. After the trade, the Clippers’ title odds improved from 22-1 and fifth-best in the West to 13-1 and third in the West at BetMGM, but that means absolutely nothing if Leonard and George don’t stay healthy.
That’s not to say trading for Harden was a bad move for the Clippers. He’s still an All-Star performer and former league MVP. When you can add that type of player without gutting your team, you do it (assuming he’s not or won’t become too much of a headache for the organization, which is always a concern with Harden).
One specific area Harden can help this team is in how durable he’s been over his career. Last season was just the second time in 14 years he failed to play in at least 60 games. So maybe his — and Russell Westbrook’s — dependability in the regular season helps LA keep up in the standings during the times their other stars can’t go. It may even help reduce the wear and tear of the season for those guys.
But when the playoffs come around, we know who Harden is, and more importantly, we know who he is not, and that’s a closer. When games are on the line, the Clippers are going to want the ball in Leonard’s hands, and that can only happen if he stays healthy. That was the key to their title dreams before they added Harden, and it remains the key to a title now.
The Suns also have an injury problem
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
My above conclusion about the Clippers isn’t exactly rocket science. Teams have a better shot at winning when their best players are available. But for whatever reason, some teams have worse injury luck than others, and the Phoenix Suns are beginning to join the Clippers as one of those teams.
We saw it come back to bite Phoenix in Tuesday’s loss to the San Antonio Spurs, with both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal sidelined. A game that probably wouldn’t have been close if they were fully healthy — and still wasn’t close until the end — turned into an inexcusable loss in the final seconds.
But while the loss was bad, Kevin Durant playing 37 minutes also wasn’t ideal. There’s been a lot of talk of LeBron James’ (broken) minutes restriction, but Durant is 35 years old himself and hasn’t played in more than 55 games since tearing his Achilles in 2019. He’s healthy now, but how long will that last if he has to carry this type of load just to lose to the Spurs? And how much can the Suns even count on their other stars to ease the burden?
For years, it was always Chris Paul who carried a massive regular season load for Phoenix just for his body to physically break down in the playoffs. Lately, though, Booker has struggled to stay on the court too. He’s been sidelined with an ankle injury since their season-opener, and that’s after playing in just 53 games last season. And Beal, who hasn’t played in more than 60 games since 2018-19, hasn’t even made his Suns debut yet because of a back injury.
The season is long, but this is not a good way for Phoenix’s “Big 3” to get started, and not a good sign of what may be to come.
One to Watch
(All odds via BetMGM)
Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Remember that time over the summer when Karl-Anthony Towns ridiculously said the Minnesota Timberwolves’ run to a first-round playoff exit was more impressive than the Denver Nuggets’ run to a title? (Yes, he really said that.)
Yeah, I don’t really think the Nuggets forgot either. They haven’t really said anything publicly to give me that indication, but I just know athletes aren’t the type of people to let that kind of thing slide. The Nuggets play the Wolves tonight in Minnesota for the first time since Towns’ comments, and I expect the champs to give Towns a little reminder about who they are.
Denver is favored by just 1.5 points at BetMGM, and I think they easily cover the spread, with Nikola Jokic eclipsing most of his player prop totals just to make a point.
