Swanson: Ain’t over till it’s over – even for USC football
Who wore it better?: It ain’t over till it’s over.
Yogi Berra? Or Lincoln Riley?
I’m leaning toward the late great Yogi, the sage Yankees catcher whose sporting proverbs resonate still because of how true they remain.
Riley’s version evokes a different sort of feeling, but, hey, maybe USC’s football coach is onto something too?
“I believe this team can win this league,” Riley told reporters after Saturday’s weird and wild 50-49 victory against the 3-5 Cal Bears. “Hell yeah, I do. Hell yeah, I do. I know we can.”
Technically, he’s not wrong. USC isn’t cooked yet. But keep a fork handy.
The Trojans are 7-2 overall and 5-1 and in second place in Pac-12 play heading into its final three games of its final Pac-12 Conference season.
Those three games, though? This gauntlet: Washington at home, Oregon on the road and then UCLA back at the Coliseum – that’s the No. 5, No. 6 and 19 teams in the College Football Playoff rankings released this week. They’re a combined 26-3.
USC checks in at No. 20, which at once feels generous and not at all what we all expected when the season began in late August.
Just a few months ago, the Trojans were considered national championship contenders. But the future isn’t what it used to be, and whether or not Riley wants to talk about it now, their last realistic remaining hope is for a conference crown.
“You’ve got to bounce back and not miss these opportunities that are right here in front of our face,” Riley said. “And, man, do we have a golden one right here.”
But, man, does that feel like a heavy lift. Back-breaking, back-against-the-wall work.
The Trojans – three-point underdogs at home as of Friday morning – are 2-5 vs AP-ranked opponents in the Riley era. And their next three opponents are also Nos. 5, 6 and 19 in the AP poll.
They’ve given up 213 points in their past five games, or 42.6 points per, which is third most in all of college football in that timeframe.
Asked Lincoln Riley postgame tonight if consistent defensive errors continue, he anticipated a change being made in USC’s defensive philosophy/staff/personnel.
Answered, basically, focus is on Washington and winning Pac-12, defense needs to be better but offense does too: pic.twitter.com/5VABiOAa0d
— Luca Evans (@bylucaevans) October 29, 2023
When my Southern California News Group colleague Luca Evans asked in the postgame spin room after the Cal victory what might fix such a porous defense – backup quarterbacks throwing for career highs, opponents having recorded 51 runs of at least 10 yards, USC’s past four Pac-12 foes gobbling up more than 475 yards apiece – Riley’s initial response was not to hold defensive coordinator Alex Grinch to account, but to pivot and look ahead.
“I’m going to try to beat Washington next week,” he said.
Yeah, about that.
USC is about to line up on primetime TV against the most explosive passing offense in the nation.
The Huskies are riding a 15-game winning streak, leading everyone in passing yards per game and are fifth in total yards. They’re the only team in college football with two receivers averaging more than 100 yards receiving per game, with Rome Odunze averaging 113.4 yards and Ja’Lynn Polk 104.5.
So naturally the guy throwing the passes, Michael Penix Jr., is the top-ranked quarterback in the nation in passing yards.
Think he’ll be licking his chops staring across at USC’s defense?
“He has a great arm,” USC cornerback Domani Jackson allowed this week. “Just got to do our thing and we’ll be fine.”’
Fine, like the meme of the dog in the hat sitting with a coffee at a kitchen table while the house burns around him?
Or maybe fine because things suddenly start to click schematically? Maybe Penix will just happen to have another no-good, two-interception day like he did against Arizona State on Oct. 21?
Or maybe we’ll get the shootout ABC surely is hoping for.
The network isn’t sending its A-team – Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit and Holly Rowe – to call a pitchers’ duel. They’ll be here for some high-scoring football drama, to broadcast the current odds-on Heisman Trophy favorite vs. last season’s Heisman Trophy winner.
Penix vs. Caleb Williams: the national leader in total yards passing (2,945) vs. No. 2 (2,646).
Williams vs. Penix: the national leader in touchdown passes (25) vs. No. 2 (24).
And as long as Williams is working his magic, it ain’t over.
“You just you can kind of see the light at the end of the tunnel,” Williams told reporters this week, even relaying a phone conversation he had with Riley the night of USC’s 34-32 loss to Utah a couple weeks back. “It was a weird feeling you still have, that feeling inside that you can do something special.”
“Hopefully, we can keep finding a way to get it done,” Riley said last week after the gut-wrenching Cal win. “And with the fight we showed today, I wouldn’t count us out.”
Can’t yet, but only because it ain’t over till it’s over.