CMA predictions: Luke Combs (‘Fast Car’) favored to win Single of the Year, but can decades-old tune win Song of the Year too

Luke Combs‘s “Fast Car” has been one of the biggest hits of the year, country or otherwise. So it’s no surprise that it’s the heavy favorite to win the Country Music Association Award for Single of the Year. But what about Song of the Year? The CMAs nominated it for their writing prize even though it’s a cover of a Tracy Chapman song that’s 35 years old. Can it travel through time to win that award as well?

According to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users, “Fast Car” is way ahead in the Single of the Year race, getting leading odds of 11/2. Among those backing it for the win are nine out of 10 Gold Derby Editors, 15 of our Top 24 Users and 16 of our All-Star Top 24. Despite his advantage, though, he’ll have to watch out for a double dose of Lainey Wilson, this year’s nominations leader who has two noms in this category. We think her better bet is “Heart Like a Truck” with support from six Top Users and four All-Stars. Next up with two Top Users and two All-Stars betting on it to prevail is “Wait in the Truck” by Hardy featuring Wilson. Or perhaps Wilson’s two “Truck” tunes will split the vote.

Song of the Year is a much closer race. In fact, our Top Users and All-Stars are split five ways, though the top three strongest contenders are the same as in Single of the Year. “Wait in  the Truck” and “Fast Car” are so evenly matched that they both get 6/1 odds. Top Users give “Fast Car” the slight edge, with eight picking it to win over seven who say “Wait in the Truck” and five who say “Heart Like a Truck.” The All-Stars, though, think “Wait in the Truck” is the front-runner with nine picking it to win compared to seven for “Fast Car” and four for “Heart Like a Truck.”

Jordan Davis‘s “Next Thing You Know” and Megan Moroney‘s “Tennessee Orange” are strong dark horse contenders for songwriting, though. What do you think of this year’s Single and Song races? Make or update your predictions here before the winners are announced on November 8.

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