Democrats are crushing it in special elections this year. That's unambiguously good news

In August, Tennessee state Rep. Justin Jones won back his seat in the legislature after getting expelled by the Republican majority for protesting gun violence. His margin of victory was an overwhelming 56 percentage points, in a district Joe Biden had won by 41 points in 2020 and Hillary Clinton had carried by 36 points in 2016.

This is the sort of overperformance that’s easily dismissed as a one-off, with such unusual and dramatic circumstances that it couldn’t possibly hold any broader meaning for the country at large. And that’s true—indeed, no single special election should be dissected in order to divine the will of the electorate.

But some 300 miles away, at the far eastern end of Tennessee, in a ruby red and nearly all-white district, virtually the same thing happened on the same day.

And then a month later, there was a repeat in the district next door.

In fact, there have been 27 typical special elections pitting a Democrat against a Republican in the 2023-24 election cycle so far, and Democrats have overperformed Biden in 20 and Clinton in 23. When numbers like that start to pile up, it’s time to sit up and take notice.

And what we notice is this: It’s beginning to look a lot like 2018 around here. That’s very good news.