UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis Preview & Best Bets
A UFC heavyweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 231 as No. 9 Jailton Almeida takes on No. 10 Derrick Lewis.
- Date: Saturday, November 4, 2023 | Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Ginasio do Ibirapuera – Sao Paulo, Brazil | TV: ESPN
No. 15 heavyweight Rodrigo “Yogi Bear” Nascimento takes on unranked Don’Tale “Lord Kong” Mayes. Nascimento is riding a two-fight win streak, with wins over Tanner Boser and Ilir Latifi. Mayes is 1-1 over his last two, beating Andrei Arlovski and losing to Augusto Sakai.
Mayes is four inches taller and has a one-inch reach advantage. Nascimento doesn’t have much power, especially for a heavyweight, averaging zero knockdowns per 15 minutes. Both fighters land significant strikes at a similar rate, 4.2 and 3.39, with Nascimento having a slightly higher output. However, he also absorbs 0.87 more. The grappling edge will favor Nascimento, averaging 1.58 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Mayes possesses a 56 percent takedown defense rate.
At -194, Nascimento is the favorite, which makes sense since he submitted Mayes in 2020. Take Nascimento to win by submission again at +240.
Muppet Plays With Danish DynamiteTwo unranked welterweights take the cage when Gabriel “Marretinha” Bonfim faces Nicolas “Danish Dynamite” Dalby. Bonfim is undefeated at 15-0, winning two straight in the UFC. Dalby is on a three-fight win streak, beating Claudio Silva, Warlley Alves, and Muslim Salikhov.
Bonfim is three inches taller, but Dalby will have a two-inch reach advantage. Neither fighter has much one-punch-stopping power, both averaging zero knockdowns per 15 minutes. Bonfim has impressive output, landing 6.08 significant strikes per minute to Dalby’s 3.93. However, Bonfim absorbs 1.41 more. The grappling favors Bonfim, averaging 4.8 takedowns per 15 minutes and having a perfect takedown defense rate.
Bonfim is the largest favorite on the card at -600. It’s almost a rule now in mixed martial arts betting that when the line gets this big, you must take the underdog. Dalby has the tools to pull off an upset (and it’s more exciting); take him outright at +420.
UFC Heavyweight Main EventJailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis
- Odds to Win: Almeida -520 | Lewis +370
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +110 | Submission -125 | Decision +1100
Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida was initially scheduled to fight Curtis Blaydes, but due to unknown reasons, Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis comes in to save the main event. Almeida is 19-2, riding a 14-fight win streak. Lewis is coming off a TKO of Marcos Rogerio de Lima but had lost three straight before that.
Both fighters are 6’3″ and have identical 79-inch reaches. No doubt, Lewis has the power advantage, owning the knockout record in the UFC. However, Almeida lands 1.21 more significant strikes per minute. Lewis will do anything to keep this fight on the feet but could have trouble with a 52 percent takedown defense rate. Meanwhile, Almeida averages 6.4 takedowns per 15 minutes.
With Lewis coming in on short notice and having a weakness on the ground, take Almeida to win by submission in Round 1 at +140.
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis Betting Card- Nascimento by Submission (+240)
- Dalby to win (+420)
- Almeida by Submission & Round 1 (+140)
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