Next Man Up: Potential 2024 Starting Rotation Contributors

Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson, and even Jose Butto provided valuable innings down the stretch for the Mets this season in the face of injuries to the rotation. Lucchesi, in particular, was incredibly successful with a 2.89 ERA in nine starts (46.2 innings), and he is an example of how unheralded depth signings can be crucial for wins.

While the Mets weren’t actually in the playoff race, making these up-and-down guys’ contributions not as important, their types of roles are always in demand, as shown by former Mets minor leaguer Allan Winans‘ several starts for the NL East winning Braves. While Lucchesi has a fairly robust MLB track record, many Mets minor leaguers have the chance to contribute to big league success in 2024, even if they don’t know it yet.

From a strategic standpoint, the Mets should load their Triple-A roster with MLB depth and sign high-upside free agents who can return to former glory or reach new heights. What always ends up happening, however, is that injuries add up, and homegrown minor league talent find their way to the big leagues. Let’s take a look at which of the Mets Minor League starters have a chance to contribute–whether as a mainstay or an up-and-down call-up–in the 2024 season.

Mike Vasil

Mike Vasil was lights out in MLB spring training against the Atlanta Braves in 2023 and has all the tools to be an MLB starter. He had a solid start to the 2023 season in Double-A, putting up an elite walk rate of 4.1% and an above-average strikeout rate of 29%. While he battled recurring back injuries and had some velocity fluctuations, he still averaged an above-average 93.8 mph on his four-seam fastball. His slider has some properties of a cutter but had good results at 86 mph, and he has a solid changeup and a fast slurve that he throws at 10% of the time.

Initially, he struggled upon his call up to Triple-A but performed better towards the end of the season, putting up four quality starts in the final two months of the season. He was a bit less in the zone in his poorer outings, resulting in an 11.7 BB% with Syracuse. If he finds more consistency in Syracuse to start next season, he should be a pretty low risk call up when the Mets need an arm.

Christian Scott ends a 1-2-3 first inning with heat ????#LetsGetRowdy | @chscott8 pic.twitter.com/DoJ9QJOsii

— Binghamton Rumble Ponies (@RumblePoniesBB) September 26, 2023

Christian Scott

Christian Scott is the most exciting arm on this list after his exceptional 2023 season that saw him win Mets MiLB pitcher of the year. His stats in the upper minors were nothing short of incredible. To keep it simple, his 3.5 BB% and 32.7 K% are enough to make any analyst ogle over him. No regression between High-A and Double-A is a good sign of things to come, but seeing Vasil’s Syracuse struggles, it might be worth a look in Triple-A before deciding if Scott is ready.

With that said, the ‘Stuff’ from Scott is elite enough to not need further evaluation, and if the Mets follow the Mariners’ model, they can call him straight up from Double-A and see instant MLB success. ‘Proving it’ at every Minor League level is certainly overrated and outdated, however, the Mets will likely have Scott start 2024 in Syracuse regardless of how well he does in Spring Training. He has the highest ceiling of this group and will almost certainly pitch in the Major Leagues in 2024.

Joander Suarez

Joander Suarez jumps onto this list after a phenomenal finish to the season, including a no-hitter and four hits allowed in his last 24 innings. His pitch arsenal isn’t as sexy as the first two pitchers on this list, but he has an even four-pitch mix that could easily stifle big-league hitters for a few innings just by messing with their timing and being unpredictable. His fastball averages a solid 93.5 mph with an average four-seam shape, and he has good depth on his changeup, a gyro slider in the low-to-mid 80s, and a mid-70s big slurve.

He has four different speeds and distinct movement profiles that he throws at hitters, and if you have four average MLB pitches with standard execution, a pitcher is an above-average Major Leaguer. While Suarez’s execution was certainly at that elite level at the end of the season, he would be a call up only if the Mets are riding the hot hand when he hits another scorching streak as he’s not the first prospect in line to make the journey to the Big Apple. The promise displayed at the end of the season may well earn him both a spot on the 40-man roster and with Syracuse to start the 2024 season.

7 shutout innings for Dom Hamel ???? pic.twitter.com/sa3WEQWTL6

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) September 22, 2023

Dominic Hamel

Dominic Hamel was a top prospect coming out of Dallas Baptist but has been inconsistent throughout his time in the Minor Leagues. Overall, his 2023 season was good: He put up above-average walk and strikeout rates and a 3.60 ERA in a sturdy 132 innings in Double-A. A workhorse when healthy, Hamel ate innings like a starter should. His inconsistencies are usually in the form of bouts of wildness, as he had nine outings with three or more walks.

In the second half of the season, however, he was much more consistent and finished the campaign with three earned runs in his last 33 innings. His fastball is a plus pitch, averaging an elite 19″ of vertical break at 93.5 mph, and he throws a sweeper in the low 80s in addition to both a change-up with depth and a slurve as his third and fourth pitches. He also occasionally throws a cutter around 90 mph to complete an arsenal that works well against both righties and lefties and could easily find success as is at the MLB level with good command of the zone. He, like the others on the list, will compete in Syracuse in 2024 to be the next man up in Queens.

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