Grammys Album of the Year predictions: Final in-depth analysis of the awards’ most prestigious category

The relatively scarce amount of big pop releases during this Grammys eligibility period (October 1, 2022 through September 15, 2023) might make for an interesting Album of the Year lineup, possibly opening the door for more genres to shine through on nominations morning. So at last, let’s see who could possibly make up the eight-nominee lineup this year.

If there’s any bet you can make this year, it’s that Taylor Swift’s “Midnights” will be nominated. Swift’s 10th studio album was a massive presence this year, achieving myriad records, including the biggest sales week of her career up to that point. It also launched multiple hit singles, including the chart-topper “Anti-Hero.” Swift is also having the year of her life, headlining possibly the biggest tour of all time, which resulted in the most successful concert film ever. The real question is whether Swift will be able to win her fourth Album of the Year title, which would be unprecedented, but more on that when nominations are out.

There’s another lock this year, though: SZA’s “SOS.” The singer’s amazing sophomore project was a critically acclaimed successor to her debut “Ctrl,” earning a whopping 90 score on Metacritic, and it also achieved  huge commercial feats. It spent 10 weeks atop the Billboard 200, making it the first album by a female artist to do so since Adele’s “25.” And it has notched multiple big hits, including the number-one “Kill Bill” and the number-two-peaking “Snooze.”

After Swift and SZA, there are a few likely inclusions. Olivia Rodrigo’s “Guts” is easily the biggest pop album of the year that isn’t by Swift, so it’s very much expected to be in the lineup. Pop is a huge branch of the academy, with a large share of nominees over the past two years being Best Pop Vocal Album submissions. Plus, coming off of her Grammy-winning “Sour,” it’s likely that there’s still a lot of love for Rodrigo. Another likely bet is Jon Batiste, who’s also coming off a Grammy-winning era, taking home Album of the Year two years ago for “We Are.” His new record, “World Music Radio,” is much more sonically diverse, drawing from Afrobeats, pop, and electronic music in addition to Batiste’s usual American roots and R&B stylings. And you might also want to bet on Morgan Wallen’s “One Thing at a Time.” While Wallen is admittedly controversial, it is likely that his album is simply too big to ignore. Plus, with the album still producing hits, it’s been top of mind for voters all year long.

That’s five spots, so who will take the remaining three? If the Grammys want an alternative to Wallen, there’s always Zach Bryan. His self-titled album is more Grammy-friendly — deeply personal and self-written — and he will likely have support from Americana voters too, an influential branch of the academy in recent years. Speaking of Americana, Brandy Clark also has a self-titled record that will be supported by her peers from that genre. Clark has previously been nominated in the general field at the Grammys: Best New Artist in 2015.

R&B is also strong in this category, getting two nominations in most years this past decade. So if SZA is one of them, you might look out for someone like Babyface to be the second one. Much like Mary J. Blige‘s “Good Morning Gorgeous” last year, his “Girls Night Out” might be helped by his high position on the ballot (alphabetical by artist name), as well as the fact that his collaborative album has many big names featured. And considering he got into Album of the Year at the Soul Train Awards, there is clearly hype for the record.

Since there weren’t as many high-profile pop releases as usual this season, there might be room for rock and alternative artists to land nominations. If so, bet on Foo Fighters. They are arguably the biggest rock field darlings alive right now, and their new record “But Here We Are” comes after the passing of their drummer Taylor Hawkins, which will surely move many voters. On the alt side of things, there’s Boygenius’s “The Record,” one of the year’s most acclaimed albums and a true Gen-Z sensation. And of course, there’s the influential Lana Del Rey, whose “Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd” is likely to receive support from both pop and alternative voters, with Del Rey being a two-time Pop Vocal Album nominee and an alternative icon.

There are a few more possibilities to round out the list of likely contenders. While the album itself underperformed, Miley Cyrus’s “Endless Summer Vacation” might get in simply due to the love for its lead single “Flowers” and the Grammys’ preference for pop records; it would be similar to Lizzo’s “Special” nomination last year. Soundtracks aren’t huge contenders for Album of the Year these days, but if one can succeed, it’s “Barbie,” especially with hits like “Barbie World,” “Dance the Night” and “What Was I Made For?” being possible nominees in their respective genres and the general field.

And last but not least, while a live album hasn’t been nominated in this category in ages, Joni Mitchell’s “Live at Newport” could defy that trend as it’s produced by Grammy darling Brandi Carlile. It would be similar to Bonnie Raitt’s surprise Song of the Year nomination (and even more surprising win) last year: an acknowledgement of an all-time Americana icon.

My Predictions: Babyface (“Girls Night Out — Extended”), Jon Batiste (“World Music Radio”), Boygenius (“The Record”), Zach Bryan (“Zach Bryan”), Olivia Rodrigo (“Guts”), Taylor Swift (“Midnights”), SZA (“SOS”), Morgan Wallen (“One Thing At A Time”)

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