NFL prop bets, Week 10: I believe in Tommy DeVito (to throw a bunch)

Remember last week, when I said a 1-9 record was proof positive I was trending toward a safe space where you could fade my picks and win some money? Yeah, that didn’t work out. A rebound 5-2 week kept these prop picks thoroughly unreliable, leaving me mired in an untrustable zone where both taking my advice and betting against it only serves to make you worse.

I dunno, man.

Look, I’m gonna keep churning these out in hopes I turned a corner. We hit 64 percent of these props last season, so there’s at least some room for optimism. Here’s who I like in Week 10; official plays are in bold.

Mac Jones UNDER 227.5 passing yards. He’s hit this total once in his last seven games.

Tommy DeVito OVER 165.5 passing yards. He’s gonna stink, but he’s gonna have to throw the ball a ton since the Giants will likely be trailing early as 17-point underdogs.

Derrick Henry OVER 69.5 rushing yards. He’s got a tough defensive matchup, but the Buccaneers’ run D is fallible and this is an attainable total for a workhorse back who’ll be lightening the load for a rookie QB. He’s also got four targets in each of Will Levis’s starts, so there’s value in OVER 13.5 receiving yards as well.

Aaron Jones OVER 45.5 rushing yards. Jones has a similarly shaky quarterback who struggles under pressure — exactly what TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith bring to the table. The Pittsburgh run defense is giving up 4.5 yards per carry this season, 26th-best in the NFL.

Michael Pittman Jr. OVER 62.5 receiving yards. Josh Downs is still battling a knee injury and the Patriots’ pass defense lacks the juice to consistently stop Indy’s WR1.

Jayden Reed OVER 24.5 receiving yards. He didn’t hit this last week but still had three catches on three targets. He’s an important piece of Jordan Love’s passing game and the Steelers are vulnerable at cornerback.

Last week: 5-2 (.714)
Season to date: 31-40 (.437)