NFL DFS Week 10 Bargain Picks: Leave It to Will Levis

Quarterbacks

I’m not a big Geno Smith fan, but this matchup looks awfully good on paper. The Commanders have allowed the fourth-most DFS points to quarterbacks this season including 19 passing touchdowns for an average of more than two per game. Smith certainly has the weapons, and they will be looking to bounce back after last week’s trouncing courtesy of the Ravens.

Did you see what C.J. Stroud did to this Bucs defense last week? I don’t expect 470 yards and five passing touchdowns from Levis, but then again, he did throw four TDs just two weeks ago in his NFL debut. This could easily be another great week for Levis, who has looked poised in his new role. Spend down for Levis and use the saved salary to pair him with veteran DeAndre Hopkins.

Running Backs

Do I trust Arthur Smith? No. So probably that means I should start Bijan Robinson after his presser this week. After all, this matchup is excellent for Atlanta runners. But Allgeier has the lower salary, so I’m going to lean his way this weekend as a bargain play. Allgeier owns 43% of the attempts for the Falcons this season despite playing only 37% of the snaps. He also has three rushing touchdowns.

This is not matchup-based at all, it’s simply taking advantage of the bargain salary for a player that could be hot. In fact, this Browns matchup is one of the toughest, and that’s why we are getting such a low price-point. The undrafted rookie impressed with 138 yards and a touchdown on nine attempts Sunday, and he could be in line to replace Justice Hill.

This is a serious dart throw, but hang with me here. If you read the DFS article yesterday, you know I am trusting Tony Pollard. But, in a game where the Cowboys are favored by 16.5, you have to think it’s possible that Dallas will rest its starters. That means we could see more of Dowdle at the end of the game. The Cowboys decimated the Giants in Week 1, 40-0, and in the meantime the Cowboys have gotten even better while the Giants have gotten even worse. New York has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns and 4.48 yards per carry this year. If you spend up everywhere else and need a flier, Dowdle could be your guy.

Wide Receivers

Ridley has been a disappointment to fantasy managers, but don’t let that steer you away from him this week vs. the 49ers who have been among the most generous to wideouts this season, allowing the fifth-most DFS points to the position and a 70.1% catch rate. This salary is too good to pass up. Ridley caught six passes for 83 yards vs. the Steelers in Week 8, and the team will be rested and competitive coming off its bye.

I’ve got to complete my Kyler stack from yesterday, and I’m betting the connection between Murray and Brown will still be there. Brown has a 26% target share and 50% of the team’s receiving touchdowns, and the Falcons have allowed the third-most touchdowns to wideouts this year (11).

Shaheed has a knack for big games, and the Vikings are generous to opposing wideouts. Shaheed has two top-12 finishes in the last four weeks.

I also like Romeo Doubs here, but Watson has the lower salary vs. a Steelers team that has allowed the sixth-most DFS points to wide receivers this year. Jordan Love spreads the ball around, so it could be any receiver in any given week for the Packers. I’m willing to bet on Watson at this salary.

Tight Ends

Yes, we are pushing the chips all in on a Kyler comeback -- mostly because the matchup is so nice. Teams have targeted their tight ends 73 times this season vs. the Falcons. That’s the second-highest rate in the league. They’re also allowing an average of 52 receiving yards per game this year alongside the most receptions (55).  With no Zach Ertz, McBride was targeted 14 times in Week 8 -- the last week Joshua Dobbs was at QB for the Cardinals. With Murray back, McBride should return to form and we can forget last week’s matchup with Clayton Tune vs. the Browns and take advantage of this bargain salary.

The matchup isn’t ideal, but we are betting on the recent trends for Otton. He had a career-best day last Sunday, logging 70 yards and two touchdowns, and he has seen 22 targets over the last two games, averaging 47 yards during that span, but we aren’t just chasing the points here. Otton played 100% of the snaps on Sunday, and he played at least 96% in every other game but one. Additionally, Otton’s 192 routes-run rank 10th among NFL tight ends.