Seth Lugo

Position: Starting Pitcher Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 11/07/1989 (33)

Traditional Stats: 26 GS, 8-7, 3.57 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 140 K, 146.1 IP
Advanced Stats: 2.8 fWAR, 3.83 FIP, 4.48 xERA, 6.0 BB%, 23.2 K%

Rundown

It all began for Seth Lugo when the New York Mets selected him in the 34th round of the 2011 MLB Draft. The lottery ticket would toil for several years in the minor league system before making his major league debut in 2016, helping the Mets achieve a wild card berth. In fact, his impressive rookie campaign consisted of 64 innings between starting and relief appearances, in which he accumulated a 2.67 ERA.

This would earn Lugo a spot on the 2017 roster, where he would spend most of his time as a starting pitcher. Consequently, the increase in volume caused a decrease in his production. In 101 1/3 innings, Lugo struck out 85 batters and pitched to a lackluster 4.71 ERA.

Since the starting pitcher position proved to be arduous for Lugo, the Mets decided to transition him to a bullpen role for the 2018 season. This move worked tremendously for the Mets and Lugo, as he had outstanding numbers. In the same amount of innings as the season prior, Lugo struck out 103 batters this time with a significantly lower 2.66 ERA.

Lugo’s excellence as a relief pitcher would translate to the 2019 season, where he thrived as a late-inning option for the Mets. In 61 appearances, he had a 2.70 ERA with 104 strikeouts in 80 innings. He served as a key contributor to the Mets’ hot streak in August that season, as he was indomitable in a number of key innings late in games.

This would be the best of Lugo as a relief pitcher, as he struggled in the shortened 2020 season, with a 5.15 ERA in 16 games. He started in some of those games, mainly due to the lack of depth within the Mets’ rotation.

However, he was quickly jettisoned back to a relief pitcher role in the following season, where he started to regain some of his old form. He pitched to a 3.50 ERA in 46 1/3 innings with 55 strikeouts. Consequently, he put up similar figures in the 2022 season with a little more volume. In 65 innings, he struck out 69 batters while accumulating a 3.60 ERA.

Lugo’s contract expired following this season, and he decided to take his talents to the San Diego Padres in his first time as a free agent. After several long arbitration years, Lugo cashed in on a two-year $15 million contract, with the second year being a player option. He has since declined this player option, again making him a free agent.

While the Mets expressed interest in retaining him during his initial free agency, Lugo’s attraction to the Padres stemmed from their ability to give him a spot in their starting rotation. This was a point of contention with the Mets during his time in New York, as he was disgruntled about being thrown into the bullpen.

As many Mets fans know, Lugo’s repertoire most notably includes his curveball, which has plagued hitters for several years now. In fact, that pitch generated a whiff rate of 26.4 percent, with an average spin rate of 3240 rpm in 2023.

Contract

The gamble of signing a short-term deal paid off for Lugo, as he is now a free agent who has established himself as a reliable starting pitcher option.

He earned $7.5 million last season, but his new contract will almost certainly eclipse that figure. Since he is on the older side at 33 years of age, it’s unlikely he would get a long-term deal. MLB Trade Rumors has his deal pegged at three years, $42 million.

That said, the market for starting pitchers is entirely different than the relief pitcher market, meaning that Lugo’s newly established pedigree as a starting pitcher will pay great dividends for him in the open market. Every team needs starting pitching, and Lugo can provide an instant boost once the large dominoes in the market fall.

Recommendation

David Stearns has expressed an open mind when it comes to pursuing upgrades for the Mets, and it would be advisable to look into a reunion with Seth Lugo. While he would probably not want to return to his role as a relief pitcher, the Mets now can offer a spot in their rotation to the right-handed pitcher. With the recent news of David Peterson‘s hip injury that will sideline him for several months, the need for starting pitching depth has become magnified.

Lugo’s familiarity with the organization could be helpful in negotiating a contract, as he spent more than a decade here. While he was displeased with their inability to convert him back to a starter before leaving for San Diego, perhaps the Mets could rekindle their previous relationship by signing him to play that role.

The post Free Agent Profile: Seth Lugo, RHP first appeared on Metsmerized Online.