Could QB Max Brown give Gators a better shot to upset FSU? | Analysis
GAINESVILLE — Florida will have a final chance to avoid a losing regular season and secure bowl eligibility when rival Florida State visits the Swamp.
Saturday night’s matchup will feature two teams with backup quarterbacks — UF’s Max Brown and FSU’s Tate Rodemaker — but little else in common.
The Gators (5-6) are 6.5-point underdogs on a four-game skid while the unbeaten Seminoles (11-0) are in the thick of the College Football Playoff conversation.
Rivalry games can be unpredictable, but the favorite has won the past six UF-FSU clashes.
Questions abound as coach Billy Napier pushes to flip the script to earn the Gators’ first win since an Oct. 14 comeback at South Carolina.
Does Brown give Gators a better chance at upset?
The athletic redshirt freshman provided a change of pace as Florida nearly beat No. 9 Missouri after starter Graham Mertz broke his collarbone. Brown’s running ability caught the Tigers flat-footed.
A fourth-and-4 pass to Kahleil Jackson was clutch. Brown’s 27-yard hook-up with Jackson on the next play traveled the farther through the air than any Florida completion.
Brown loses the element of surprise against the Seminoles.
But he’ll give Napier a chance to install some elements into UF’s attack missing with Mertz, a pure pocket passer injured at the end of an 11-yard run. It was one of four runs longer than 10 yards, with a long of 12, in 2023. Brown had three, including a 27-yarder, at Mizzou.
“Certainly Max is a little bit different type of player,” Napier said.
Brown also is Napier’s kind of quarterback.
Louisiana was 33-5 during his final three seasons with dual-threat quarterback Levi Lewis, who rushed for 1,278 yards, not including sacks, and 13 scores. Napier is sure to dig into his playbook.
“We just have to play a brand of football that’s relative to Max and his experience, what he knows and what he’s got confidence in,” he said.
While a costly botched handoff on Missouri’s 15-yard line undercut an emergency effort off the bench, confidence should not be an issue.
“He’s a baller,” veteran receiver Ricky Pearsall said. “He’s one of those guys — I don’t think the lights get too bright for him.”
Rarely are they brighter at Florida than in the Swamp at night against FSU. But Brown’s skill set gives him a chance to shine and ruin the ‘Noles’ season.
Will Mertz be back?
Mertz will turn 23 Dec. 6 and is coming off his best season. The redshirt junior has a COVID year and a chance to build on 2023 while setting the course for Florida’s future at QB.
Napier said Mertz will wait two weeks before deciding on surgery for his collarbone, an injury with a 6-8 week recovery in time for spring practices. The timeline for Mertz’s NFL decision comes first.
“How does he want to announce his decision, how does he want to go about that, we’ll let him do that,” Napier said.
Mertz could return to a more crowded quarterback room.
Five-star commit DJ Lagway has accounted for an astounding 71 touchdowns, including 56 passing and just 4 interceptions, in 12 games at Willis High School (Conroe, Texas). Brown also will factor if he continues to develop. Former Ohio State transfer Jack Miller III remains on the roster, but has been out all season with injury.
Mertz could provide leadership to the Gators, mentorship to the young QBs and continue to develop himself. He is tied for the SEC lead with a 72.9% completion rate, has 20 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions, surpassing all expectations following his transfer from Wisconsin.
The Gators also have fewer 30-yard completions (14) than all but one SEC team, a product of UF’s poor play up front and Mertz’s inaccuracy down the field.
Can Swamp fuel to a Gators’ upset?
UF’s home-field advantage has served Napier well. He’s 9-3 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, but 2-10 away from it.
Despite his program’s struggles, fans have continued to show up. The game marks the season’s fifth consecutive sellout, one more than Dan Mullen during three seasons excluding 2020 played amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
A capacity crowd of 90,751 was critical during the Gators’ Sept. 16 upset of Tennessee. With UF fans at a fever pitch, the Vols committed five false starts and had to burn two timeouts in their opening drive of the second half.
FSU inspires passion and vitriol like no other visiting opponent. An inexperienced QB like Rodemaker could wilt.
Amid another disappointing season, Gator Nation would enjoy nothing more than to end the Seminoles’ unbeaten season.
Could a losing season doom Napier?
A defeat would complete UF’s first losing regular season since 2017 and give Napier 1-7 record against rivals (FSU, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU) and the worst 25-game start by a Gators coach since Charley Pell began 9-15-1 in 1979-81.
But a 7-year, $51.8 million contract with a $31.6 million buyout, along the state of the program Napier inherited, should save him. After all, a quick fix could not be expected if Mullen left the program with a bad culture and not enough talent.
During the offseason, Napier will have a chance to fix what he has created. Several position groups are underperforming, the game day operation is too often out of sorts and the Gators’ lack of physicality is alarming.
An unflinching evaluation down to the studs is essential, including assistant coaches, analysts, the strength program and Napier himself as a play caller. Otherwise, even another year or two isn’t going to dramatically change the course of the program.
Edgar Thompson can be reached at egthompson@orlandosentinel.com