Jeffrey Wright (‘American Fiction’) vs. Greta Lee (‘Past Lives’) in close Gotham Awards race for Best Lead Performance

Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”) and Greta Lee (“Past Lives”) are neck-and-neck in the Gotham Awards race for Best Lead Performance. That’s according to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users who have placed their bets here in our predictions center. Make or update your own predictions before the awards are handed out on November 27.

Wright and Lee are currently tied with 7/1 odds. Wright stars in “American Fiction” as an English professor and author who is so frustrated by Black stereotypes in media that he decides to write a book chock full of those stereotypes out of protest — and that book becomes a hit. He’s backed by two Expert journalists, six Gold Derby Editors, six of our Top 24 Users and 11 of our All-Star Top 24. Lee, meanwhile, plays Nora, a woman separated for years from her childhood friend. She’s also predicted to win by two Experts. She’s additionally backed by three Editors, seven Top Users and six All-Stars.

The Gothams are especially challenging to predict since winners are decided by small juries of film professionals, leveling the playing field so that not just the highest-profile or the most-publicized nominees prevail. Last year, for instance, Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”) won this award over both of the eventual lead Oscar winners, Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) and Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”). The year before that the award was shared by eventual Oscar nominee Olivia Colman in “The Lost Daughter” and an under-the-radar performance by Frankie Faison in “The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain.”

So it’s clear the Gotham juries aren’t always steered in the same directions as other organizations. That’s, frankly, part of their appeal. The outcomes are often surprising, but can steer movie-lovers and later awards voters alike in interesting new directions.

Be sure to make your Gotham predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see this year’s contenders are faring in our Gotham odds. You can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced. And join the discussion on this and more taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movies forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.