Chris Perkins: Things to watch for in Friday’s Miami Dolphins-New York Jets matchup

MIAMI GARDENS — This one probably won’t be easy.

Yes, the Miami Dolphins (7-3), who are in first place in the AFC East, are heavily favored against the hapless New York Jets (4-6). And, yes, Miami is 7-0 against teams with losing records this season. 

But road games have been a concern for the Dolphins in the one-plus season of the Mike McDaniel era. Miami is 2-3 on the road this season and 5-9 away from Hard Rock Stadium under McDaniel.

Another thing that gets your attention is that this first-ever Black Friday matchup and its not only a road game, but it also comes on a short week. 

The bigger factor, and perhaps biggest factor, is the Jets are struggling. They’re on a three-game losing streak and they’ve scored 24 points in those games. They’ll start quarterback Tim Boyle, a 29-year-old fifth-year player who has played for Detroit, Green Bay and Chicago and is making his fourth start. He’s 0-3 with three touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 50.9 passer rating throughout his career.

Regardless, the Dolphins must take the Jets seriously.

Here are some things to watch for in Friday’s game: 

Short week preparations/adjustments

The Jets are making a quarterback change on a short week. That’s asking a lot. On top of that, many teams have devise new defenses, most employing some type of two-shell coverage to prevent explosive plays, to use against Miami’s speedy wide receivers. If that’s the case, the Jets’ weekly preparations become even more demanding. By the way, New York, which is 30th against the run (137.6 yards allowed per game) might also want to tweak its run defense against the Dolphins (143.0 ypg, second in league).

Miami should be fairly stable. There are questions whether starters such as right guard Robert Hunt (hamstring) and tight end Durham Smythe (ankle) will return to the lineup, and whether running back De’Von Achane (knee) will be available, but for the most part the Dolphins’ biggest adjustments will be compacting their weekly schedule and accommodating players returning from injury. 

CB play; CB vs. WR matchups

This will be fun on a few levels. These starting cornerback duos are both outstanding, although the Dolphins’ duo is clearly better. Still, Miami’s Jalen Ramsey, who seems headed for the Hall of Fame, and Xavien Howard, a two-time All Pro, and New York’s Sauce Gardner, an All Pro last year as a rookie, and D.J. Reed, a top-level player, are going to make life tough on the quarterbacks.

Ramsey, a three-time All Pro and six-time Pro Bowl selection, has three interceptions in three games. It’ll be interesting to see how often the Jets put wide receiver Garrett Wilson (57 receptions, 651 yards, two touchdowns) opposite Ramsey. Heck, it’ll be interesting to see whether Boyle has will throw at Ramsey. Remember, Ramsey and Howard, at least to this point, don’t flip sides or shadow receivers around the field.

On the other side, you’ve got to favor Miami’s wide receivers Tyreek Hill (79 receptions, 1,222 yards, nine touchdowns) and Jaylen Waddle (44 receptions, 577 yards, three touchdowns) against Gardner and Reed. Plus, Miami has quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is much better than Boyle.

There’s a lot of star power on both sides of the ball at cornerback and wide receiver. We’re almost guaranteed to see big plays by one or two guys in these matchups. 

Turnover margin

Miami is minus-4 this season, tied for 22nd, in turnover margin.

Tagovailoa has 21 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 10 games. Last season he had 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 13 games. The interceptions are a concern this season. Tagovailoa has thrown an interception in seven of Miami’s 10 games. Additionally, he lost a fumble last Sunday against Las Vegas in addition to throwing an interception. Turnovers are an equalizer for lesser-talented teams so Tagovailoa must be careful not to allow the Jets to stay in the game based on turnovers.

Miami’s defense has started producing turnovers recently, and that’ll help the turnover margin.

Dolphins defense to continue improving

The Dolphins defense is healthy and it’s starting to make plays. You saw what happened against Las Vegas among the three interceptions (two by Ramsey, one by edge rusher Jaelan Phillips) and two sacks. They had two sacks, including a strip-sack, against Kansas City and produced one turnover. They had three sacks and one interception against New England.

The defense is starting to get healthy and getting familiar with the new system under coordinator Vic Fangio. It’s starting to do its thing. Keep an eye on this group. It might be developing into a play-making, game-changing crew.

Tua in cold weather

We won’t make too much of this but Tagovailoa has had some of his worst statistical games (Buffalo in 2020, Denver in 2020, Tennessee in 2021) when the temperature at kickoff has been below 50 degrees. The high Friday is expected to be 47 degrees.

The cold weather didn’t affect Tagovailoa in Buffalo last year but he came away with a loss (32-29) nonetheless. Tagovailoa is 0-4 when the temperature is 50 degrees or colder at kickoff.