Pac-12 picks: Heavy favorites across the board on the final weekend (ever) of conference play

The final game of the final Saturday of the final Pac-12 regular season matches Cal and UCLA — a fitting pairing under the circumstances.

The schools have turned out the lights before.

In the summer of 1958, a massive pay-for-play scandal rocked what was then known as the Pacific Coast Conference. The Bears and Bruins, along with USC and Washington, agreed before the season that it would be their last school year of competition in the PCC.

Sound familiar?

It has been 110 days since the Pac-12’s version of Black Friday, Aug. 4, when Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah announced they would depart the conference next summer. USC and UCLA already had one foot out the door. Stanford and Cal would follow a few weeks later.

For three months, riveting on-field competition has played out against the backdrop of collapse.

Each week, we listened to marching bands play the National Anthem but heard the bugle call of ‘Taps.’

The same was true for the PCC in the fall of 1958, albeit with a twist: The four departing members made plans to form a new league, the Athletic Association of Western Universities (AAWU).

The following year, Stanford came aboard.

Then Washington State, Oregon and Oregon State joined, the name was changed to the Pac-8, and the conference moved forward into the era of L.A. dynasties and two additional rounds of expansion.

Now here we are, 65 years later, and the cause of death isn’t a pay-for-play scandal but, rather, gross mismanagement by two commissioners and a slew of university presidents that led to 10 schools joining other conferences.

Will the cycle of death-and-resurrection be repeated?

Washington State and Oregon State are planning to compete under the Pac-12 banner next season and perhaps in 2025, as well, with the possibility of adding schools from the Mountain West starting in 2026.

As this unprecedented season winds down and the bell tolls Saturday night in the Rose Bowl, a chapter six decades in the making comes to a close.

Pac-12 football as we know it is finished. It’s done. It won’t ever be the same.

But 65 years from now, might fans look back on this strange season as we look back on the fall of ’58 — as a period of chaos, death, disappointment … and rebirth?

To the picks …

Last week: 3-3
Season: 38-35-1
Five-star special: 6-6

All picks against the spread
Lines taken from BetMGM (via VegasInsider.com)

(All times Pacific)

Oregon State at Oregon (Friday)
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. on Fox
Line: Oregon -13.5 (total: 62.5)
Comment: A difficult assignment for the Beavers under any circumstances — they haven’t won in Autzen Stadium since 2007 — has an added challenge this week: the preparation. While OSU was grinding through a physically and emotionally taxing duel with Washington last weekend, the Ducks were in cruise control at Arizona State. The home team should be faster, fresher and highly motivated to lock up a spot in the conference championship. The short week only adds to Oregon’s edge.
Pick: Oregon

Colorado at Utah
Kickoff: 12 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Utah -21.5 (total: 52.5)
Comment: Both teams are staggering to the finish, with the Utes missing a slew of all-conference players to injury and the Buffaloes demoralized by seven losses in their past eight games. CU quarterback Shedeur Sanders is questionable this week — he’s “not feeling well,” according to his father, coach Deion Sanders. (We wouldn’t be feeling well, either, after being sacked approximately 918 times this season.) The point spread is steep enough that Utah needs defensive touchdowns to cover. That sounds about right to us.
Pick: Utah

Arizona at Arizona State
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ESPN
Line: Arizona -10.5 (total: 49.5)
Comment: There should be two betting lines: One in the event Oregon loses on Friday night and the Wildcats take the field in Tempe knowing a victory would vault them into the conference championship; and one for the expected circumstances, with Oregon winning and Arizona not having the added layer of motivation. Either way, the visitors are better across most positions. It might take a few quarters, but the Wildcats should be in control midway through the fourth. Oh, how the dynamics of this rivalry have changed. Just two years ago, ASU was favored by 20 points.
Pick: Arizona

Washington State at Washington
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on Fox
Line: Washington -16.5 (total: 67.5)
Comment: The big news earlier in the week — the schools have agreed to continue the series after UW leaves the Pac-12 — has no bearing on this matchup. What does matter: the environment. How will WSU quarterback Cam Ward handle the rowdy atmosphere in Husky Stadium and a UW defense that has improved significantly in the past month? We’re skeptical of Ward navigating the challenges but confident the Huskies will take advantage of every mistake and roll to a perfect regular season.
Pick: Washington

Notre Dame at Stanford
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Notre Dame -25.5 (total: 51.5)
Comment: The final football broadcast in Pac-12 Networks history should be closer than the point spread indicates. Notre Dame has produced several 40-point games against low-level competition, but the Irish have nothing at stake in this finale. Stanford’s weaknesses will be exposed, but we wonder if the sterile atmosphere will work in the home team’s favor by tempering Notre Dame’s energy and urgency. This screams out for a back-door cover with that huge betting line.
Pick: Stanford

Cal at UCLA
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Line: UCLA -9.5 (total: 52.5)
Comment: The final Pac-12 regular-season game carries significant stakes for the visitors, who must win to become bowl-eligible. The Bruins are fresh off an emotional victory over USC and have nothing tangible at stake — they are out of the conference race and headed to a mid-level bowl game. The Bears are vastly better on offense than in recent years but will have a difficult time with UCLA’s ferocious front seven. As a result, their defense must rise to the occasion and make this a one-score game in the fourth quarter, when a single play could fuel an upset.
Pick: Cal

Straight-up winners: Oregon, Utah, Arizona, Washington, Notre Dame and Cal

Five-star special: Cal. In a screwy week with so many huge favorites, we’ll take an underdog playing with a bowl bid on the line.

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