Spiders, Snakes, and Trolls: It’s a Very MFL Thanksgiving

This is the latest edition of the Movies Fantasy League newsletter. The drafting window for this season has closed, but you can still sign up to get the newsletter, which provides a weekly recap of box-office performance, awards nominations, and critical chatter on all the buzziest movies.

It’s been a rough month to be a questionable IP decision. Last week, the Marvel Cinematic Universe had to get out its Canada Goose parka to weather the cold shoulder The Marvels received. This week, it was The Hunger Games’ turn to feel the moviegoing public’s relative apathy. Hold on tight, we’re about to dive into the implications of all that indifference.

Meanwhile, there’s just one more week before the Fantasy League kicks into its next gear with the arrival of a wave of precursor awards. Ahead of that surge, we’re going to take a look at the current state of box-office points, including a handful of debuts this week. Why are Eli Roth and Paul Giamatti the all-stars of the week? Read on.

And are we about to give out the first-ever MFL mid-season bonus prize? We are. We’re about to give out the first-ever MFL mid-season bonus prize.

Box Office, Part 1: Who’s That at the Window? Hunger.

One week after The Marvels and anybody who had anything to do with it caught all varieties of hell after it made only $47 million in its opening weekend, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes opened to only $44 million and nobody seemed to care. That’s the expectations game for you: While the MCU established a 15-year standard for wall-to-wall box-office success, it’s been eight years since we’ve even seen a new Hunger Games movie. The franchise was already experiencing a box-office downturn with the two-part Mockingjay films, but even so, a $44 million opening for Songbirds & Snakes is awfully soft.

Nevertheless, that $44 million was enough to win the weekend at the box office, handing anyone who drafted Songbirds & Snakes 64 points. The film finished comfortably ahead of Trolls Band Together, which delivered a modest $30 million opening, good for 30 points and no bonuses. Truly, is no franchise sacred anymore?

With The Marvels dropping nearly 80 percent (it sits at a cumulative $65 million and 105 MFL points) and Five Nights at Freddy’s in its waning weeks, the only movie in the box-office top 5 to truly impress was Eli Roth’s Thanksgiving. The horror film, based on a fake trailer from 2007’s Grindhouse, proved that horror fans will show up when no one else will. And with that, Thanksgiving also becomes, for the moment, the year’s best $1 purchase by a healthy margin, having scored ten points off of a $10 million opening.

Box Office, Part 2: Paul Bearer (of Box-Office Success)

The Holdovers added 700 screens this weekend and pulled in another $3 million for a total of $8 million to date. That doesn’t exactly make it a phenomenon, even by Alexander Payne’s standards. People forget, but for a director who established himself early on as an indie guy, Payne’s movies have historically made pretty good money: The Descendants reached $82 million! Even Downsizing made $24 million.

But in the even narrower category of Movies Where Paul Giamatti Is First-Billed, The Holdovers is sitting pretty. It has already bested the domestic totals for American Splendor ($6 million) and Barney’s Version ($7 million) and is about to pass Win Win ($10 million). A long awards-season run, which seems in the cards for The Holdovers, will keep that cumulative number rising, though sadly the days when a movie could open small, get a bunch of nominations and then become a hit after the fact seem to be gone. Sideways, with a domestic box office of $71 million, doesn’t seem to be under any threat as Giamatti’s No. 1 movie of all time. Lady in the Water sits at No. 2 with $42 million, and The Holdovers certainly deserves to make more money than that. Can it?

You might be wondering: What does any of this Paul Giamatti trivia have to do with the 23 total points The Holdovers has earned for the people who drafted it? To which I respond: Nothing. But it’s fun, right? Barney’s Version made $12 million worldwide! Isn’t that insane??

Leaderboard

We have a new MFL points leader! In a wild twist, the margin between first and second place is still two points, same as last week. But congratulations to team tj23, which moves into first place on the back of those Hunger Games points. With a roster that includes The Hunger Games, The Marvels, Five Nights at Freddy’s, The Eras Tour, Exorcist: Beginnings, and The Creator, I wouldn’t get too comfortable in the top spot — but that’s no reason not to celebrate the achievement now, roughly 35 percent of our way through the MFL season. We happen to have a bonus prize, courtesy of Universal Home Entertainment: a copy of Oppenheimer, which is out in home release today. Congrats to tj23: You may not have Oppenheimer on your team, but you can at least have it on your digital bookshelf.

Second-place team Cruz Control also shot to the top with Hunger Games and Troll points and is currently pinning its awards hopes on All of Us Strangers and Killers of the Flower Moon.

You can see the full leaderboard here on the main MFL landing page.

News and Updates

Brace yourselves — the next six weeks are hopping:

Monday 11/27: Gotham Awards winners announced
Thursday 11/30: New York Film Critics Circle winners announced
Tuesday 12/5: Independent Spirit Awards nominations announced
Wednesday 12/6: National Board of Review winners announced
Sunday 12/10: Los Angeles Film Critics Association winners announced
Monday 12/11: Golden Globe Awards nominees announced
Thursday 12/14: Critics Choice Awards nominations announced
Thursday 12/21: Oscars shortlists announced

Also, since the Writers Guild of America announced that it’ll be postponing its WGA Awards to April (after the Oscars), we will be removing those awards from Fantasy League scoring for this year.

You can check out our landing page for the full schedule of awards announcements.

Looking Ahead

A busy Thanksgiving weekend will see the wide release of Napoleon, Ridley Scott’s latest epic (which means that cannons are fired, but additionally that the movie is very long). We’re also getting Disney’s Wish, the current recipient of a spirited ass-kicking from critics. In better-reviewed news, both The Holdovers and Saltburn are moving into wide release. All in all, this holiday weekend should have something for everyone, whether you’re into battles, songs, Paul Giamatti, or being horny. Many thanks for that.

Questions? Feedback? Can’t find your team or mini-league on the leaderboard? Drop us a line at moviesleague@vulture.com.