Patriots-Giants Betting Preview: Trends, Prop, Pick For Week 12
Patriots fans will be at a crossroads when New England travels to MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants.
The Week 12 matchup will have huge implications for the 2024 NFL Draft because the team that wins will have worse odds of landing a top-two pick in the draft. That will be important because if the Chicago Bears earned the No. 1 pick through the Carolina Panthers, they could trade out of the pick for a second year in a row, so teams who want either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye need to get one of the top two picks rather than hope one of those top quarterbacks falls to three.
Whether he intended to or not, Bill Belichick had yet to name a starter before Friday’s practice. It might not matter who starts between Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, Will Grier or Malik Cunningham, but one of those quarterbacks will face off against cult hero Tommy DeVito.
The undrafted rookie will face a tough test against Belichick’s defense, which has a strong record against freshman signal-callers. Rookie starters are a combined 6-for-24 with 25 touchdown passes and 44 interceptions against Belichick since 2000.
The Patriots head coach also is 16-7 after the bye week in his New England career. However, he’s 1-2 after the bye week since Tom Brady left in 2020.
Despite that, trends do favor the Patriots coming out of Week 12 with a win, but New England’s play doesn’t inspire confidence. If the Patriots were to lose, it would be their worst start since 1993. It’s a tough game to navigate, but for those who want to, we’ll do our best to break down the best way to do so.
Here’s all you need to know about this Sunday’s Patriots-Giants matchup from a betting perspective. All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
(-3.5) New England Patriots at New York Giants
Total: 33.5
When: Sunday, Nov. 26 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: MetLife Stadium; East Rutherford, New Jersey
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BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
New England is 3-12 against the spread in Mac Jones’ last 15 games as a starter, according to VSiN. Belichick has a strong straight-up record after the bye, and the head coach is 10-3 against the spread on the road after the bye, and he’s 11-4 against the spread after the bye. The Patriots are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games against the Giants, and New York is 19-6 in its last 25 games against teams with a losing record. Trends also favor the under with the Patriots going under the total in eight of their last 10 games as a favorite, and the Giants are 12-1-2 toward the under in their last 15 games as an underdog.
PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Demario Douglas over 46.5 (-115) — New England doesn’t have many weapons, especially after Kendrick Bourne suffered a season-ending injury. Douglas is the only pass-catcher who can offer the offense speed. No matter who starts for the Patriots, they should target the sixth-round rookie. The Giants’ secondary shouldn’t be a huge threat, and they’re 21st in defensive dropback EPA, so the matchup, on paper, should favor New England.
GIANTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Saquon Barkley over 20.5 receiving yards (-110) — DeVito had a 9.8 average depth of target last week against the Washington Commanders, so the rookie showed a willingness to push the ball down the field. However, Belichick’s defenses are great at disguising coverages, which could be overwhelming for DeVito. Barkley should be available for check-downs, and New England’s tackling hasn’t been crisp all season, so even a pass at the line of scrimmage could turn into a first down with Barkley’s high-end skills.
PICK: Giants +3.5 (-115)
This is going to be an ugly game, so laying points with the Patriots won’t ever feel good. Though, if you take the Giants, you’re also expecting more DeVito magic. At least that feels like the more fun side to support. It’s a tough total to take a lean in because this game could have multiple turnovers for both sides, which could shorten fields and speed up the game. We’re taking the Giants for more meme material, and at this point in the season, it’s more interesting to see the reaction to a Patriots loss rather than a win.