Oscars alert: Watch out for Penélope Cruz to (‘Ferrari’) to race off with nomination #5

We could write any number of articles about any number of Best Supporting Actress contenders, that’s how open this year’s category is after Lily Gladstone shifted from supporting to lead for her performance in “Killers of the Flower Moon.”

Our current predicted nominees are Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”), Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”), Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”), Taraji P. Henson (“The Color Purple”), and Jodie Foster (“Nyad”). However, any number of these performers could well drop out. Randolph’s warm performance seems like the only lock while Blunt feels like a good bet, too. But Blunt has been in a good position to secure an Oscar nomination before and still missed out so who’s to say that won’t happen again this year? Brooks, Henson, and Foster, meanwhile, all feel on shaky ground with the likes of Julianne Moore (“May December”), Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”), America Ferrera (“Barbie”), Viola Davis (“Air”), Sandra Hüller (“The Zone of Interest”), and Vanessa Kirby (“Napoleon”) all also competing for spots.

It’s perhaps Cruz who seems most likely to break into that category thanks to her stellar Oscars record and clear popularity with voters, particularly in recent years. Cruz stars as Laura Ferrari, the wife of Adam Driver‘s Enzo Ferrari in Michael Mann‘s sports biopic. The story follows Enzo and Laura in 1957 trying to recover from the death of their son while their marriage deteriorates. Enzo, facing bankruptcy, enters his Ferrari racing team into the 1957 Mille Miglia. While Driver may be front and center, it’s Cruz’s fierce performance that is the real, roaring star of the show.

Marlow Stern (Rolling Stone) proclaimed: “There is an unstoppable force at the center of Michael Mann’s ‘Ferrari.’ It is fast, fierce, and wildly unpredictable. One moment it has you in the throes of ecstasy; the next, fearing for your life… I’m talking, of course, about Penélope Cruz.”

Nick Schager (The Daily Beast) observed that “an electric Penélope Cruz speeds away with ‘Ferrari,'” writing: “Cruz masterfully expresses a cascading wave of longing, bitterness, rage, and sorrow. It’s as nuanced and moving a performance as the Oscar-winner has given since 2006’s ‘Volver,’ and it turns her sparring sessions with Driver into the film’s highlights.”

Ryan Lattanzio (Indie Wire) noted that Laura is “played with jilted, internalized rage by Penélope Cruz in her best performance since winning an Oscar for ‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona.'” He continued: “Cruz hijacks the wheel from her co-star in a grief-dazed but always alert and forceful turn, her face a stony wall that tells of great pain. (A wonderful closeup of her staring at Dino’s mausoleum brings on a wave of conflicting emotions that tell her whole story.)”

Cruz is clearly the best thing about the film and that’s always a great way to land an acting nomination, particularly in this category. Angela Bassett was nominated earlier this year for giving the standout performance in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” Similarly, Ariana DeBose won in 2022 for “West Side Story,” Glenn Close was nominated for “Hillbilly Elegy” in 2021, Kathy Bates was nominated for “Richard Jewell” in 2020, Regina King won in 2019 for “If Beale Street Could Talk,” and Mary J. Blige was nominated in 2018 for “Mudbound.”

Cruz also has plenty of big, Oscar moments that a performance typically needs to stay in the minds of voters and snag a nomination. Bassett had that speech in “Wakanda Forever,” Stephanie Hsu had a moving monologue and scene with Michelle Yeoh when she was nominated earlier this year for “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” and 2020 winner Laura Dern had a terrific speech about fatherhood and motherhood in “Marriage Story.” Cruz has several of those moments here in “Ferrari.”

Cruz’s big boost in terms of Oscar bids, however, is her recent return to the minds of academy voters. Cruz was previously nominated for Best Actress in 2007 for “Volver” before she won Best Supporting Actress in 2009 for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona.” She then earned another Best Supporting Actress bid for “Nine” in 2010. Then, in 2022, she returned to the Oscars with a Best Actress bid for “Parallel Mothers.” Just before that last film, she had returned to awards attention with “Pain & Glory,” which led to her co-star, Antonio Banderas securing a Best Actor bid. That was the starter. “Parallel Mothers” was the main course. And “Ferrari” could be the desert. She is clearly having a good moment and her nomination last year will keep her fresh in the minds of voters, giving her the Oscars after-glow benefit.

Olivia Colman benefitted from this trend when she landed a Best Supporting Actress bid in 2021 for “The Father” and a Best Actress nomination in 2022 for “The Lost Daughter” following her 2019 Best Actress victory for “The Favorite.” Similarly, Close returned to the attention of the academy in 2019 when she landed a Best Actress (and almost won) for “The Wife.” Two years later, she was nominated for Best Supporting Actress (again, alongside Colman) for “Hillbilly Elegy.” And Margot Robbie reaped a 2020 Best Supporting Actress nomination for “Bombshell” after she was nominated for Best Actress in 2018 for “I, Tonya.” Cruz could be the latest star to benefit from this.

Cruz is also just an easy pick. She gives a great, showy performance in a genre the academy likes (biopics) from a filmmaker many voters admire and respect (Mann). She is a previous nominee and winner. She is current and popular. And she is the standout in her film. In a category that hasn’t thrown up any truly solid contenders like the other acting categories have, voters may be scratching their heads as to who to nominate. Cruz is an easy choice. Voting for her would make voters’ lives easy. And being such an obvious choice could well lead Cruz to Oscar nomination number five.

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