Oscar Experts Typing: Is there room for Charles Melton and Dominic Sessa in Best Supporting Actor?

Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we tackle Best Supporting Actor, where four spots seem firm.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! It’s Black Friday and I’m hoping to score a deal on one of this year’s Best Supporting Actor underdogs. You won’t be surprised to hear that I went ahead and moved “May December” breakout Charles Melton into my predictions. The “Riverdale” star is among those actors who have most benefited from the end of the actors’ strike alongside fellow Best Supporting Actor hopeful Willem Dafoe and Best Actor faves Bradley Cooper and Colman Domingo. Plus, there just seems like a lot of real passion behind him — largely on Film Twitter, yes, which doesn’t necessarily matter because none of those people vote for Oscars, but the noise feels significant in terms of generating attention. It doesn’t hurt either that Melton gets to go to screenings of Todd Haynes’s wicked film alongside two Best Actress winners in Julianne Moore and Natalie Portman, both of whom excel in “May December.” That Melton more than holds his own onscreen opposite his lauded co-stars is obviously paramount, but he’s helped by his place in the movie’s story as well. Like Lily Gladstone in “Killers of the Flower Moon,” he’s the “heart and soul” of “May December.” People leave the Netflix comedy-drama feeling great empathy toward his emotionally stunted Joe and Melton helps Haynes land the plane. It feels like the type of performance that will find recognition with critics’ groups (doesn’t he seem like a future New York Film Critics Circle champ?) and precursor ceremonies like the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. So, yes, I’m easily swayed and always favor recency bias, but I think Melton has the goods and the passion to make the list. I still have Robert Downey Jr. and Ryan Gosling locked in as well, and following your lead, Willem Dafoe (who as mentioned has hit the ground running in terms of his campaign). So that leaves one spot for Mark Ruffalo or Robert De Niro. (My brief flirtation with Sterling K. Brown has come to an end for now, but I fully expect him to land a nomination somewhere this season.) I… can see both making it and missing it, but for now, I’ve dropped De Niro. He’s the GOAT, and this is his best performance in a bit. But the academy hasn’t been very keen on rewarding him in the last couple of decades, and I could see this being a situation where he gets a lot of four or five placements on the ballot, leaving him on the outside looking in because other contenders have more support. Am I crazy for this one, Joyce?

joyceeng: So you now have “Killers of the Flower Moon” getting one acting nomination? Never change. How soon before you drop Gladstone? A De Niro snub wouldn’t necessarily be shocking, but I wouldn’t go there yet. I feel like we may have indications that he’s vulnerable from the precursors, but right now, he could easily hit them all as well and be a filler nominee, especially if the contenders angling for the fifth spot have comparable support. Voters have been infatuated with double noms in this category since “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” ended the 26-year dry spell, so I’m erring on the side of double “Poor Things” for two veterans with multiple nominations under their belts. I suppose the argument against that is Ruffalo and Dafoe could split the vote, but that works more in the winner phase when you just pick one person. You nominate five and I feel like lots of “Poor Things” acolytes will jot down both. Plus, Dafoe, the lower-ranked of the two currently, has gotten in as a lone nominee the past two times. Now he’s in a top Best Picture player. Melton totally strikes me as an NYFCC winner. I said ages ago that perhaps “Barbie” is too big for Gosling to be the “cool” NYFCC pick because it’s so obvious. Melton is a great alternative. He’s fantastic in “May December,” embodying a stunted teen and a haggard middle-aged dad with pristine calibration. His campaign has been utterly charming with his mom’s kimchi, electronic billboards and all. But like I said last week, I could picture him hitting all the precursors and missing in the end to someone in a stronger film… like Dominic Sessa. “The Holdovers” continues to smash at the box office and I expect it to continue to do so as we inch toward Christmas. Like Melton opposite Moore and Portman, Sessa holds his own opposite Paul Giamatti and is a true breakout performance since this is his literal first role, not to mention a co-lead. The Lucas Hedges comps have been made already and I can see it happening. Even post-strike, his campaign has been quiet, though there have been many events and screenings for the film, but maybe that’s a good thing that he’s not peaking too soon?

SEE Experts slugfest: ‘The Color Purple’ enters the Oscar race — and could lock up one category

Christopher Rosen: Sessa does feel under-predicted at this point — I’m sure some out there still don’t even spell his name properly. But I agree he’s a formidable contender here, particularly because the movie has shown itself strong. Critics, audiences and industry professionals have “The Holdovers” fever and it remains a real dark horse Best Picture pick. As for my abandonment of De Niro: I’ll just say that the film’s entire campaign thus far has rightly been about Gladstone, and while it might seem reckless to think she is the lone nominee from “Flower Moon,” I think it’s very possible when she’s the focal point of the movie. Excuse me, the “heart and soul.” I wanted to flag a few other contenders here just for argument. We both saw “The Color Purple” recently and both found Colman Domingo quite compelling as Mister. I don’t think he’ll get a nomination but it definitely wouldn’t shock me, as he’s just great playing a difficult and abusive villain. There was a burst of enthusiasm around Peter Sarsgaard coming into the race with “Memory” when it was dated last month — but I haven’t really heard a lot about his candidacy or the film since the actors’ strike ended. Finally, I wanted to again flag Matt Damon for his scene-stealing turn in “Oppenheimer.” Once upon a time, I had him in — but I had to give up the ghost, particularly because other “Oppenheimer” boys like Alden Ehrenreich and David Krumholtz have captured the zeitgeist. It’s a shame because Damon is hitting his stride as a character actor, but I just don’t see going back to the mat for him any time soon.

joyceeng: It’s also clear after last weekend that Team Oppie’s supporting actor focus is Downey. “Oppenheimer” is spoiled with excellent supporting turns and could fill out this category on its own, but maybe this streamlined approach is for the best because everyone seems to have different non-RDJ faves. Damon’s priority might also be our beloved “Air,” in which he’s the lead and which he produced via his and Ben Affleck‘s talent-centered Artists Equity production company. I have seen “Memory” and Sarsgaard is devastating in it, but the film may be too small and the field too crowded for him to pull a Brian Tyree Henry (is there even an Eddie Redmayne in “The Good Nurse” this year?). Circling back to the person you just jettisoned, I can see SKB making it if “American Fiction” explodes. The cast is is now out on the trail, he dropped by “The Tonight Show” this week, and he plays the classic “troubled brother with a heart of gold.” He’s not unlike Danielle Brooks in “The Color Purple”: both enter their films as comic reliefs before getting some heartrending moments in the third act. This is just my segue to allow you to get on your soapbox for John Ortiz, as you stated you would last week.

SEE Oscar Experts Typing: How many supporting actress slots will ‘The Color Purple’ snag?

Christopher Rosen: Thank you fo the opportunity, Joyce. All love and respect to Brown (I’m still waving a flag for his underrated performance in “Waves”), John Ortiz maybe steals “American Fiction” from even Jeffrey Wright? I’ve loved Ortiz for decades now — any time he shows up in a film, it’s always a welcome appearance and he’s usually doing something special even if the material isn’t at his level. In “American Fiction,” he has the goods and runs with it — and, for my mileage, the best scenes in the movie are when Ortiz and Wright are mixing it up together. Ortiz won’t get nominated, but let this just be a plea for some regional critics’ group to consider the man, consider the film. </soapbox> I’ll leave you with the last word, Joyce, as I have to get ready to add to my physical media collection with some Black Friday deals.

joyceeng: Christopher Nolan and Guillermo del Toro are so proud! Ortiz is such a great Sixth Man in “American Fiction” and also delivers a vital monologue that would be his Oscar clip. I’ve stumped for Milo Machado Graner before, but I feel we haven’t spotlighted one of his key scene partners in “Anatomy of a Fall” enough. I’m, of course, talking about Messi as Snoop. The border collie has already won the Palme Dog for his soul-crushing performance that rivals that of humans. If he were eligible, every two-legged creature would have a ruff rough time taking down the top dog.

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