Red Sox Black Friday Deals? Five Under-The-Radar Potential Targets
The Boston Red Sox might need to pay up for premium talent this Major League Baseball offseason.
That could require opening their wallets for an impact free agent or surrendering high-end prospect capital as part of a blockbuster trade. Few things are cheap nowadays — and acquiring good MLB players is no exception.
Still, bargains exist. Oftentimes, we can’t truly identify them until we have the benefit of hindsight, able to weigh cost with actual performance. But it’s incumbent upon front office executives across the league to work in the margins to hopefully find value that leads to wins between the lines.
So, as we stumble into Black Friday — technically just another day on the offseason calendar — after gobbling up all of that Thanksgiving tryptophan, let’s celebrate the occasion by searching for doorbusters.
These under-the-radar players might not come cheap, per se, either in terms of contract or trade compensation. But they could provide the Red Sox with plenty of bang for their buck as they shop for the 2024 season.
FREE AGENTS
Luis Severino, SP
Remember when Severino was one of the best pitchers in the American League? It was a while ago. He earned back-to-back All-Star selections and finished third and ninth, respectively, in AL Cy Young voting in 2017 and 2018. But there’s obviously a strong baseline of talent with which to work, making him a low-risk, high-reward option on the open market ahead of his age-30 season.
Severino’s issue, of course, has been injuries. And he’s coming off a brutal 2023 in which he posted a 6.65 ERA in 19 appearances (18 starts) with the New York Yankees. There’s reason to be optimistic, though, because he remained mostly good when healthy in 2021 and 2022 after missing most of 2019 and all of 2020. The Athletic’s Eno Sarris even noted recently that the “velocity, shape, and spin on his pitches in 2023 were not all that bad” relative to the 504 2/3 excellent innings he pitched from 2017 to 2022.
MLB Trade Rumors recently projected a one-year, $14 million contract for Severino in free agency, a very reasonable pillow deal when you consider the upside.
Robert Stephenson, RP
It’s been a circuitous journey for Stephenson, a first-round pick of the Cincinnati Reds in 2011 who never quite lived up to the prospect hype — until last season. Now, he looks like someone capable of being one of the best relievers in baseball, thanks to a new-look pitch mix that leans heavily on a lights-out cutter.
After a trade to the Tampa Bay Rays last season, Stephenson posted a 2.35 ERA, a 2.45 FIP and a 0.678 WHIP in 42 relief appearances (38 1/3 innings). Only three pitchers (Félix Bautista, Aroldis Chapman and his teammate Pete Fairbanks) had a higher strikeout rate in that stretch, with Stephenson sitting down 42.9% of opposing hitters by way of the K.
Obviously, there’s some risk involved given Stephenson’s lackluster track record before arriving in Tampa Bay, where the Rays always seem to work their magic. But he has a very intriguing profile and will turn just 31 in February. While the Red Sox don’t necessarily need bullpen help, it would be cool to see what new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and new pitching coach Andrew Bailey could do with the right-hander in Boston.
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TRADE CANDIDATES
Ezequiel Duran, IF/OF, Texas Rangers
We mentioned Duran in a previous breakdown of the second basemen the Red Sox could target. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden recently reported the position is “a priority” for Boston this offseason. And basically, the selling point is what Duran could be over the next five years — he’s under club control through 2028 — rather than what he’s been to this point.
Duran has just 180 games (659 plate appearances) of MLB experience. He’s flashed upside in that time, posting a 106 OPS+ in 122 games last season, but there’s reason to believe he’s capable of more with consistent playing time and some tweaks to his offensive approach.
“Duran has the skill set to put up big numbers in Fenway Park,” CBS Sports’ Mike Axisa recently wrote while pointing to the 24-year-old’s “huge exit velocities.”
If the Rangers make Duran available, with a logjam in both the infield and outfield, the Red Sox should at least inquire. He’s versatile, as well, and therefore could fit in as Boston’s long-term solution at second base or bounce around if the club’s roster construction changes.
Christopher Morel, IF/OF, Chicago Cubs
Sometimes, Morel looks like a star, with Cubs fans reminded of Javier Báez’s rise to prominence. Other times, he looks lost, both at the plate and in the field. So, we’re dealing with a ton of variance here. But the ceiling is super high, if the Red Sox are confident they can hone his approach and find the ideal defensive home for the 24-year-old.
Morel blasted 26 home runs last season while posting an .821 OPS and a 116 OPS+. His Statcast page is full of red (95th percentile in barrel rate, 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate and 91st percentile in average exit velocity in 2023), which is good news. The bad news? It’s accompanied by a sea of blue (second percentile in whiff rate and 10th percentile in strikeout rate).
Like Duran, Morel could be a long-term solution at second base, as a young player under contract through 2028, or move to another position if the situation calls for it.
Paul Blackburn, SP, Oakland Athletics
By now, you’re probably familiar with the top free-agent starting pitchers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery) and the big-name trade candidates (Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Tyler Glasnow and Dylan Cease). But don’t sleep on Blackburn, a solid back-end option whose days in Oakland could be numbered amid the Athletics’ ongoing rebuild.
Blackburn’s numbers aren’t eye-popping. That said, he has two years remaining on his contract ahead of his age-30 season. And his track record is decent enough for a contending team looking to fill out its rotation.