Mailbag: Small Pac-12 buyouts, what’s next for the Pac-12 Networks and ACC, schedules for WSU and OSU, our thanks to you
The Hotline mailbag publishes each Friday. Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline.
Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
I’m seeing all these Pac-12 coaches on lists for schools with vacancies. Don’t Oregon, Washington, etc., have big buyouts or some other way to protect them from getting poached? — @brycetacoma
Only Oregon has significant protection. But even then, the schools likely to pursue Dan Lanning in coming seasons would have deep pockets and desperate donors.
Before we delve into the dollar figures, let’s provide some context on the general buyout situation across the conference: It’s paltry.
And it’s paltry because the schools pursued up-and-coming coaches.
That’s not a bad strategy when you lack the resources to secure A-listers, but the very nature of those negotiations typically leads to low-end compensation figures with small buyouts.
Washington’s Kalen DeBoer, hired in late 2021 after two seasons at Fresno State, earns just $4.2 million in Seattle and reportedly has a buyout of $12 million.
Arizona’s Jedd Fisch, a first-time head coach when he was appointed in December 2020, earns $3.25 million with a reported buyout of $5.5 million.
Oregon State’s Jonathan Smith, who was also a rookie when he took charge of his alma mater, received a contract extension last year — but only to $5.1 million. His buyout is a minuscule $3 million.
(Salary figures taken from USA Today’s salary database.)
Any school in the Big Ten or SEC — and some schools in the Big 12 — could afford those buyouts without thinking twice.
Lanning’s situation is different. Oregon was extremely proactive — a smart move by athletic director Rob Mullens — and reworked Lanning’s contract earlier this year. He earns $6.6 million with a buyout of $20 million.
But Lanning would only leave Oregon for schools that can afford the buyout and offer competitive benefits that cannot be found in Eugene: access to enough talent to compete for national titles every season.
We’re referring to the Alabamas and Georgias, if and when they have vacancies.
Lanning isn’t leaving Eugene for Texas A&M or Michigan State or any other school that has loads of cash but a difficult path to the national title.
The other coaches mentioned here are, for various reasons, more significant flight risks than Lanning.
DeBoer has Midwestern roots; Fisch doesn’t have ties to Tucson or Arizona; and Smith’s school is facing an uncertain future.
In each case, the contract offer could include a substantial raise.
We won’t begin to guess how the hiring cycle plays out, but you can bet on this: The sports agents will leverage the schools for every last dime.
Does Jonathan Smith love Oregon State enough to get them out of his contract (by taking the Michigan State job) given their expected financial woes ahead? — @JeffOtis
If I understand the question correctly, you’re suggesting Smith’s departure would benefit OSU by reducing its financial exposure in advance of the Pac-12’s dissolution.
And if that’s the case, the Hotline strongly disagrees with the premise.
Nothing about Smith leaving Corvallis would benefit the Beavers. Even if that exposure jumps by 50 percent during the ongoing contract negotiations, the Beavers should do everything possible to keep him.
Smith is more than an elite coach; he’s an elite coach for Oregon State. As an alumnus, he knows what works in Corvallis.
The Beavers could hire 10 coaches with similar credentials but no ties to OSU, and they wouldn’t fit the way Smith fits.
Almost four months later, I remain deeply confused as to why Stanford and Cal weren’t added by the Big 12 when the league added the Four Corners schools. — Doug W
The Big 12 is a poor fit for Stanford and Cal in many respects, and vice versa.
They aren’t really contiguous with the conference, at least not to the same degree as Arizona, ASU, Colorado and, by extension, Utah.
Granted, there is no geographic fit with the ACC, but everything else about that conference works better for the Bay Area tandem.
The Olympic sports, so crucial to each school’s athletic identity, are better suited for the ACC than the Big 12.
Institutionally, they are far more aligned with the ACC’s elite academic schools than the Big 12 universities.
Also, both Stanford and Cal have significant alumni bases on the Atlantic Coast, especially in the New York-Washington corridor.
Put another way: Nothing about them fits with a conference based in the Southern Plains; everything about them fits with a league on the Atlantic (or Pacific) Coast.
And our understanding is the Big 12’s media deal with ESPN and Fox allowed the conference to add four schools seamlessly, but beyond that, the finances were more complicated.
For the Big 12, the Four Corners work in every respect — as does a 16-school configuration.
Let’s say the ACC loses two schools each to the Big Ten and SEC (Florida State, Clemson, Virginia and North Carolina). Could the rest of the ACC, plus UConn and maybe Memphis or someone else, stay together? They’d still have their TV deal. — @JustR_02
The ACC’s deal with ESPN runs through 2036 and is holding the conference together; it would have gone the way of the dodo, and the Pac-12, without that long-haul agreement.
It’s possible the top football schools and biggest brands will buy their way out of the agreement at some point. In that situation, the whole conference could fracture, or the remaining members could stay together.
Adding Stanford, Cal and SMU helped insulate the ACC from realignment.
According to sources, the conference would violate its contract with ESPN if membership dips below 15 schools. As constructed (starting next summer), it could withstand the departures of Clemson and Florida State.
Whether the ACC would look to add other schools is unknown.
Do you think there’s another college football conference that might disband, as the Pac-12 will next season? Or do you consider what is occurring with the Pac-12 to be an anomaly? — @cool_brezze
The fate of the Mountain West beyond the 2025 season is uncertain, as some or all of the schools could end up competing under the Pac-12 banner.
We do not expect any of the Power Four leagues to disband in the next six or seven years given the existence of their media rights and grant-of-rights agreements. (The Big Ten’s deal is the first to expire, in 2030.)
But once we enter the 2030s, the current conference structure could dissolve as the top football schools form their own league with anywhere from 24 to 32 members.
The others will be relegated to the second level.
And there’s a chance, albeit slim, that economic pressures force the Power Four into a restructuring before 2030.
Can you summarize the fate of the Pac-12 Network and its employees? Does it continue to exist beyond the end of the current media contract, or are the obligations over at the end of the academic year? Can the lease of the San Ramon facility be broken if it ceases to exist? — @RockDawg3
The Pac-12 Networks’ distribution contracts with Comcast, Dish., etc., all expire after the 2023-24 school year. In that regard, the networks are headed to the dustbin of history, remembered as one of the worst strategic decisions in modern college athletics.
The production studio, now in San Ramon (in the Bay Area), has a multi-year lease believed to cost $1.5 million to $2 million annually. We don’t know the terms, but breaking the agreement will be expensive — that’s one of many liabilities facing the conference.
The studio and equipment could be used to broadcast events in the Pac-12’s next era, whatever form that takes with Washington State and Oregon State. But that’s a significant unknown.
Lastly, we are happy to report that, according to multiple sources, the conference offered severance packages to employees that were described as surprisingly fair given the circumstances.
How much of a benefit will it be to the six schools going to either the Big Ten or ACC for them to have greater TV exposure through the Big Ten and ACC Networks, compared to what they have now with the Pac-12 Networks? — @JustR_02
The short answer is that any network is better than the Pac-12 Networks, which are believed to have roughly 13 million subscribers.
The Big Ten Network is controlled by Fox, while the ACC Network is owned and operated by ESPN. The partnerships with major media companies created negotiating leverage for widespread distribution and meaningful revenue.
The platforms will help the incoming schools on numerous fronts, but perhaps not to the extent we could have expected a few years ago. These days, NIL opportunities drive recruiting more than media exposure.
But generally speaking, sure: The conference-affiliated networks will provide broad benefits the schools have not received with the Pac-12 Networks and their disastrous business model.
If Washington State and Oregon State can schedule enough Power Four opponents for the 2024 season, would that give these schools any advantage for the conference winner earning an automatic bid to the College Football Playoff, recruiting, retaining coaches and staying relevant? — @CelestialMosh
First, we should note that the ‘Pac-2’ is likely to happen. Barring a last-minute snag, WSU and OSU will compete as a two-team conference under the Pac-12 banner, as the Hotline reported last weekend.
However, the conference winner won’t have an automatic berth in the College Football Playoff. A change to the CFP selection rules will force the Cougars and Beavers to qualify through the at-large route.
Starting next year, the five highest-ranked conference championships and the seven highest-ranked non-champions will participate in the playoff. The latter is the competitive pool for WSU and OSU.
Second, their 2024 schedules won’t have many Power Four opponents.
The Cougars are set to face Washington in the Apple Cup, while the Beavers are under contract with Purdue (in Corvallis) and are expected to continue the Civil War with Oregon.
Unless there is a late change, their schedules will feature a heavy load of Group of Five opponents, especially Mountain West teams, and one or two opponents from the FCS.
There’s also the distinct possibility that WSU and OSU play a home-and-home series against each other.
What are the ‘Pac-2’ going to do for all their sports besides football? Play as Independents? — @NMinmyheart
Competing as Independents is not a viable option — not even Notre Dame’s Olympic sports are Independents. The Irish are members of the ACC in all sports but football.
Oregon State and Washington State are seeking a comprehensive partnership with the Mountain West.
Their football teams would compete under the Pac-12 banner but play six games against MW opponents, and their basketball teams and Olympic sports teams would compete as affiliate members of the MW.
If that plan falls through, the Beavers and Cougars would play Independent football schedules and attempt to place their basketball and Olympic sports teams in either the West Coast Conference or the Big West, or a combination therein.
But there is much work to be done on the logistics and financial fronts.
Wouldn’t 1) Oregon State beating Oregon, thus knocking the Ducks out of the CFP, combined with 2) Arizona beating Washington in the conference championship, thus knocking the Huskies out of the playoff, and 3) the Wildcats finally winning a conference title but not getting to play in the Rose Bowl, be a fitting end to Pac-12 football as we know it? — @bogeycat85
The Hotline could not have offered a better summary of the most Pac-12 ending ever: Two CFP contenders getting knocked out and a first-time champion not playing in the Rose Bowl would be a stunner … and yet so utterly predictable.
It’s not as far-fetched as it seems.
The Beavers beat Oregon last year; Arizona played the Huskies to a seven-point game in September in quarterback Noah Fifita’s first start; and the Wildcats, as you noted, have never won a Pac-10 or Pac-12 championship over their 45 years in the conference.
If they claim the title this year, they would be assigned to the Fiesta or Cotton Bowl because their white whale, the Rose Bowl, is hosting the CFP semifinals.
What are your favorite Thanksgiving side dishes? — @kmasterman
Sweet potatoes, and thanks for asking.
Also, a huge thanks to all Hotline readers for your support this year (and every year). This operation would not exist without you.
Here’s hoping everyone had a happy and safe holiday.
The stretch from Thanksgiving through Christmas — with the conference championship games and bowl bids, the transfer portal and early-signing window, coaching changes, NFL declarations and the Pac-12 legal fight — will be the busiest stretch of the year in college football.
The Hotline will be there every step of the way, providing news and analysis of every twist and turn.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.