NFC playoff picture: Don’t get too carried away with 49ers’ big win over tired Eagles

Before rendering the 49ers as the inevitable NFC top seed for the postseason, it’s worth revisiting Oct. 29.

They came in on a two-game losing streak to Cleveland and Minnesota, but this one was different. Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow did as he pleased, but beyond that, the 49ers looked a lot like the Philadelphia Eagles did on Sunday.

Cincinnati won 31-17, but in the aftermath, coach Kyle Shanahan admitted his team looked “slow and tired” and need of the upcoming Week 9 bye.

The 49ers returned healthy, refreshed and ready and have reeled off four straight, including Sunday’s 42-19 road win in Philadelphia, the site of last year’s NFC Championship Game title loss.

The NFL being what it is, the 49ers — despite being a game back of the Eagles — are the uncrowned king and the Eagles are yesterday’s news with some tough games the horizon.

Unlike the 49ers, the Eagles don’t have a bye to freshen up. But that doesn’t mean they still can’t find a second wind. No team gets to 10-1 by accident.  Philadelphia expended a lot of energy in 21-17 win over the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night, then came home and defeated Buffalo 37-34 in a grueling overtime game on the short week.

After Philly’s first two possession ended with red zone field goals, they ran out of gas. The way the Eagles were missing tackles on defense and were a step slow all day on offense had the 49ers vs. Bengals written all over it.

The 49ers looked like the better team going in despite having lost two more games, but not that much better.

If the two teams were to meet again and the Eagles got an early touchdown or two for some momentum, the 49ers wouldn’t be a lock regardless of whether the game is at Levi’s Stadium or Lincoln Financial Field.

How the NFC is aligned in terms of playoff seedings heading into Week 14:

IN PLAYOFF POSITION

1. Philadelphia (10-2): Shaquille Leonard comes to the rescue for a linebacking crew that needs some help. And he turned down the Cowboys, no less. We’ll find out a lot about the Eagles viability as a potential NFC repeat winner in how they respond from the hard lesson taught by the 49ers. Probably without security chief Dom DiSandro.

Next three weeks: at Dallas (9-3), at Seattle (6-6) vs. N.Y. Giants (4-8)

2. 49ers (9-3): Of the many impressive things that helped take down the Eagles was the controlled pass rush, which kept Jalen Hurts in the pocket and at the same time prevented him from taking off on off-schedule scampers. If you know anything about rush-first-ask-questions-later Kris Kocurek, it goes against every fiber of his being.

Next three weeks: vs. Seattle (6-6), at Arizona (3-10), vs. Baltimore (9-3)

3. Detroit (9-3): Look at the next three games and it’s not difficult to envision the Lions at 12-3 with three games remaining. Detroit looked a little vulnerable in letting New Orleans back in the game after an early 21-0 lead, but keeps putting games in the win column.

Next three weeks: at Chicago (4-8), vs. Denver (6-6), at Minnesota (6-6)

4. Atlanta (6-6): The Falcons are fine as long as they can keep Desmond Ridder under wraps by running the ball with Tyler Allgeier. As flawed as Atlanta is, it’s remarkable the Falcons are just a win away from last year’s win total. Alas, they may win too much to draft their future quarterback although a trade is a possibility.

Next three weeks: vs. Tampa Bay (5-7), at Carolina (1-11), vs. Indianapolis (7-5)

5. Dallas (9-3): It’s Dak Prescott’s world now, and we’re all just living in it. Why with a 122.1 passer rating with 13 touchdown passes and one interception, he’s almost playing at a Brock Purdy level for the Cowboys. Dak’s MVP chances go up dramatically if he can take down Hurts and the Eagles.

Next three weeks: vs. Philadelphia (10-2), at Buffalo (6-6), at Miami (9-3)

6. Minnesota (6-6): The Vikings had a week off to rest up, but the feeling here is that unfortunately the Joshua Dobbs story has just about run its course and even the return of Justin Jefferson for the first time since Week 5 won’t be able to keep it alive.

Next three weeks: at Las Vegas (5-7), at Cincinnati (6-6), vs. Detroit (9-3)

7. Green Bay (6-6): Don’t look now, but quarterback Jordan Love has been playing at a Pro Bowl level of late throwing to a band of young receivers Aaron Rodgers thought were too inexperienced. A hamstring injury to wideout Christian Watson didn’t look promising, however.

Next three weeks: at N.Y. Giants (4-8), vs. Tampa Bay (5-7), at Carolina (1-11)

STILL IN THE HUNT

8. L.A. Rams (6-6): Their record says it all. Perfectly capable of beating any team in the NFL (including the 49ers) when they’re rolling and of losing to any team in the NFL (even the Patriots) when they’re mistake-prone and lost. Watch them beat the Ravens and then lose to the Commanders and Saints.

Next three weeks: at Baltimore (9-3), vs. Washington (4-9), at New Orleans (5-7)

9. Seattle (6-6): Had scored three touchdowns in four games before exploding for 35 against Dallas and then losing anyway. A sub-.500 season would cause the Seahawks to rethink the whole Geno Smith thing and go looking for a quarterback. It was a great story while it lasted though.

Next three weeks: vs. 49ers (9-3), vs. Philadelphia (9-3), at Tennessee (4-8)

10. Tampa Bay (5-7): I stubbornly believe that this is the best team in the NFC South ahead of Atlanta and New Orleans but it’s sure hard to envision the Bucs any better than 8-9. In that division, however, eight wins could be enough to crash the playoff party and lose a first-round game.

Next three weeks: at Atlanta (6-6), at Green Bay (6-6) vs. Jacksonville (?-?)

11. New Orleans (5-7): Derek Carr throws an early pick to set up a touchdown, rallies the Saints from behind against Detroit, then gets KO’d by Bruce Irvin to go along with rib and shoulder injuries. New Orleans loses. There’s a dark cloud that continues to follow him around. But Dennis Allen says he’s OK, so there’s that.

Next three weeks: vs. Carolina (1-11), vs. N.Y. Giants (4-8), at L.A. Rams (6-6)

JOCKEYING FOR DRAFT POSITION

12. N.Y. Giants (4-8), 13. Chicago (4-8), 14. Washington (4-9), 15. Arizona (3-10), 16, Carolina (1-11).

SCOPING THE AFC

You know there’s a good chance Jacksonville’s season went sideways when Joe Buck said, “And now all eyes are on C.J. Beathard” after Trevor Lawrence was helped to the locker room with what looked to be a serious ankle injury. More information will be available Tuesday.

The first three seeds are rock solid, but Nos. 4 through 7 are shaky.

Current seeding for postseason

1. Miami (9-3), 2. Baltimore (9-3), 3. Kansas City (8-4), 4. Jacksonville (8-4), 5. Pittsburgh (7-5), 6. Cleveland (7-5), 7. Indianapolis (7-5).

Outside looking in

8. Houston (7-5), 9. Denver (6-6), 10. Cincinnati (6-6), 11. Buffalo (6-6), 12. L.A. Chargers (5-7), 13. Las Vegas (5-7), 14. N.Y. Jets (4-8), 15. Tennessee (4-8), 16. New England (2-10).