Mets Have Seventh-Best Odds for Top Six Draft Pick
The second ever MLB Lottery Draft will be held Tuesday December 5 at 5:30 pm ET. The New York Mets finished their 2023 season with a 75-87 record and will learn what order they will select in the 2024 MLB Draft.
According to the recently released odds, the New York Mets have a 4.3% chance at the top overall pick in the June 2024 draft. More importantly, however, it is vital the Mets finish with a top-six pick. Unlike their grim odds of landing the first pick, per Christopher Soto, the Mets’ odds of landing a top-six pick are 35.7%.
Outside of the first pick, the Mets’ odds for the second selection are 4.8%, 5.4% for the third, 6.0% for the fourth, 7.0% for the fifth and 8.2% for the sixth, per Christopher Soto, once more. Also of note, their odds can change depending on if the teams behind them get lucky and jump ahead.
Due to the aforementioned collective bargaining agreement, teams with a top-six pick do not face any penalties regardless of payroll. If a team finishes seventh, they are subject to draft penalties.
Since the Mets had the largest payroll in US professional sports history, they are subject to draft penalties. Should they lose the lottery and not garner a top-six pick, their draft position will drop ten spots.
We saw that happen last season. After losing in the Wild Card Series, they were slated to pick 22nd. However, because they surpassed the luxury tax threshold, their first pick was 32nd. They used that pick to select shortstop Colin Houck.
It is more than just drafting later. With a lower pick comes less bonus pool money.
Last year, the sixth pick had a slot value of $6.634 million. The 17th pick had a slot value of $4,169,700. That’s roughly $2.5 million less to use to draft players. That difference is equivalent to a first-round supplemental pick.
Having less bonus pool money available would restrict the Mets’ ability to draft players who want more money. It could also harm their ability to entice players to forgo their collegiate commitments. That goes double in the NIL era.
The draft lottery was instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement. Every team who missed the postseason has an opportunity to win the lottery. 2023 will be the second year the draft lottery is implemented.
Per the rules, the three worst teams have an 18.3% chance of winning the lottery. The thought to equally distribute the chances among the three worst teams was an effort to prevent tanking (as is the institution of the lottery itself). The teams with the best chance at the top pick are the Oakland Athletics, Kansas City Royals, and Colorado Rockies.
The odds then decrease from there in an inverse relationship to a team’s record. The San Francisco Giants have a 1% chance, with the Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, and Seattle Mariners having less than a 1% chance for the top pick.
The Mets have the seventh-best odds of landing the top pick, partially because the Washington Nationals won the second overall pick last season. Due to the size of their market, the Nationals are not permitted to be a part of this year’s lottery and cannot pick higher than tenth.
The MLB draft lottery will significantly impact not only who David Stearns can draft with his first pick as the president of baseball operations, but it will also impact who he can draft in later rounds. All told, this lottery will significantly impact the future of the Mets franchise.
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