Trade Profile: Emmanuel Clase, RHP
EMMANUEL CLASE
Position: Closer
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 25 (03/18/1998)
2023 Traditional Stats: 75 G, 72 2/3 IP, 3.22 ERA, 44 SV, 1.156 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 7.9 SO/9
2023 Advanced Stats: 130 ERA+, 2.91 FIP, 21.2 SO%, 5.3 BB%, 39.2 HardHit%, 55.2 GB%, .296 BABIP
RUNDOWN
Emmanuel Clase was once again a workhorse for the Guardians in 2023.
The Dominican native registered 72 2/3 innings last season, marking the third consecutive season where the right-hander has pitched at least 69 innings and the second straight season with at least 70 innings.
Consequently, Clase finished second overall (75) in the majors for games played behind Matt Brash (78). This feat is nothing new to Clase, who led the league with 77 appearances last year.
While Clase ate innings again in 2023, his overall numbers dipped. Clase registered a 3.22 ERA in 2023, which was higher than the sub-two ERAs he pitched to in 2022 and 2021.
Clase’s decline last season was partially due to his slider. His secondary pitch, which had an elite 42.7 whiff percentage in 2022, wasn’t as effective in 2023, and batters only whiffed 31.9% of the time at it.
Due to the ineffectiveness of his slider, batters produced a much better slash line against Clase. The league batted .242/.282/.327 against him last season, a significant increase from the .167/.200/.225 slashline from 2022.
The problem with Clase’s slider could be attributed to multiple factors. One, the pitch had less spin in 2023. The RPM of his slider decreased from 2653 in 2022 to 2586 last year, leading to fewer swings and misses.
Secondly, Clase’s pitch mix consists of only two pitches: a high-velocity cutter and a slider. Both pitches are within 10 miles per hour of each other and move in the same direction.
These combined factors led to batters making more consistent contact against Clase. Without his normal slider, batters only whiffed 30.8 percent of the time, and Clase’s SO/9 (7.9) dropped under eight for the first time in his career.
Still, despite declining numbers, Clase was one of the best closers in baseball last season. He led the league with 44 saves, 65 games finished, and made the All-Star team for the second year in a row.
Clase also had some encouraging advanced statistics. He finished with a lower FIP (2.91) than ERA (3.22) and had an abnormally high BABIP (.296) from previous years.
There’s no denying that Clase is still one of the best relievers in all of baseball. To go even further, one could argue that his lower-than-average numbers could be linked to this workload and not overall ability.
PACKAGE
The package for Clase might shock a lot of fans.
For starters, Clase has one of the team friendliest contracts on the market. He signed a five-year, $20 million extension with the Guardians in 2022 and is signed through 2026 with two club options for 2027 and 2028.
Before incentives kick in, Clase will make $2.5 million in 2024, $4.5 million in 2025, and $6 million in 2026. The two club options for 2027 and 2028 are both for $10 million.
In other terms, that contract is an absolute steal. For comparison, Edwin Díaz will make $17.25 million next year. Heck, even Adam Ottavino made more last year ($7.75 million) than Clase will make until his club options in 2027.
With all that in mind, the Mets will have many competitors in the Clase market. Acquiring him will be a challenge, and it won’t be cheap. The Guardians are reportedly trying to improve on offense and it will likely take a lot of capital to secure the All-Star closer.
Proposed Deal:
Mets receive: Emmanuel Clase
Guardians receive: Mark Vientos, Ryan Clifford (Mets’ No. 6 prospect), Dominic Hamel (Mets’ No. 16 prospect), Joel Díaz (Mets’ No. 26 prospect)
RECOMMENDATION
David Stearns should be all over Clase if he’s truly available.
Clase has been debatably the best reliever in baseball the last three years, is on a team-friendly contract, and would give the Mets the best one-two punch out of the bullpen across the majors.
Plus, the Mets need help in the bullpen. A lot of help. As it stands now, Díaz, Drew Smith, and Brooks Raley are the only reliable arms returning for 2024, leaving the Mets bullpen with one high-leverage arm and 143 1/3 innings to replace from last year.
Clase, however, won’t be an easy acquire for the Mets for a multitude of reasons. For starters, the Guardians want an offensive piece back in the trade that’s close to or MLB-ready.
The Mets don’t have a lot to offer in that department. Vientos makes the most sense, but a strong September might not be enough for the Guardians to bite. The Mets’ next most enticing, and moveable, piece is Jeff McNeil, who is at his lowest trade value right now.
Also, the trade package above might not be enough. Other teams could swoop in and make a deal centered around a major league-established bat. For example, the Phillies are in the reliever market and have also stated they are open to moving Nick Castellanos.
Even if the Mets meet the Guardians’ needs, Mike Chernoff doesn’t view moving Clase as a necessity. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com, the Guardians are open to trading the righty but only for the right price.
Still, with all these obstacles, the Mets should at least inquire. Clase behind Díaz would be a lethal combination and would instantly improve a sparse bullpen.
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