Oscars flashback: How was Cate Blanchett able to win the Best Actress Oscar for ‘Blue Jasmine’ anyway?

One decade ago this month, I presented a Gold Derby article titled “Five reasons why Cate Blanchett in ‘Blue Jasmine’ has the Best Actress Oscar in the (designer) bag.” By my calculations, she had everything working in her favor to produce an Oscar win. Some of the key points in my case for Cate included the flashiness of her performance, her likely Golden Globe and SAG Award victories, and my assessment that she could probably beat Sandra Bullock in the box office smash “Gravity.”

Fortunately for me (and Blanchett), my forecast proved to be correct. She swept all of the precursors, and ultimately became one of the biggest locks of the 86th Academy Awards. Of course, I’ll be the first to concede that not all of my early Oscar calls stick. And while Blanchett managed to reach the podium without a stumble, there were actually a number of factors that could have seriously ruined her Oscar chances. Here are five of them.

1. Her character was fiercely unsympathetic.
I often argue that it’s easy to win an Oscar for playing someone evil. It’s much more difficult to prevail for portraying someone unlikeable. And Blanchett’s blue “Jasmine” was somebody who was particularly hard to like. She was selfish, shallow and smug. Dishonest, deceitful and duplicitous. Gold Derby Founder and Editor-in-Chief Tom O’Neil often says that it helps to be “huggable” if you want to nab the Oscar. And Blanchett’s Jasmine was someone whom you wanted to smack more than smooch.

2. It wasn’t your classic Oscar role.
Blanchett wasn’t playing a real person. She wasn’t physically transformed onscreen. She wasn’t using a strange accent (the Australian actress was habitually inhabiting Americans). Her picture on the “Blue Jasmine” poster made her look like … well, Cate Blanchett. It would have been easy for academy members to decide that the part was well within her range — and not one that merited bestowing her the Oscar. This leads me to my next point.

3. She had lost for what were arguably much more challenging roles.
She astonished in 1998’s “Elizabeth.” She impressed in 2007’s “I’m Not There.” I’m not saying that her work in “Blue Jasmine” wasn’t superb. She was at the top of her game as always. But she didn’t top herself in such a way that made her undeniable for the Oscar. And since had Blanchett had already been honored as Best Supporting Actress for 2004’s “The Aviator,” the academy could have waited for a project in which she truly soared. (Ahem, “Tar,” anyone?)

4. “Blue Jasmine” failed to make the Best Picture lineup.
It did score nominations for Best Supporting Actress for Sally Hawkins plus Best Original Screenplay. But in an expanded category with room for up to 10 films, the fact that “Jasmine” missed while the likes of “Her”’and “Philomena” didn’t suggested that Blanchett might be vulnerable to a contender in a more celebrated Oscar entry.

5. Bullock could have given Blanchett a real run for her money.
Not only did “Gravity” hit double digit Oscar noms (tying it with “American Hustle”), many predicted that it would triumph over the ultimate champion, “12 Years a Slave.” And “Gravity” did showcase an intense, emotional and fiercely dramatic performance from Bullock. Had she not been rewarded for “The Blind Side” just four years earlier, she might have seen the force of “Gravity” pull in the prize. So while Blanchett did overcome Bullock, a slightly different race could have left Blanchett and her “Blue Jasmine” with a major case of the Oscar blues.

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