Brock Purdy Becomes Overwhelming MVP Favorite Following 49ers Sixth Consecutive Win
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San Francisco’s sixth consecutive double-digit victory resulted in oddsmakers installing the NFC West power as the overwhelming betting +200 favorite to win Super Bowl LVIII.
Brock Purdy, who ranks third in the NFL in touchdown passes (29), has become the prohibitive favorite (-190) to earn 2023 NFL MVP honors grabbing favoritism away from Dallas’ Dak Prescott (+450). The second-year signal-caller, who opened as +2500 long shot prior to the season, has been sensational during the 49ers winning streak posting a stellar 13:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (11-3) kept their possession of the No. 1 seed in the AFC after earning their eighth win in their last nine games. Baltimore, who is second in Super Bowl futures at odds of +550, will face their toughest test of the season in Week 16 when they head West to San Francisco as 5.5-point road underdogs to face the 49ers on Christmas night.
Josh Allen and the Bills (8-6) earned a dominant 31-10 victory over Dak Prescott and the high-powered Cowboys. Buffalo, who is 3-1 SU and ATS over their last four games, are back in the playoff hunt in the AFC. The Bills are 11.5-point road favorites over the Chargers on Saturday night to continue their quest to earn an AFC playoff berth.
Favorites possess an amazing 151-72 straight-up SU (67.7%) record this season and that trend continued in Week 15 as higher power ranked teams by oddsmakers posted a 9-3 (SU) mark. Only three underdogs - Carolina (+3), the Buccaneers (+4.5) and the Texans (+3) - pulled off outright upsets.
Bettors witnessed primetime games spilt in regards to total wagering on the week, with unders now owning a commanding 30-17 (63.8%) edge. In simple wagering terms, if a bettor were to blindly wager $100 on every primetime game this season they would find a profit of $1,329.
Two-Touchdown ‘Samuel’ Player Prop Parlay Gets Home At Odds +26900
One bettor named @dillonwolfe011 on X (formerly known as Twitter) placed a $15 "Two-Touchdown" parlay on players both having the last name "Samuel".
The investment consisted of wideouts Curtis Samuel (+3500) and Deebo Samuel (+650) finding the end zone twice in their respective matchups.
Deebo Samuel, who notched his second multiple touchdown effort in his last three games, continues to be the top passing weapon for Brock Purdy in San Francisco’s explosive offensive attack.
Curtis Samuel, who entered Week 15 scoring only six touchdowns in his last 34 games, hauled in his second touchdown of the second half with only 1:46 remaining in the Commanders 28-20 loss at Los Angeles.
The $15 wager at odds of +26900 returned an impressive payout of $4,050.
TEE TIME. We’re tied 24-24 with 39 seconds to go.
— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2023
????: #MINvsCIN on @NFLNetwork
????: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/vtmfEKvOLy pic.twitter.com/wkRhKTDiVD
Last-Minute ‘Two-Touchdown’ SGP Leads To Sweet Success
In Week 15, one bettor by the name of @GrayHendrix on X placed a two-touchdown same-game parlay just minutes prior to kickoff on Saturday.
The investment involved wideouts Tee Higgins and Jordan Addison scoring multiple touchdowns in the Bengals-Vikings clash.
Addison, who ranks tied for fourth in the NFL in receiving touchdowns, has been outstanding in his rookie season. After the dynamic wideout scored for the second time with only 3:48 remaining in the game the sweat was on to see if Higgins could also find the end zone for the second time.
The $5 wager at odds of +51473 returned $2,578 when Higgins hauled in an incredible game-tying touchdown with just :39 seconds remaining in Cincinnati’s thrilling 27-24 win over Minnesota.
Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Betting Landscape
In Week 15, bettors witnessed home teams go 7-5 SU and 8-3-1 ATS. On the year, home teams own a solid 123-95 SU (56.47%) mark, but road teams own the small ATS advantage at 109-102-7 ATS (51.7%) on the season.
*Editor's Note: International games (5 are not included in home / road stats
Bettors watched favorites go 9-3 SU while also grabbing the much-coveted edge versus the number posting a 8-3-1 ATS mark. Overall, favorites lead on the season with a 122-94-7 ATS (56.5%) edge on the year.
Games were lower scoring than oddsmakers expected posting a 8-4 mark to the under on the week. On the year, unders own a sizable lead with a mark of 125-97-1 (56.3%).
— Sports Fan (@sportsnow12345) December 18, 2023
Bad Beat
Blocked Extra-Point Hands Bettors Bad Beat
Bettors heavily wagered that the Rams-Commanders showdown would be the highest scoring game of the Week 15 Sunday slate.
Despite a 35-point second half, the highest listed total (48.5) stayed under the demand of oddsmakers in one of the most gut-wrenching ways.
After Curtis Samuel hauled in a touchdown with only 1:46 remaining, cutting the Rams lead to 28-20, bettors were ready to cash their tickets when Joey Slye was sent out to attempt the extra-point.
However, the bad beat of the week was delivered when Slye’s point-after attempt was blocked - resulting in the total staying under by the dreaded hook.
Significant Decisions In Favor of Sportsbooks In Week 15
71% of money on Atlanta -3
- Bryce Young and Carolina shocked Atlanta winning just their second game of the season in a 9-7 upset.
79% of money on Green Bay -4.5
- While bettors strongly backed Jordan Love and the Packers to beat Tampa Bay, Sportsbooks earned a huge victory when Baker Mayfield led the Buccaneers to a 34-20 road upset on the strength of four touchdown passes..
78% of money on Tennessee -3
- Bettors steamed the opening line from Houston -3.5 to +3.5 following the news that CJ Stroud and Nico Collins were out for the AFC South showdown. However, veteran Case Keenum made bettors pay for the disrespect. leading the Texans to a 19-16 win.
74% of money on Washington/LA Rams (48.5)
- Sports investors heavily backed a high-scoring affair between the Rams and Commanders but the week’s highest posted total of the week finished under oddsmakers projections as Los Angeles earned a 28-20 win.
SURVIVOR POOL
Recap
In Week 15, Survivor pool contestants around the country strongly selected the Rams (-6.5) over the Commanders, the Falcons (-3) over Carolina, Packers (-4) over the Buccaneers and the Chiefs (-6) over the Patriots.
The attraction of using favored teams is enhanced by the fact that in Survivor Pools, teams do not need to cover any spread - they just need to win the game.
In Week 15 of the NFL season, the Rams, Washington, Atlanta and Green Bay made up over 88% of the selections in Survivor contests.
While the Rams and Chiefs both won, many Survivor players were eliminated when Carolina (2-12) won just their second game of the season upsetting the Falcons. In addition, a stellar four-touchdown performance by Baker Mayfield took out a significant amount of entrants as Tampa Bay upset Green Bay at Lambeau Field, 34-20.
Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY Sports
Look-Ahead
Here are three games that will likely be heavily chosen by Survivor Pool entrants in Week 16.
Buffalo (-11.5) at LA Chargers
Philadelphia (-10.5) vs NY Giants
Kansas City (-10) vs Las Vegas
Despite teams in Survivor Pools only needing to win the game and not cover point spreads, entrants can only use each team once during the regular season making strategy on when to select a team vitally important.