ERCOT misattributes cause of record-hot 2023, avoids mentioning climate change

AUSTIN (KXAN) -- The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state's electric grid operator, released its winter outlook for power supply and demand ahead of a Board of Directors meeting to be held on Tuesday. Weather can heavily influence the power grid, as Texas experienced in the February 2021 freeze.

In its 2023-2024 winter outlook, ERCOT mentions that it has been a record-warm year in Texas and worldwide (January through October). But climate scientists say that the factors ERCOT is attributing the record heat to are not true and echo talking points of those who deny climate change.

We spoke with Dr. Andrew Dessler, professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University and Director of the Texas Center for Climate Studies, about ERCOT's claims and what is responsible for the heat.

Claim No. 1: Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption

The first thing ERCOT blames for the record heat is a massive underwater volcano that erupted in January, spewing massive amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere.

"Hunga Tonga was an enormous volcanic eruption -- the biggest in several decades," Dessler said. "And it injected a lot of water vapor into the upper atmosphere we call the stratosphere."

Water vapor, like carbon dioxide, is a heat-trapping gas that warms the atmosphere. But Dessler says this eruption had a negligible effect on global temperatures this year because while water vapor traps heat, the cloud of particulates also blocks sunlight.

"Our best estimate is that it had virtually no effect on the global climate," Dessler said.

Claim No. 2: Solar maximum

The second factor ERCOT blames for this year's record heat is a "solar maximum," a temporary increase in the amount of energy and heat output by the sun.

"The sun, you think it's constant, but in fact it kind of flickers like an old lightbulb," Dessler said. "It is five billion years old, after all."

The 11-year solar cycle brings brighter and dimmer periods of sun, and we are entering a brighter phase as measured by satellite. But Dessler says that this, too, is having a negligible impact.

"[It is] responsible for maybe a few hundredths of a degree over the past year or two," Dessler said.

Claim No. 3: El Niño

The final factor ERCOT attributes this year's record heat to is El Niño. But while El Niño does have a net warming effect on global temperatures, Dessler says it does not warm Texas.

"If you look at the whole globe, El Niño has a big impact and is probably responsible for a good fraction of the global warmth [we're experiencing]," Dessler said. "But if you look at Texas, El Niño actually has a very small impact on Texas temperatures, so it's just not a big factor."

What is responsible for the record heat?

Summer 2023 was the hottest on record at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, and the second-hottest ever observed at Camp Mabry. An extraordinary heatwave led to an all-time heat index record of 118° in Austin on Jun. 21, a record 45 consecutive days at or above 100° in Austin and a record 42 days at or above 105°.

"That heatwave is riding on top of a warmer base climate due to climate change," Dessler said. "Because we've been warming the climate and we've warmed the climate over the last century, any heatwave that occurs is going to be sitting on top of a warmer base climate."

We reached out to ERCOT and asked why there was no mention of climate change in its winter outlook. The meteorological articles they provided in response did cite the solar maximum, underwater volcano and El Niño as possible contributors, but the articles each also stated that climate change is the dominant source of the heat.

The ERCOT Board of Directors is holding a regular meeting Tuesday morning when their meteorologist will present the winter outlook. We will follow any updates on-air and on KXAN.com.