Biden’s 2024 election insurance policy might surprise you
Democrats are marching through various stages of grief as they contemplate President Joe Biden running for reelection in 2024. They have variously been hopeful, worried, frantic … and now they’re getting downright angry.
Far-left columnist Harold Meyerson, editor of the liberal magazine American Prospect, is furious that more Democrats have not jumped into the race. His latest piece asks, "Are the Democrats sleepwalking to disaster?" Disaster, of course, being the election of Donald Trump, who will bring the U.S. – according to Meyerson – to the "brink of authoritarian rule."
The former Washington Post writer says Biden has been an "excellent president," but is concerned that he is "the candidate least able to defeat Donald Trump." Meyerson is certainly not alone; a rising chorus of Democrat voices are urging Biden to step aside, including now, apparently, Barack Obama. The New York Post reports that the former president "knows this is going to be a close race" and "feels that Democrats very well could lose."
BIDEN APPROVAL RATING SINKS TO ALL-TIME LOW IN NEW NATIONAL POLL
The question is: who might replace Biden? Meyerson lofts Gavin Newsom as a possibility but notes that the California governor "lacks appeal to working-class voters (California has the lowest share of white working-class residents of any state save Hawaii)."
He also throws Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer into the mix but supposes she would "face misogynistic hurdles," deploying one of Hillary Clinton’s many excuses for losing in 2016. He totally ignores Vice President Kamala Harris, as do most commentators, even though tossing her aside could be risky for Democrats.
Here is the truth: the Democrat bench is terrible.
For months, Newsom has been the favored candidate of elite liberals. He’s reliably progressive, telegenic and has been running a stealth campaign to introduce himself to American voters.
Unfortunately for Newsom backers, the governor is slip-sliding towards oblivion. First, he surprisingly performed a major face-plant in his debate with Republican Ron DeSantis on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show. Most commentators, including myself, expected the glib Newsom to run rings around the supposedly wooden and inarticulate DeSantis.
Instead, Florida’s governor came armed with facts and figures showing his state beating out California on every major metric important to voters – cost of living, taxes, employment, homelessness and crime. Not only did DeSantis win on points, he also won on style. Newsom was smug, condescending and unlikeable. It was a wipeout.
Second, California’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office recently projected the state would run a 2024-25 budget deficit of $68 billion next year, twice as large as recorded in 2023-24. The projected gap is an all-time record, as is the state’s $310 billion spending plan. Commentators in California pounced on the news, with the Mercury News declaring "Newsom owns this mess." The editorial board reminded Californians that at the beginning of last year, Newsom "was bragging about the state’s $98 billion budget surplus." Oops.
Newsom was first elected governor in 2019; his proposed budget for the 2019-2020 fiscal year called for spending of $209 billion. So, in five years, the budget has skyrocketed nearly 50%; on a per-person basis, it has jumped 56%, because more than one million residents have fled the state’s high taxes and impossible business regulations.
Where has the money gone? More than 50 billion was allocated in the past two budgets for climate change, enormous funds handed to unions like the childcare workers group that is demanding a 25% pay hike and teachers who were given an 8.2% cost-of-living raise; taxpayer money has also funded a 10% increase in welfare payments, and numerous other progressive priorities.
Newsom’s mismanagement of California’s finances is a blueprint, as DeSantis charged in their debate, for how Democrats will crush the U.S. economy.
If Newsom falls appropriately by the wayside, could Governor Gretchen Whitmer be next up? Unlike Newsom, she represents an important swing state, and her favorability ratings in Michigan are better than the president’s.
In addition, she has a following with Black voters, which Newsom lacks. Politico reports that Democrats outside of Michigan have encouraged her to run, including members of the Congressional Black Caucus. Also, a female candidate could help Democrats next year keep the focus on abortion.
Polling shows Whitmer competing against Donald Trump more successfully than Biden, Harris or Newsom. In a month-old Fox News poll, all four Democrats lose to Trump, but Whitmer is down by only 2 points.
Still, the Michigan governor is remembered as the author of ludicrous COVID-19 mandates, such as allowing state residents to shop at hardware stores, but outlawing purchases of seeds or other gardening supplies.
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In addition, her state is losing population, like California, though less rapidly. Michigan has also acquired a large Muslim population, which could complicate Whitmer or Biden’s prospects in the state if Democrats continue to support Israel.
Further, rivals could go after Michigan’s governor for enacting tougher gun laws but failing to drive down crime in what some have called "America’s most dangerous state." The state harbors eight of the most crime-ridden cities in the U.S.
Whitmer’s main handicap, however, is that she is not well known nationally. In a recent Economist/YouGov poll, 31% of respondents said they would like to see the governor run for president, but a whopping 45% were "unsure." If the selection of a candidate falls to the Democrat convention next summer, Whitmer would have little time to introduce herself.
Harris is the obvious replacement should Biden bow out. But her approval ratings are even worse than the president’s, despite numerous efforts by her team and the White House to gin up support. The Real Clear Politics average approval shows her underwater by 20 points; her boss scores a negative 15 points. She also has worse favorable/unfavorable ratings than Donald Trump.
Newsom, Whitmer and Harris are all likely contenders should Biden withdraw from the race. Given their likely electability, Joe may be forgiven for staying put.