Nikki Haley rises in New Hampshire

Nikki Haley is seeing clear signs of momentum as the most competitive alternative to Donald Trump in the early voting state of New Hampshire.  

A recent poll from CBS News/YouGov shows Haley narrowing the gap against Trump in the Granite State, with the former president at 44 percent and Haley at 29 percent.  

The numbers are the latest indication that Haley is gaining momentum in the race for the GOP nomination. Still, Republicans acknowledge she faces an uphill climb to consolidate support with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) still in the race.  

“I'll be the first one to say Donald Trump remains the odds-on favorite to be the nominee,” said Republican strategist Jim Merrill. “There's no question about it. But there are a lot of variables that need to be played out yet, both on the ground in the early states and then with external events that nobody can control,”

“I think to this point Nikki Haley has achieved goal No. 1, which is to be viable down the stretch, and she did that by outlasting [Sen.] Tim Scott, outlasting [former Vice President] Mike Pence and other credible candidates where now she's got a shot,” Merrill added.  

Haley has seen a steady rise in New Hampshire polls over the last few months. As recently as Sept. 16, a polling average of New Hampshire surveys compiled by DecisionDesk HQ and The Hill found Trump leading the field with close to 44 percent, followed by biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Christie and DeSantis, with each around 9 percent. 

Fast forward to Dec. 16, and the DecisionDesk HQ/The Hill polling average of the state shows Haley in clear second place behind the former president. Trump comes in at 45 percent, Haley around 23 percent, Christie at 12 percent and DeSantis at 10 percent. 

Republican strategist Dave Carney cautioned that the CBS News/YouGov poll was only one data point, saying more polling needed to be done to see if it was a trend. But he acknowledged the strength of Haley’s campaign.

“Trump’s running a real campaign, but she's the only other one running a serious campaign that's not totally, 100 percent candidate-centric,” he said.  

Haley also got a jolt of momentum in the Granite State with last week’s endorsement from popular four-term Gov. Chris Sununu (R). She has also clinched several other prominent endorsements around the country, including from the Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity. 

On Monday, her campaign rolled out a slate of new endorsements from 50 current and former lawmakers, businessmen and other community officials in New Hampshire.

“Granite Staters are ready for a new generation of conservative leadership. As Nikki continues to surge, it’s clear this is a two-person race between Nikki and Donald Trump and we look forward to debating him one-to-one,” Haley campaign spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas told The Hill in a statement.  

DeSantis and Christie, meanwhile, are signaling that they have no plans to go anywhere for the time being. 

"What happens in New Hampshire will be significantly impacted by the outcome in Iowa, where the true Trump alternative will emerge,” DeSantis communications director Andrew Romeo said in a statement.

“And when Ron DeSantis comes out in that position, he will be joined by over 60 New Hampshire state legislators who stand ready to take the fight to the establishment and their candidates of yesteryear to return power to grassroots conservatives,” he added. 

DeSantis has received 100 endorsements from state and local leaders in the state, including 18 last month. Those who have endorsed the Florida governor in the Granite State include House Majority Leader Jason Osborne (R). He’s also received the endorsements of Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) and top Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats. 

Meanwhile, Christie, who has focused much of his campaign’s energy on New Hampshire, has polled at roughly third place in the Granite State and has enjoyed support from some leaders, including former Rep. Charlie Bass (R-N.H.).

Calls have grown in recent weeks from some Republicans for Christie to drop out of the race.

“I’m behind Nikki Haley,” Sununu told Fox News last week when asked if the former New Jersey governor should drop out. “I think they should all get out frankly, including former President Trump. I think everyone should kind of clear the way.”

But Christie has so far resisted those calls. In comments made to The Hill a week before Sununu’s endorsement of Haley, the Christie campaign brushed off Republican appeals for him to exit the race.

“First of all, I’d say, ‘Like who?’ because apparently people talk to reporters, but not to us,” said Christie campaign adviser Mike DuHaime at the time. “So you know, there’s been very little of that to us. I think the Haley camp is trying to manufacture this through some donors and through the press, and they do not have the courage to directly come to us and say that. They haven’t.” 

After Sununu’s endorsement, Christie told told Fox News Digital, "I’m not going anywhere, so let’s be really clear about that.” He added that it wasn’t Sununu’s job “to tell anybody when to get out.” 

Christie also defended himself after a recent editorial in the conservative publication National Review calling for him to drop out, insisting during an appearance on CBS’s “Face the Nation” Sunday that he still has a path forward.

Meanwhile, Trump still holds a sizeable lead over Haley, DeSantis and Christie in both early state and national polling despite facing four separate indictments and facing scutiny for some of his more recent remarks, including vowing last month to “root out the Communists, Marxists, Fascists, and Radical Left Thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our Country.” 

Tom Rath, a former New Hampshire attorney general, argued that the Haley campaign needed to articulate what comes next after the Granite State, expressing uncertainty about how well she will perform in her home state of South Carolina. 

“I think at some point they need to show either through data or, you know, conversations with folks like you, ‘Here's where we're going next and here's how we're going to do it,’” Rath said. 

Haley’s campaign sees the next phase of the race as a probable two-person match in South Carolina between her and Trump.  

The other question, Carney notes, is about the donors — particularly how long they’ll be able to stay in and support her beyond the early caucuses and primaries.  

“When you get to the large states — the Super Tuesday states — the question is, do her donors have enough patience to stick with her? And do they raise enough money ’cause these become media states,” Carney said.