Pac-12 power ratings: Brutal barrage of non-conference results offsets previous success against ranked opponents
The last weekend of heavy non-conference play proved suboptimal for the Pac-12.
In fact, it was downright awful.
The conference posted a 5-7 record from Friday through Sunday and was winless against power conference opponents.
Yep, it played six games against teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Big East, Big 12 and SEC — and lost them all.
Even worse: The Pac-12 lost the six games by an average of 13.5 points.
Only UCLA (seven) and Arizona (eight) managed single-digit defeats, to Ohio State and Purdue, respectively. Everyone else was beaten soundly.
And to make matters worse, none of the Pac-12’s five victories were against top-tier opponents outside the power leagues.
Instead, the list of vanquished foes featured Northern Colorado, Utah Valley, UTSA, Idaho and Seattle.
The resume damage more than offset any gains made the previous weekend, when the conference defeated four ranked opponents.
As a result, the Pac-12’s non-conference winning percentage stands at 65.8 (raw total: 77-40) with 14 games remaining before league play begins.
Most of the dates are against cupcakes, but even a 14-0 mark would not push the win rate to the threshold (70 percent) that historically leads to successful results on Selection Sunday.
To the power ratings …
1. Arizona (8-1)
Last week: 1
Results: lost to Purdue 92-84
Next up: vs. Alabama (Wednesday)
NET ranking: No. 2
Comment: Had you told us the Wildcats would score 84 points and hold Purdue star Zach Edey to 22, we would have presumed an Arizona victory. What went wrong? Purdue’s starting backcourt was 23-of-42 from the field.
2. Colorado (8-2)
Last week: 2
Results: beat Northern Colorado 90-68
Next up: vs. Utah Tech (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 38
Comment: If we’re picking nits with CU’s non-conference performance, the flaw isn’t a five-point loss to Colorado State. Instead, it’s the six-point loss to Florida State, which is currently under-.500 and slogging along with a NET ranking in the 130s.
3. Utah (8-2)
Last week: 3
Results: beat Utah Valley 76-62
Next up: vs. Bellarmine (Wednesday)
NET ranking: No. 31
Comment: Basketball school.
4. Washington (7-3)
Last week: 6
Results: beat Seattle 100-99 (2OT)
Next up: vs. Eastern Washington (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 48
Comment: The post-Gonzaga letdown was easy to predict, but we didn’t foresee the Huskies having to rally from a 16-point second half deficit to repel a crosstown opponent with losses to Utah Valley and Northern Arizona.
5. UCLA (5-4)
Last week: 4
Results: lost to Ohio State 67-60
Next up: vs. Cal State Northridge (Tuesday)
NET ranking: No. 118
Comment: The Bruins have one more chance to collect a premium non-conference victory, and it comes Friday against Maryland. (Although if we’re being honest, very little about the Terps is premium at the moment.)
6. Oregon (7-3)
Last week: 5
Results: beat Cal Baptist 76-55, lost to Syracuse 83-63
Next up: vs. Kent State (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 77
Comment: Something is wrong in Eugene. It might not be exactly the same issue that derailed them last season, but there’s an issue. Dana Altman has time for a course correction, but not as much as it seems.
7. USC (5-5)
Last week: 7
Results: lost to Auburn 91-75
Next up: vs. Alabama State (Tuesday)
NET ranking: No. 87
Comment: The most disappointing team in the Pac-12 thus far, and it’s not close.
8. Arizona State (6-4)
Last week: 8
Results: lost to TCU 79-59
Next up: vs. Northwestern (Wednesday)
NET ranking: No. 131
Comment: The Sun Devils have played two future Big 12 peers, Brigham Young and TCU, and lost both games by a combined 58 points.
9. Washington State (8-2)
Last week: 9
Results: lost to Santa Clara 69-61
Next up: vs. Boise State (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 43
Comment: With the Broncos looming, then a trip to the Mountain schools next week, WSU could have a four-game losing streak on its resume before the calendar turns.
10. Cal (3-7)
Last week: 10
Results: lost to Mississippi 88-78
Next up: vs. UC San Diego (Wednesday)
NET ranking: No. 240
Comment: We have reached the point in the power ratings where teams are essentially interchangeable and schedule strength varies widely.
11. Oregon State (7-3)
Last week: 11
Results: beat UTSA 66-65
Next up: vs. Idaho State (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 205
Comment: Defining life on the edge for the Beavers: Consecutive victories over Cal Poly, Utah Valley and UTSA by a grand total of 11 points.
12. Stanford (5-4)
Last week: 12
Results: beat Idaho 82-64
Next up: vs. San Diego State (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 160
Comment: The final non-conference game of Stanford’s season could be the last non-conference game of Jerod Haase’s tenure if the Cardinal doesn’t fare well in Pac-12 play.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.