College Stock Watch: Early NBA Draft Risers and Fallers
The 2024 NBA draft is not considered to be an especially strong one, particularly at the top. There is no surefire star in this class, let alone a transcendent prospect like Victor Wembanyama likely to anchor the top of all mock drafts this June. The prospect pool playing college basketball this year is even weaker, with several intriguing names playing either with G League Ignite or overseas rather than in the NCAA.
However, all the uncertainty at the top of draft boards does provide room for larger rises or falls in draft stock throughout this college season. Through a month and a half, here’s a look at some college names who’ve impressed and others who’ve faltered early on.
Jerry Larson/AP
Risers
Ja’Kobe Walter, Baylor
No prospect made a better first impression on college basketball than Walter, whose 28 points in a win over Auburn on the second day of the season remains one of the top performances by a freshman all year. Walter’s shot-making ability on the wing is special, as he’s capable of taking and making tough shots and has impressive range from beyond the arc for Baylor. He’s not an overly explosive ballhandler and struggles some to create space, but his scoring bag is advanced enough that he’s able to get to spots and score at all three levels. It feels at least possible that he’s the first college player off the board come June.
Reed Sheppard, Kentucky
Sheppard was often pegged as the long-term piece of Kentucky’s loaded recruiting class, the talented local product who’d bide his time behind the likes of D.J. Wagner and Rob Dillingham and develop into a multi-year contributor. Instead, there’s an argument to be made that Sheppard has been the best of the three so far this season, vaulting him into the first-round conversation of the 2024 draft. He was known as an elite shooter in high school, but knocking down 57% from downtown as he has so far is just absurd. Plus, Sheppard is much further along defensively than many expected, proving to be a legitimate pest on that end with outstanding instincts and effort at the point of attack. There will be questions about his overall upside that may stop him from climbing into the lottery, but Sheppard makes such a positive impact on winning that I’d bet on him outplaying his draft position once he gets to the league.
Ryan Dunn, Virginia
Dunn continues to put up outlier-level defensive numbers at Virginia, earning him the attention of NBA scouts. He’s currently averaging 2.5 blocks and 2.3 steals per game, numbers just one high-major player has put up across an entire season since 2000 (Nerlens Noel at Kentucky). His length, athleticism and instincts make him an elite defender both on and off the ball, and advanced metrics like box plus/minus rank him as one of the most impactful players overall in college basketball as a result. Dunn is limited offensively, especially as a shooter (9–36 from three across two college seasons), but in this draft, finding an impactful role player midway through the first round feels like strong value.
Other risers: Kobe Johnson (USC), Terrence Shannon Jr. (Illinois), Kevin McCullar Jr. (Kansas), Dalton Knecht (Tennessee), Carlton Carrington (Pittsburgh).
Fallers
Isaiah Collier, USC
It has been an uneven start to the season for Collier, who is the highest-rated recruit playing college basketball this season. Since a strong opening night showing against Kansas State, Collier has struggled, as have the Trojans, who’ve lost four of five heading into Tuesday’s clash with Alabama State. While he is an outstanding driver thanks to his physicality, Collier has been turnover-prone thus far, averaging 4.4 turnovers per game (the second-highest mark nationally). Those issues, combined with an inconsistent outside shooting stroke, make it harder to invest the No. 1 pick in him as of now, though there’s no clear choice at that spot and his high-floor playmaking ability keeps him in the conversation for that pick.
Tyrese Proctor, Duke
Proctor’s big sophomore leap forecasted by many hasn’t quite materialized, with the Australian point guard’s numbers looking quite similar to his freshman year production before being sidelined with an ankle injury earlier this month. He has been quiet in the Blue Devils’ biggest games thus far, struggling to make an impact against Arizona and Arkansas and even looking shaky at times in a 13-point, six-assist showing vs. Michigan State. Proctor’s ability to operate in ball screens still gives him first-round potential, but the leap into the top 10 that some expected seems less likely now than it did a couple months ago.
Riley Kugel, Florida
Another popular potential breakout choice after a strong finish to 2022–23, Kugel hasn’t put things together just yet for Florida. He’s averaging just 12.4 points per game and shooting below 30% from three through 10 games for the Gators, who’ve instead relied more on transfers Walter Clayton Jr. and Zyon Pullin to shoulder the load offensively. Kugel put up huge numbers once Colin Castleton went down late last season, showing off more self-creation ability in addition to his off-ball prowess. Finding his three-point stroke down the stretch could help him regain footing in the first-round conversation.
Other fallers: D.J. Wagner (Kentucky), Garwey Dual (Providence), Aday Mara (UCLA).