Is Drafting A QB With The Top Draft Choice A Game Changer? Recent History Says No

Most analysts will say an NFL team has to get the quarterback position right. General Managers salivate at the notion they can do just that every year. Since 2000, the top pick in the draft has been a quarterback 17 times. Conversely, there have been seven drafts (2000, 2006, 2008, 2013, 2014, 2017, and 2022) when a quarterback was not selected first overall. Note the Cleveland Browns passed on Patrick Mahomes in 2017. They waited for 2018 when they selected Baker Mayfield. More on Mayfield later.

This year, analysts were torn between C. J. Stroud and Bryce Young. Going all the way back to 1998, there were debates as to who should be taken first, Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf. In 2017, many thought the best QB was Mitch Trubisky. In 1999, Tim Couch went first overall, and Donovan McNabb, who proved to be the better QB, went second overall to Philadelphia.

Here are the 17 QBs selected with the first overall pick since 200:

2001, Michael Vick; 2002, David Carr; 2003, Carson Palmer; 2005, Alex Smith; 2007, JaMarcus Russel; 2008, Matthew Stafford; 2010, Sam Bradford; 2011, Cam Newton; 2012, Andrew Luck; 2015, Jameis Winston; 2016, Jared Goff; 2018, Baker Mayfield; 2019, Kyler Murray; 2020, Joe Burrow; 2021Trevor Lawrence; 2023, Bryce Young

Looking at this list, you find Super Bowl winners, QBs who were labeled busts doing well with other teams, and total failures. You don’t see names like Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, and Aaron Rodgers.

There is no exact science available to select that one quarterback every year, a surefire Hall of Fame play caller who will lead a team to multiple Super Bowl titles.

The current favorite to earn the MVP trophy this year, Brock Purdy, was the last player chosen in the 2022 draft. Injuries to Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance thrust Purdy to the starter’s role. The quarterback making eyes pop this year is undrafted free agent Tommy Devito. Another USDA, Jake Browning is doing well in place of Joe Burrow.

Through 14 games this season 49 QBs have started a game where their team has won. Several others have either started or seen some action during the season. The Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants have had three QBs start and win this season. An astounding FOUR QBs have started and been victorious for the Cleveland Browns. Joshua Dobbs has won games for two teams this year.

Based on what we have witnessed from general manager Ryan Poles, he is building this team with draft capital. Trading Fields for a second and third pick and choosing one of the QBs at the top of the draft is an option. Trading down to accumulate much better capital for this year and future years seems to be more likely.

Many argue that Fields isn’t worth the risk due to his inconsistent play so far. Baker Mayfield was deemed a bust after being the number one draft choice in 2018. He is now with his fourth team (3rd in just two seasons). Mayfield just became the first QB in history to walk into Lambeau Field and lead his team to victory, ending the day with a perfect passer rating of 158.3.

Unless Fields gets an endorsement from Poles and/or the coaching staff (who that may be also remains to be seen), we won’t know the answer until the new league year begins in March. Teams must exercise the fifth year option on 2021 first round draft choices by May 1, 2024 for the 2025 season.