Free Agent Profile: Jordan Hicks, RHP
Position: RP
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 9/6/1996 (27)
Traditional Stats: 65 G, 3-9, 3.29 ERA, 1.355 WHIP, 65 ⅔ IP, 81 K
Advanced Stats: 1.1 fWAR, 3.22 FIP, 3.30 xERA, 11.1 K’s per 9, 4.39 BB per 9
Rundown
Back in 2015, the St. Louis Cardinals selected Jordan Hicks in the third Round of the MLB Draft out of Cypress Creek High School in Houston, Texas. He would end up making his MLB debut in 2018 against the New York Mets as a 21-year-old.
It turns out that his first season in the bigs is the year that he made the most appearances he has had in a single season (73). He ended up recording six saves and had an ERA of 3.59 despite having the lowest strikeouts per nine innings of his career (8.1).
The next season is when Hicks earned more save opportunities with his electric fastball, recording 14 saves (career-high) across 2019. It set up to be a promising year for the then 22-year-old, but he ended up tearing the UCL in his right elbow.
After making the decision to opt out of the 2020 season during the COVID-19 pandemic due to injury and having Type 1 diabetes, Hicks returned in 2021, but he only appeared in 10 games as he ended up going on the injured list due to right elbow inflammation.
The 2022 season brought around more injury problems for Hicks—he went on the injured list twice due to a right forearm flexor strain and right arm fatigue/neck spasms—and had command issues on top of that (5.1 walks per 9 innings).
During the 2023 season, the Cardinals traded Hicks away at the trade deadline to the Toronto Blue Jays. Up in Canada, Hicks had the chance to pick up a few saves (four) for a contending team. In 24 innings for Toronto, he had a career-low three walks per nine to go with a 1.083 WHIP.
The key for Hicks is always going to be that fastball. According to FanGraphs, the average velocity on his fastball has been 100 miles-per-hour or higher in three of his five seasons. Last season, he threw his fastball 75% of the time and his slider usage went down from 31.6 to 23.3.
Despite the slider usage going down last year, Hicks was able to produce swings and misses with his five-pitch mix. According to Baseball Savant, he had a whiff percentage of 28.2%, which is the second-highest of his career (30.2% on 454 pitches in 2019).
Contract
While the upper end of the reliever market has yet to be active, Hicks is one of those pitchers who is going to be in demand because of his closer experience. He is an option that managers can use to finish the game or be a quality reliever in the later innings.
When MLB Trade Rumors did their contract predictions, they had Hicks receiving a four-year, $40 million deal. He is healing into his age-28 season, so it would make sense that a young reliever would make that amount of money, but can the health concerns justify that type of contract?
It might take four years to get a deal done if a team wants Hicks. Katie Woo of The Athletic had a report last year that said the Cardinals tried to extend Hicks before the trade deadline for three years, but they were unable to get a deal done. If he is going to turn down three years from St. Louis, it would be hard to think he is going to take three years from another big league club.
Recommendation
The New York Mets bullpen does need to add more velocity to the bullpen behind Edwin Díaz and Hicks could provide some extra closer depth as the club eases Diaz back into the fold after his injury last year. Plus, David Stearns has familiarity seeing Stearns from all the matchups the Brewers had against the St. Louis Cardinals. However, it would be hard to see the Mets taking a chance on Hicks with his injury history.
If his command improves, he has strong potential to be one of the better relievers in the game. However, if a lucrative long-term deal for a reliever is going to be the cost in this case, the organization might be better going with an option that is more reliable as they try to revamp the bullpen in 2024.
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