Box office preview: Christmas weekend delivers a Santa’s sack full of new releases

After many months of just a single wide release and only a scattering of studio releases, we get a whole slow of wide releases just in time for Christmas and the busiest portion of the holiday movie season. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

Before we get into that slew of new movies, it should be noted that few movies opening on the weekend before Christmas will debut huge. With Christmas Eve on Sunday, that day will be slower than usual, even though there should be a bump for all movies on Christmas Day Monday. (Caveat for those who play Gold Derby’s box office game: the Dec. 22 – Dec. 24 event only covers the three-day portion of the weekend, and it will be the last such box office game of the 2023 calendar year.)

In most normal circumstances, the big release of the weekend would be Warner Bros’ “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom,” returning Jason Momoa to the role that helped turn him into a superstar. 2018’s “Aquaman,” also directed by James Wan, grossed $335 million domestic and $1.1 billion worldwide, and the sequel brings back other characters played by Patrick Wilson, Nicole Kidman, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Dolph Lundgren and Amber Heard

The first worrying thing about the “Aquaman” sequel is that few critics will have a chance to see it before opening day. Usually, when a studio hides a movie as deliberately as Warners is hiding this one, they are not expecting many (if any) good reviews. There’s also the decline in interest towards superhero movies, as seen by the fact that “Shazam! Fury of the Gods,” “The Flash” and even “The Marvels” did disappointing business this year, with the last of them being the sequel to a global blockbuster, just like “Aquaman.”

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If “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” makes $40 to $50 million this weekend, not including Christmas Day, it probably won’t be seen as that big a flop, especially since it should still do a ton of business once people are done with school and work for the holidays. It’s easily the strongest of the holiday offerings after this past weekend’s “Wonka,” but there are many other options.

For instance, Universal is releasing its second animated film of the holiday movie season, “Migration,” the new movie from Illumination Entertainment (“Minions,” “Sing”), which involves … ducks. The voice cast for this one includes Elizabeth Banks, the ubiquitous Awkwafina, the even more ubiquitous Keegan-Michael Key, Carol Kane, Danny De Vito and more, but this is being released in the wake of “Wonka” with other animated movies like “Trolls Band Together” still in theaters. (I’m willing to bet that Disney’s “Wish” will land on Disney+ just before Christmas, with Disney not having any newer movies in theaters.)

As with “Trolls,” Universal opened “Migration” earlier overseas where it grossed just $12.3 million in 26 markets with a $2 million debut in Mexico just this past weekend, not a great sign for how it might do in North America. So far, there are no reviews out there either.

“Sing 2” opened with $22.3 million on this weekend in 2021, still somewhat at the height of a pandemic, but that was a sequel to a $270 million-grossing domestic hit. “Migration” will probably end up with $18 to 20 million, maybe more including Christmas Day, which is likely to put it in third place behind “Wonka” in its second weekend.

A romantic-comedy release isn’t uncommon for the holidays with Sony releasing “Anyone But You,” starring Sydney Sweeney (“Euphoria”) and Glen Powell (“Top Gun: Maverick”) into 2,800 theaters or more on Friday, hoping to bring in young women who may not have much interest in the other offerings. Directed by Will Gluck (“Easy A”), this might be a tough sell, especially on the weekend right before Christmas, so don’t expect more than $5 to 7 million, but it has enough fun romance and humor that it could pick up business among young women next week and end up making $40 million or more by January.

On top of that, A24 is releasing Sean Durkin‘s sports drama “The Iron Claw,” starring Zac Efron as Kevin Von Erich, the eldest brother of three other professional wrestlers in a family plagued by tragedy. The movie also stars Jeremy Allen White from “The Bear,” Harris Dickinson (“The King’s Man”), Holt McCallany and Maura Tierney, and it’s been received fairly well by critics with 90% on Rotten Tomatoes, at the time of this writing. The popularity of wrestling and that of Efron going back to his “High School Musical” days should help the movie get interest, although it’s a fairly grim affair that focuses more on the family drama than the in-ring sport. Without having a theater count, it’s hard to figure out how this might do, but figure on it opening in roughly 2,500 theaters, which should help put in the same range as “Anyone but You” to get into the top five for the weekend.

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Two films from India also open on Thursday, as both “Dunki” from Bollywood and the Telugu language “Salaar Part 1: Ceasefire” open in roughly 600 to 800 theaters. Although “Dunki” should benefit from its mega-superstar lead in Shah Rukh Khan (“Jawan,” “Pathaan”) – his last two movies this year grossing $17.5 million and $15.2 million just in North America – “Salaar” offers some of the epic action we’ve been seeing from “Tollywood” in recent years, with Prabhas, star of S.S. Rajamouli‘s popular “Baahubali” movies, in the lead. The latter should definitely have an advantage with younger audiences, especially since “Dunki” is likely to report its Thursday box office separately.

Also, Searchlight will expand Yorgos Lanthimos‘ “Poor Things,” starring Emma Stone, into over 800 theaters this weekend, which should help it keep a place in the top 10 this week despite all of those other movies mentioned above.

Opening in limited release Friday is Andrew Haigh‘s acclaimed drama “All of Us Strangers,” starring Andrew Scott, as a man whose parents died when he was but a lad who has a chance to reconnect with them. Also starring Paul Mescal, Jamie Bell and Claire Foy, the movie has been received quite well critically but with no word from Searchlight Studios when it might expand nationwide. Other limited releases out Friday include Michel Franco‘s “Memory,” starring Jessica Chastain and Peter Sarsgaard, as well as “Freud’s Last Session,” starring Anthony Hopkins and Matthew Goode, from Sony Classics.

Monday is Christmas Day, and believe it or not, there are three more wide releases: Warners’ “The Color Purple,” Michael Mann‘s “Ferrari” and George Clooney‘s “The Boys in the Boat.”

“The Color Purple” is going to be the big movie, probably winning Christmas Day or going neck-and-neck with “Aquaman,” since the original Alice Walker novel is hugely popular, as was Steven Spielberg‘s 1986 adaptation (receiving 11 Oscar nominations). There’s also the hit Broadway musical, on which the movie is based. Fantasia Barrino-Taylor reprises the role of Celie, for which she won a Tony, and then Danielle Brooks (from “Orange is the New Black”) reprises her role as Sophie from a later Broadway staging. Both actors have been in the awards conversation after receiving Golden Globes nominations, and Brooks is already a three-time SAG Award winner from “Orange is the New Black.” The movie also stars Colman Domingo, who is getting tons of his own awards buzz for “Rustin,” previous Oscar nominee Taraji P. Henson and more.

The movie is directed by Blitz Bazawule (Beyoncé‘s “Black is King”), and it has a lot going for it, since it’s likely to be a huge draw for Black audiences, who really haven’t had much directed towards them nationwide other than the Beyoncé movie. Oddly, Warner Bros. has been keeping reviews hidden for this one as well, although they should be out by the time you read this. Expect “The Color Purple” to make $6 to 7 million on Christmas Day and probably still have enough business to bring in $15 to 16 million on the weekend before New Year’s.

Clooney’s rowing drama would probably be the underdog of next week, if it wasn’t going up against Michael Mann’s racing drama, starring Adam Driver, who may be a slight bit bigger of a draw than Joel Edgerton. In both cases, one wonders why the two movies would be released on the exact same day and in the wake of “The Iron Claw.” At least “Ferrari” did the festival circuit, unlike those other two, and reviews have generally been strong for that one, even if it is targeting the exact same male audience as “The Iron Claw,” leaving both of them struggling for scraps by the weekend of December 29. The mixed reviews for Clooney’s movie certainly won’t help it with its targeted older audience.

Steve McQueen‘s four-hour Holocaust doc “Occupied City” and the German Oscar selection “The Teacher’s Lounge” will also open in limited release on Christmas Day.

That’s it for this year’s weekend previews, although we should have a write-up of the Christmas weekend box office sometime next week, as well as a preview of January 2024.

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