Maryland unveils official roadmap for slashing emissions by 2031

To achieve Maryland’s mandated greenhouse gas emission reductions over the next eight years, state officials will seek to implement a suite of new policies — and come up with about $1 billion per year in extra funding — according to a new plan set to be released Thursday by the Maryland Department of the Environment.

The document, which was shared with The Baltimore Sun, is the state’s blueprint for reducing its output of globe-warming emissions 60% (based on 2006 levels) by 2031, a target set by the General Assembly.

The plan says it focuses on “how to stop digging the hole we are in” by transitioning the state from the fossil fuel era to a renewable energy future. Other plans still to come will tackle “how to climb out as the walls of the hole start crumbling,” according to the document.

“In the near term, Maryland’s climate will continue to get warmer, wetter, and wilder regardless of how this plan is implemented,” it said. “Sea levels will continue rising. Maryland’s low-lying farms will be increasingly affected by saltwater intrusion. Islands throughout the Chesapeake Bay and much of Dorchester County will be lost to the sea by the end of this century. Maryland’s climate in 50 years could resemble Mississippi’s climate today.”

The hope is that the plan can slow the bleeding — by rapidly reducing Maryland’s small slice of the global emissions pie.

If it works, the plan could yield an estimated $1.2 billion in public health benefits, $2.5 billion in increased personal income, and a net gain of 27,400 jobs in Maryland by 2031, compared to current policies.

But getting there is expected to take a significant influx of state funding — during a time when the budget is tight — and a host of new policies to foster the generation of clean electricity and make it feasible for Marylanders to use that energy, rather than fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas.

“It’s going to be tough on on all of us,” said Maryland Secretary of the Environment Serena McIlwain in an interview. “It won’t be easy, and it will require funding, but I’m very positive.”

The plan includes a recommended to-do list for key state agencies like MDE, the Maryland Energy Administration and the Maryland Department of Transportation — as well as the legislature.

For instance, the plan recommends creating incentive programs that would reward Marylanders with thousands of dollars in rebates for purchasing electric vehicles, handed over directly at the point of sale.

It also recommends reimbursement programs that could cover electrifying individual homes, by installing electric heat pumps, for example. The plan recommends that the state cover 100% of the costs for low- and moderate-income households, and 50% of the costs for middle-income households.

The plan focuses on providing incentives at “key decision points” for Marylanders.

“When a furnace needs to be replaced, a homeowner would have access to incentives that make the decision to electrify economical,” the plan reads. “When it is time to replace a gas-powered vehicle at the end of its useful life, consumers would have affordable options to purchase an EV and easy access to a reliable charging network.”

The state agencies are also supposed to look into creating big-picture regulations like a “Clean Power Standard,” which would require all the electricity used in Maryland to be generated by renewable sources by 2035. The current requirement is 50% renewable energy by 2030.

The plan recommends that MEA figure out whether it already has the power to put forward such a rule, and how it could be done. But on other policies, state agencies are to begin rulemaking in 2024, according to the plan. That includes a policy that would require all heating systems newly installed in Maryland buildings to produce zero emissions, beginning later this decade.

“We’ve been consulting with the [Maryland] climate commission on that for about a year now,” said Chris Hoagland, director of MDE’s air and radiation administration. “We intend to continue to lean on these public processes to bring in all the perspectives we need for all of the items identified for further consideration.”

Kim Coble, the executive director of the League of Conservation Voters and a co-chair of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change, was able to review the report before its release. She said it includes lots of strong policies, including several that have been long-discussed in the environmental community, but which have struggled to pass in the legislature.

“To have the MDE come out and say, ‘These are the steps that we will have to take to get the emissions reductions,’ is really heartening and encouraging,” Coble said. “Now, we turn to the Maryland General Assembly and the administration to make sure that we can get them across the finish line.”

The next few months will be critical, said Josh Tulkin, director of the Maryland Sierra Club, who also received an advance copy of the report.

“The plans lays out a bold vision. Now we are looking for action. All eyes are on the governor’s legislative agenda, the budget and executive orders,” he said.

To create the plan, the state initially commissioned a report from University of Maryland researchers, who used computer modeling to highlight strategies that would propel the state to a 60% reduction — and to becoming “net-zero” by 2045. That means the amount of greenhouse gas emissions produced in the state each year would be equal to the amount of emissions removed from the atmosphere — by natural sources such as plants, as well as technological ones.

The plan also recommends that the legislature yank municipal solid waste incineration from the state’s renewable energy category, a classification that has long frustrated environmental advocacy groups because while burning waste creates energy, it pollutes the surrounding air.

Another frustration voiced by environmental groups was that the university researchers’ report seemed to rely too heavily on Marylanders purchasing electric cars, rather than setting a goal to reduce the mileage people travel by car — including by developing more transit that connects to key destinations.

The new plan endorses a goal of reducing car mileage per capita 20% by 2045, which has been raised by the Maryland Department of Transportation’s draft 2050 Transportation Plan.

Tulkin said the proposals from MDOT while good in concept, didn’t go as far as MDE’s.

“Right now, we appear to have MDE and MEA charging ahead and most other agencies ramping up, but far behind,” Tulkin said.

The plan calls on the Maryland Public Service Commission, the independent regulatory agency for power companies, to compel natural gas companies to develop plans for a net-zero future. Ratepayer representatives have been expressing concerns that utilities such as BGE have continued with costly expansions of their natural gas infrastructure, despite all signs pointing toward a future without fossil fuels.

The document lists several ways the state could pay for new programs. One possibility is expanding the state’s existing “cap-and-invest” program. Currently, carbon emissions from in-state fossil fuel power plants are capped at a certain level. When they go beyond that, power plants must pay the state for the emissions they generate. The new plan recommends extending that cap to include polluting industries beyond just power plants. But it recommends MDE evaluate the idea in 2024, rather than advance it.

On funding, the plan falls short, Coble said. Her group would have liked to see a recommendation that the state move forward with expanding the cap-and-invest program to ensure private companies producing emissions help pick up the tab.

“An inventory of possible funding sources is included, so that’s great,” she said. “But there’s not a commitment to move forward with any of them.”

Other funding options mentioned in the plan included a “hazardous substance fee” for companies that transport hazardous items through the state. Another option would be an extra “clean air toll” for interstate drivers who pass through Maryland on their travels, but don’t live in the state. It also recommends considering an extra registration fee for gas-powered cars.

The climate plan comes at a difficult juncture for the state’s finances. Maryland officials are projecting a $418 million budget shortfall for fiscal year 2025 that could grow to a $1.8 billion deficit by 2028.

McIlwain said the budget issues pose a “concern” to the new climate plan. But that’s why many of the funding options being considered would come from private companies, rather than taxpayer dollars, she said.

While the state scrambles to meet its reduction targets, there have also been setbacks in key industries such as solar and offshore wind energy, which must blossom for Maryland and other states to meet their goals. In addition, there’s a backlog of renewable energy projects waiting for approval from PJM Interconnection, which manages the region’s electrical grid, according to the MDE plan.

“This is going to be an all-hands-on-deck situation,” McIlwain said. “It’s two things. We have the budget challenges, but then we also have the clean transition — the green energy transition — that needs to happen in order for us to meet the goals.”