Trade Profile: Shane Bieber, RHP

Shane Bieber

Position: RHP, B/T: R/R
Age: 28 (5/31/1995)

2023 Traditional Stats: 21 G, 6-6, 3.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 128 IP, 107 K
2023 Advanced Stats: 2.1 fWAR, 3.87 FIP, 4.77 xERA, 20.1 K%, 6.4 BB%

Rundown

Despite never being a fireballer, Bieber has managed to get solid results. Even when he won the Cy Young, Bieber averaged a little over 94 MPH on his fastball. In subsequent years, Bieber’s velocity has declined but he has still managed to be a good MLB pitcher. In 2022, Bieber averaged 91.6 MPH on his fastball but still managed to post a 4.8 fWAR. Bieber does not strike out guys at a Jacob deGrom level rate (in 2022, his K/9 was 8.91), but he manages to limit his walks and home runs. Despite dealing with an elbow injury this past season, Bieber still managed to post a 2.1 fWAR in 128 innings.

The question remains: if Bieber’s skillset ages well and he still has found a way to succeed without elite velocity, why is Cleveland trying to trade him? Quincy Wheeler over at Covering The Corner explained some of the reasons Cleveland could be looking to trade the righty. The TLDR summary is that Cleveland’s ownership is strapped for cash, he is not on a long-term deal, and he is coming off an elbow injury.

Now, to also play devil’s advocate, there are also the baseball reasons for his underlying numbers taking a dive since 2021. Since 2020, Bieber’s swinging strike rate and chase rate have dropped every single season and his contact rate has gone up every season. That’s a pretty clear sign to me that he has lost a lot of stuff and that he is not fooling hitters particularly well. Even if you want to chalk up his 2023 diminished numbers to his elbow injury, I don’t think an elbow injury is something that can easily be glossed over and there is still the decline from 2020 to 2022.

The good news is Bieber’s salary will still be at $12 million for only one season, and despite his diminished stuff, he still manages to get decent results. I think multiple things can be true of Bieber, he is likely not going to return to his 2019-2021 levels of production, but he is still a very good pitcher who can post a 2-3 win season with the potential of something more. The downside would be that his elbow injury acts up again or is a bigger deal than is being acknowledged, and it results in his 2024 season being a wash.

Acquisition Cost

The Guardians want to shed salary, and Bieber is still a Guardian, so I think the market is not particularly booming for him. Given what these two teams did the last time they made a trade, I think Cleveland would target some low-level lottery tickets. I do not believe the return will be particularly big, but I also do not think the Mets will be able to get him solely by taking on his contract.

My Thoughts

I think Bieber would be a nice addition, but I am also not going to cry too much if the Mets do not get him. The way I see it, the Mets will probably get another starter they can rely on and another starter who can bounce back, similar to what they hope from Luis Severino.

Given their reported interest in Lucas Giolito, I would prefer someone like Bieber over Giolito, assuming both are seen as bounce-back candidates. If Bieber has a bad season, then it is only for one year. If Bieber bounces back, he could be a major reason in helping the Mets contend during 2024. This seems like the epitome of a low-risk, high-reward move that would behoove the Mets.

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