Don’t fret, ‘Nyad’ fans: SAG recognition will keep Annette Bening’s Oscar hopes afloat

In the final moments of Netflix’s “Nyad,” the 64-year-old title character fulfills her lifelong dream of swimming 110 miles from Cuba to Florida and then immediately greets her crowd of supporters with a few impassioned remarks that begin with the simple advice to “never, ever give up.” When it comes to the 2024 Best Actress Oscar race, admirers of Annette Bening’s powerhouse portrayal of Diana Nyad should take the same motto to heart now that she has faced some serious setbacks on her new quest for academy glory. Although many of her competitors’ precursor runs have been significantly stronger than hers, there’s still no real reason to count her out, especially since she’s widely expected to secure a campaign-boosting Screen Actors Guild Award nomination.

Bening is now seeking her fourth shots at both the Academy and SAG Awards for Best Actress after having scored dual bids for “American Beauty” (2000), “Being Julia” (2005), and “The Kids Are All Right” (2011). Although Oscar voters have yet to honor her, her acting guild peers wasted no time by giving her both personal and ensemble trophies on her first outing. This potential new solo notice from them would make her one of the six most-recognized individuals in the history of their lead female category, alongside Helen Mirren and Kate Winslet and behind Meryl Streep, Judi Dench, and Cate Blanchett.

Gold Derby’s experts, editors, and users all agree that Bening will be included on the next SAG Awards ballot. Her fairly stable fifth place ranking on our combined predictions list is bolstered by 41% of our 2,500+ prognosticators, with her closest threat being Fantasia Barrino (“The Color Purple”) with a nomination support rate of 35%. Unfortunately, she isn’t nearly as safe as the top four – Emma Stone (“Poor Things”), Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”), and Margot Robbie (“Barbie”) – all of whom are backed by at least 71% of our users.

At this point in the current film awards season, Bening’s greatest accomplishment has been receiving a Golden Globe nomination for Best Film Drama Actress, as our odds also predicted. Based on that lineup’s six-slot size and exclusion of comedy/musical performers, she can be said to have gotten in relatively easily, but that doesn’t diminish the fact that her inclusion at least proves the viability of her candidacy following her failure to connect with most regional critics groups. Although her Critics Choice Awards snub does throw a wrench in the works, plenty of 21st century actresses – including Ana de Armas (“Blonde”), Streep (“Florence Foster Jenkins”), and Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”) – have achieved both SAG Award and Oscar nominations without that prerequisite.

One factor working in Bening’s favor is that, given her past SAG Awards success for “American Beauty,” a 2024 triumph would make her the fourth woman in seven years to become a two-time Best Film Actress winner. Of course, that distinction could also soon be achieved by Stone (formerly of “La La Land,” 2017) or even “May December” star Natalie Portman (“Black Swan,” 2011), but Bening being two decades older than either of them means she would fit in better with her potential predecessors: Frances McDormand (60, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” 2018; “Fargo,” 1997), Renée Zellweger (50, “Judy,” 2020; “Chicago,” 2003), and Viola Davis (55, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” 2021; “The Help,” 2012).

Whether or not Bening achieves acting guild recognition this year, she can find hope in their and the academy’s 79% Best Actress nominations match rate, either as one of the typical carryovers or by being one of the yearly SAG Awards snubees who land Oscar bids anyway. Naturally, it would be better for her to fall within the former group, which is completely doable even if she must emulate her tenacious character by digging especially deep.

PREDICT the 2024 SAG Awards nominees through January 10

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