Oscar predictions: What do last decade of Best Actress winners tell us about this year?

Certain actresses are in for a very happy New Year after performing very well at two major precursors to the Academy Awards. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Emma Stone (“Poor Things”), Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”), Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”), Greta Lee (“Past Lives”), and Margot Robbie (“Barbie”) were all nominated at the Critics Choice Awards. Meanwhile, the Globes, which split lead performers into two categories, nominated Gladstone, Hüller, Lee, and Mulligan alongside Annette Bening (“Nyad”) and Cailee Spaeny (“Priscilla”) for Best Drama Actress. They nominated Stone and Robbie for Best Comedy Actress along with Alma Pöysti (“Fallen Leaves”), Fantasia Barrino (“The Color Purple”), Jennifer Lawrence (“No Hard Feelings”), and Natalie Portman (“May December”).

But before we get ahead of ourselves trying to predict the future too much, let’s look back at the last 10 Oscar winners in this category to see if we can gain any insight into this year’s race.

First things first. The academy clearly prefers actresses who play fictional characters over those who portray real people — that is very interesting as we often assume as playing a real person is a surefire way to the Oscars podium. Not in this category. Only three of the last 10 Best Actress winners have won for real-life roles: Jessica Chastain for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” Renée Zellweger for “Judy,” and Olivia Colman for “The Favourite.” The rest were all fictional.

The academy also appreciates experience in this category, which again goes against another Oscar notion — ingenues were often touted as typical winners in this category. However, seven of the last 1o champs were already Oscar nominees or winners: Chastain, Frances McDormand (for both “Nomadland” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Zellweger, Stone (“La La Land”), Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”), and Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine”). Out of those, McDormand and Blanchett were the only ones who had already won Oscars at their times of winning — McDormand won Best Actress in 1997 for “Fargo” and Blanchett won Best Supporting Actress in 2005 for “The Aviator.” The only complete Oscars newcomers who won were Brie Larson (“Room”), Colman, and Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”).

The academy also slightly prefers their Best Actress winners to be part of big Oscar players rather than movies that pick up a couple of bids but don’t really make an impact; six out of the last 10 of these winners won for films that were also nominated for Best Picture. The actresses who won for non-Best Picture nominees were Blanchett, Moore, Zellweger, and Chastain.

It’s the same ratio — six out of 10 — for genre, too. Voters prefers performances in dramas (6/10). There were two winners from comedies (Blanchett and Colman), one winner from a sci-fi (Yeoh), and one winner from a musical (Stone”). This suggests that the academy are actually open to many different kinds of performances, typified by Yeoh’s win for the zany “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Indeed, they like a colorful performance — Yeoh, Chastain, Colman, McDormand (for “Three Billboards”), and Blanchett all fall under that umbrella.

The profile of winner is interesting here, too. Yeoh, McDormand (twice), Blanchett, and Moore could all be considered veterans. The academy likes that, and they also like a big name in this category. Blanchett, Stone, Zellweger, and Chastain are all big stars, while the others are no slouches either. Now, let’s use this information to dissect this year’s Best Actress challengers.

Currently, we think that Stone, Gladstone, Mulligan, Hüller, and Robbie will be nominated for the Best Actress Oscar.

Let’s start with Stone, who we are predicting will win. She plays a fictional character in Yorgos Lanthimos‘ “Poor Things” — a comedy about a woman brought back to life who then explores the world with vigor and joy. We think “Poor Things” will be nominated for Best Picture while Stone’s status as an Oscar winner as well as the fact that she’s playing a fictional character boosts her chances even more. The only thing going against her, based on this exercise, at least, is the fact that she stars in a comedy. Still, she feels like a very strong bet. She previously won this category for “La La Land” while she has also been nominated twice for Best Supporting Actress — in 2015 for “Birdman” and 2019 for “The Favourite.” Three ticks.

Then there are Gladstone and Hüller. Like Barrino, they have never been nominated for Oscars, nor are they big names or veterans. Gladstone stars in the true story of the Osage tribe murders in “Killers of the Flower Moon”, while Hüller features in the thriller “Anatomy of a Fall,” which tells the story of a fictional wife who murders her husband but then realizes that her blind son was the only witness to the crime. Gladstone is in a drama we think will be nominated for Best Picture. That’s two ticks. Hüller plays a fictional character in a drama also predicted to be nominated for Best Picture. Three ticks.

Robbie, meanwhile, plays the title character in Greta Gerwig‘s comedy film “Barbie,” which follows the fictional character having an existential crisis. “Barbie” is expected to reap a Best Picture nomination, while the colorful, zany nature of both Robbie’s performance and “Barbie” as a movie very much fits the pattern of winners in this category. Robbie was nominated for Best Actress in 2018 for “I, Tonya” and Best Supporting Actress in 2020 for “Bombshell.” Three ticks for Robbie.

Mulligan is a real character (Felicia Montealegre) in “Maestro,” which charts the marriage between Montealegre and Leonard Bernstein in a film expected to pick up a bid for Best Picture. Mulligan was previously nominated twice in this category for “An Education” in 2010 and “Promising Young Woman” in 2021. Three ticks.

So, after all that dissection and discussion, there isn’t one predicted contender who checks all of the boxes in this exercise but Stone, Robbie, Hüller, and Mulligan all feel like safe bets while Gladstone is perhaps a little behind them.

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