Tom Thibodeau needs to play Immanuel Quickley over RJ Barrett for the Knicks to actually win

The Knicks have found their point guard of the future in Jalen Brunson but still need to work out the pieces around him before they can contend.

Perhaps the biggest concern right now is that head coach Tom Thibodeau insists on playing RJ Barrett over 24-year-old guard Immanuel Quickley. Even though Barrett was selected third overall in the 2019 NBA Draft and has shown flashes of potential, it is Quickley who has contributed more to winning for New York.

This was exemplified when the Knicks lost to the Thunder, 129-120, on Wednesday. Barrett finished with 14 points (5-of-14 from the field, 1-of-7 on 3-pointers) in 29 minutes while Quickley (7-of-10 FG, 4-of-5 3P) was a lot more efficient and productive with only 24 minutes played.

What if I told you Immanuel Quickley got subbed out after this pic.twitter.com/amgpY7asQt

— Knicks Videos (@sny_knicks) December 28, 2023

Yet despite his strong play, he was benched down the final stretch.

Already playing a small player at the point with Brunson, it seems that Thibodeau favors the size that Barrett brings to the position.

Yet despite concerns about playing two undersized guards as a starting backcourt with Brunson and Quickley, the data offers a convincing and strong counterargument.

When asked about having RJ replace IQ late in the fourth quarter, Thibs says it was due to matchups and b/c OKC has length/size. Says “everyone needs to sacrifice.” pic.twitter.com/98kcxhyzzg

— Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer) December 28, 2023

Here is more explanation in this story from Fred Katz (via The Athletic):

“Thibodeau has shied away from specificities whenever asked about Quickley’s minutes, instead reiterating more generally his points about sacrifice. But he looks at the lineup data. He has said various times that point differential per possession is the ‘most important’ statistic.”

In that case, what do the numbers tell us? It is worth noting that the best lineups for the Knicks feature Quickley playing alongside Brunson, Julius Randle, Josh Hart and either Mitchell Robinson or Isaiah Hartenstein.

New York has outscored opponents by 7.1 points per 100 possessions during the 447 minutes that Quickley has appeared without Barrett so far this year. Meanwhile, per PBPStats, the Knicks are getting outscored by 4.2 points per 100 in the 484 minutes when Barrett has appeared without Quickley.

Dating back to the 2020-21 campaign, including the playoffs, the contrast is even more striking. New York has a net rating of plus-10.4 with Quickley but no Barrett and a net rating of minus-4.3 with Barrett but no Quickley.

While it is important to have as much height and length as possible on the court, the advanced analytics also suggest that Quickley is a more impactful player than Barrett.

We pulled visualization to compare and contrast how the two players have fared in two of the most trusted advanced analytics, Estimated Plus-Minus and Daily Plus-Minus.

Both suggest that since the start of his professional career, Quickley has maintained the edge by a fairly wide margin.

This isn’t necessarily an indictment on Barrett, who is one of the highest-paid players on the Knicks and is signed to a four-year deal worth $107 million.

Instead, playing more with the second unit could potentially benefit Barrett.

Per 100 possessions, he has scored an additional 3.6 points and 1.3 assists during minutes he has not played with Brunson relative to when they have played together. His usage rate has also spiked from 24.9 percent to 30.0 percent during these minutes, per PBPStats.

A change of his role would give him more opportunities to lead New York’s offense rather than playing more off-ball. Barrett has struggled on spot-up possessions and when his shot is contested, his catch-and-shoot jumper isn’t falling.

Quickley, who was the runner-up for the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year last season, does well in the second unit. But if the Knicks are going to make a serious run in the Eastern Conference, he should play in the starting lineup instead of Barrett.