Peach Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Ole Miss vs. Penn State
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The Ole Miss Rebels and Penn State Nittany Lions will play for the first time ever in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl this Saturday. Unlike some other bowl games (most notably the Orange Bowl), a wave of opt-outs and transfers have not necessarily put a damper on this postseason matchup between top-flight teams.
Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart and Nittany Lions signal-caller Drew Allar are both expected to play. The most notable opt-outs at the moment are tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu and defensive end Chop Robinson for Penn State and edge Cedric Johnson for Ole Miss.
Coach Lane Kiffin has the Rebels (10–2) one victory shy of their first 11-win season in program history while coach James Franklin is closing in on a second consecutive 11-win campaign for the Nittany Lions (10–2). Penn State ended the regular season on a high note with a 42–0 win over Michigan State while Ole Miss eked out a 17–7 victory over rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Odds: No. 11 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Penn State
Spread: Ole Miss +4.5 (-110) | Penn State -4.5 (-118)
Moneyline: MISS (+150) | PSU (-200)
Total: 48.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-118)
Game Info: Saturday, Dec. 30 | 12 p.m. ET | ESPN
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Atlanta, GA
Best Bet: Penn State -4.5 (-118)
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Dan Rainville/USA TODAY NETWORK
The Rebels are among the top-20 scoring offenses in the FBS (34.8 points per game) thanks to the play of Dart and running back Quinshon Judkins. They scored a season-high 55 points in a shootout win against LSU, but against Alabama and Georgia, Ole Miss scored a combined 27 points in lopsided losses. Dart threw two of his five interceptions in those contests and Judkins was neutralized as well.
Penn State’s defense performed even better than that of the Crimson Tide or Bulldogs in the regular season. The Nittany Lions allowed just 11.4 points per game this season, the third-fewest in college football behind Michigan and Ohio State. It was especially hard for opponents to run on this front, which allowed just 69.7 rushing yards per game. Even though defensive coordinator Manny Diaz departed for Duke and Robinson opted out, this unit has a knack for creating havoc with an FBS-best 48 sacks to go along with 24 turnovers, a top-10 mark.
Dart’s turnover-averse play style is a plus against such an opportunistic defense, but Judkins will have his work cut out for him on the ground. That puts pressure on Dart to make plays through the air to Tre Harris, Dayton Wade and Jordan Watkins against a PSU secondary that also defends the pass at an elite level.
On offense, the Nittany Lions have the advantage on paper as well. They rank 12th nationally in scoring (37.2 points per game) behind a balanced attack. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton each finished with more than 700 yards on the ground and they traded off games as the team’s top rusher. As for Allar, he threw 23 touchdowns and just one interception in his first season as the starter. KeAndre Lambert-Smith was by far his top target, but he also got tight ends Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren involved.
Penn State also stalled against their toughest opponents, scoring a combined 27 points in losses to the Wolverines and Buckeyes. But unlike the Rebels against their stiffest SEC competition, the Nittany Lions kept things close thanks to their defense. Ole Miss is ill-equipped to slow down Allen and Singleton and does not force nearly as many turnovers as its counterpart, though the Rebels have been able to get to opposing quarterbacks, evidenced by their 34 sacks.
Ole Miss lost its last two bowl games under Kiffin, both by two-plus scores. The Rebels posted a pedestrian 6–4–2 record against spread this season that dropped to 1–2 as an underdog. Penn State, on the other hand, has a better record in bowl games under Franklin and finished the year with a sterling 9–3 mark against the spread. As a favorite, the Nittany Lions’ record improves to 9–1, further evidence they can win — and cover — against Ole Miss in Atlanta.
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