From Billie Eilish to David Bowie, breaking down Grammy races for Best Music Video and Best Music Film

Grammy voting began on December 14 and ends on January 4, so let’s consider who the Grammys will likely pick. In the Best Music Video and Best Music Film categories, past winners include an eclectic set of artists like Duran Duran, David Bowie, Beyoncé, Mumford and Sons, The Beatles, Lady Gaga and Johnny Cash.

Best Music Video
The winners here tend to be videos that really shifted or impacted culture. Think of Childish Gambino’s “This Is America,” Beyonce’s “Formation,” Taylor Swift’s “All Too Well: The Short Film” or Kendrick Lamar’s “Humble.” They also tend to be by artists having a big year at the Grammys overall, like when Pharrell Williams won for “Happy” along with two other awards, when Beyoncé won for “Brown Skin Girl” along with three other awards, or when Jon Batiste won with “Freedom” the same year he took home four other Grammys including Album of the Year.

This year there’s a good chance the winner will fall into the latter category, with the award going to Billie Eilish’s “What Was I Made For?” The video was somewhat of a left-field nominee, but the song and Eilish seem to be so beloved that it might not really matter. The track is up for five Grammys overall including Record and Song of the Year. The last time an artist nominated in the general field lost this category to an artist not nominated in the general field was in 2009, when Weezer’s “Pork and Beans” beat Radiohead’s “House of Cards,” so you might want to bet on Eilish to prevail here.

Still, I wouldn’t call Eilish a lock. The Grammys are trying to reform this category to be more critical and gravitate less to pop stars acknowledged simply due to being pop stars. In the summer, the recording academy announced that it was reinstating the nomination review committee for the category, likely due to backlash over nominations for big names with mediocre videos when the panels were eliminated. This category, along with Best Music Film, was also merged into a single field with children’s, comedy, audio book/narration/storytelling and visual media. That could mean a broader set of voters less swayed by sheer star power. In that case, one might keep an eye on the other contenders in this race.

Tyler Childers’s “In Your Love” was loved by country and Americana voters, earning additional nominations for Best Country Solo Performance and Best Country Song, and could be helped by its buzzy video advocating for LGBTQ+ rights as well as black lung prevention. And speaking of LGBTQ+-themed videos, there’s also Troye Sivan’s “Rush,” nominated for Best Pop Dance Recording too; it caught the attention of many due to its vibrant, queer-centered visuals. Kendrick Lamar’s “Count Me Out” is also nominated, fresh off a VMA bid for Best Direction, which tends to be a decent indicator of Grammy potential. Lamar is also up for Best Music Film, so voters are definitely into him this year (like they are most years). And The Beatles might also have a shot, nominated for their AI-assisted video for “Only Sleeping.”

Ultimately, though, the lack of a clear alternative among the four other options might mean Eilish will walk away with it. If I were to pick a runner-up, it might be Sivan, based on the fact that he has the second biggest hit and video based on streams and views. Lamar could also be the Grammys’ pick based on how much voters generally love him too.

Will win: Billie Eilish, “What Was I Made For”
Could win: Troye Sivan, “Rush”
Dark horse: Kendrick Lamar, “Count Me Out”

Best Music Film
Voters in this category tend to be less impressed by an artist’s fame or buzz. That’s how you get something like a Beatles documentary beating Beyoncé’s Album of the Year-nominated “Lemonade” or Frank Marshall’s “Jazz Fest: A New Orleans Story” beating submissions by Billie Eilish, Adele, and Justin Bieber. Music docs about veterans also tend to win here a lot, so that might give the upper hand to three of the nominees: David Bowie’s “Moonage Daydream,” Little Richard’s “I Am Everything” and Tupac Shakur’s “Dear Mama.”

Bowie’s is the most popular of those, and it has been lauded with awards left and right. That combined with the fact that the Grammys seemed to like Bowie more than Little Richard or Tupac (Bowie won five Grammys, including four posthumous) might give it the edge to win. However, I wouldn’t count out Kendrick Lamar’s “Live From Paris, The Big Steppers Tour,” considering he’s a consistent Grammy favorite. Still, you might want to play it safe with the veteran-focused documentaries.

Will win: “Moonage Daydream”
Could win: “Dear Mama”
Dark horse: “I Am Everything”

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