Could ‘Oppenheimer’ be killed by ‘Flower Moon’ at the Golden Globes?
“Oppenheimer” has been the Oscar front-runner for Best Picture almost since its release in July. So it makes sense that the film would also be our Golden Globes front-runner for Best Film Drama. Based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users, the blockbuster biopic gets leading odds of 17/5. But “Killers of the Flower Moon” is breathing down its neck, ranked second with 39/10 odds.
As of this writing “Oppenheimer” is backed by 11 out of 13 Expert journalists, eight out of 10 Gold Derby Editors, 20 of our Top 24 Users and 18 of our All-Star Top 24. Compare that to “Flower Moon,” which has support from two Experts, two Editors, four Top Users and four All-Stars. That seems like a pretty clear advantage for the Christopher Nolan drama, but the race might be closer than we think.
“Oppenheimer” has eight Globe nominations, while “Flower Moon” has seven. But that one extra nom for “Oppenheimer” is in a category “Flower Moon” wouldn’t have been considered for: Cinematic and Box Office Achievement. Besides that the two films came out of the nominations dead even. Both were nominated for Best Film. Both are up for writing and directing. Both contend for Best Original Score. And both picked up three acting nominations. So why is “Oppenheimer” so far ahead?
Perhaps it’s Nolan’s awards IOU. He has five Oscar nominations without a win, and now at the Globes he has been nominated six times in writing and directing categories without a victory. “Flower Moon” director Martin Scorsese, meanwhile, has been duly awarded by the Globes over the years, collecting three Best Director trophies (“Gangs of New York,” “The Departed,” “Hugo”) as well as the 2010 Cecil B. DeMille Award for his lifetime achievements in film. So if this is indeed the year of Nolan’s coronation, “Oppenheimer” could be carried to Best Picture wins right along with him.
That said, Globe voters could easily honor Nolan with Best Director and still give Best Film to “Flower Moon.” That would be similar to what happened six years ago when Guillermo Del Toro collected his overdue Best Director honor from the Golden Globes for “The Shape of Water” while “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” was named Best Film. (“Shape of Water” ended up winning the Best Picture Oscar anyway in addition to Best Director.)
Which way do you think this race will go when the winners are announced during the January 7 ceremony?
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