NFL playoff clinching and elimination scenarios heading into Week 18
What’s at stake during the last week of the 2023 NFL regular season
The final week of the 2023 NFL regular season is here.
And five playoff spots are still up for grabs.
The week kicks of with two pivotal games on Saturday. The first is between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers, as a historic rivalry is renewed. While the Ravens have already locked up the first-overall seed in the AFC, the Steelers need a win — and some help — to get into the playoffs.
Then Saturday night gives us our first “win and in” game of the weekend, between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans. The winning team clinches a playoff spot, and keeps their hopes for the AFC South alive, while the losing team can start making vacation plans.
Sunday sees a number of critical games, culminating in the season finale, when the AFC East will be decided in the game between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills. For Miami, they are already guaranteed a playoff spot, but a loss drops them out of the No. 2 seed in the AFC, and down to the No. 6 seed.
For Buffalo, a win gives them the East and the No. 2 spot. A loss could see them eliminated.
Let’s go through all the scenarios.
NFC
Playoff-clinching scenarios
Five teams — the San Francisco 49ers, the Dallas Cowboys, the Detroit Lions, the Los Angeles Rams, and the Philadelphia Eagles — have clinched already.
Six teams are left fighting for the final four spots. The first three come from the NFC South.
We can start with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Last week’s loss to the New Orleans Saints delivered a blow to their playoff odds, but they still control their own destiny. With a win over the Carolina Panthers, the Buccaneers win the division.
They can also win the division with a tie against Carolina, and a Saints loss or tie against the Atlanta Falcons.
There is also an extremely narrow path where the Buccaneers get in as the No. 7 seed in the NFC. That would require: A tie against Carolina, a Seattle Seahawks loss to the Arizona Cardinals, and a Green Bay Packers loss or tie against the Chicago Bears.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints’ win last week over the Buccaneers kept them alive for the NFC South division title. They can clinch that this week with:
- A win over the Falcons and a Buccaneers loss or tie against the Panthers, OR
- A tie against the Falcons and a Buccaneers loss to the Panthers
New Orleans, like Tampa Bay, also has a slim path to the No. 7 seed, despite losing out on the division. The Saints can get into the playoffs this way with:
- A win over the Falcons, a Buccaneers win over the Panthers, a Seahawks loss to the Cardinals, and a Packers loss or tie against the Bears, OR
- A tie against the Panthers, a Buccaneers win or tie against the Panthers, a Seahawks loss to the Cardinals, and a Packers loss to the Bears
Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons are 7-9. They are currently 12th in the NFC standings, technically behind the Chicago Bears, a team that was eliminated last week despite beating the Falcons.
Yet Atlanta can still win the division. If the Falcons beat the Saints, and the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers, Atlanta finishes 8-9, but wins the division. All three teams would be 8-9, but in this scenario the Falcons would have finished with a 3-1 record in games among the three teams. Tampa Bay would have finished 2-2 in those games, while New Orleans would finish with a 1-3 record in these games.
Green Bay Packers
Moving beyond the NFC South teams, three more teams are alive for the third Wild Card spot. We will start with the Green Bay Packers, who have the easiest path to the postseason. The Packers control their own destiny, and clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Chicago Bears.
They can also get in with:
- A tie against Chicago, a Seahawks loss or tie against Arizona, and a Saints loss or tie against Atlanta, OR
- A tie against Chicago, a Seahawks tie against Arizona, and a Buccaneers loss or tie against Carolina, OR
- A tie against Chicago, a Seahawks loss to Arizona, and a Buccaneers loss to Carolina
Green Bay can also back into the playoffs with a loss to the Bears. They still get in with:
- A loss to the Bears, a Seahawks loss to the Cardinals, a Buccaneers loss to the Panthers, and a Vikings loss or tie against the Lions, OR
- A loss to the Bears, a Seahawks loss to the Cardinals, a Saints loss to the Falcons, and a Vikings loss or tie against the Lions
Seattle Seahawks
Should the Packers stumble against the Bears, that opens the door for both the Seahawks and the Vikings to grab that final Wild Card spot. Between those two teams, Seattle has the easier path. The Seahawks are in with:
- A win against the Cardinals and a Packers loss or tie against the Bears, OR
- A tie against the Cardinals, a Packers loss to the Bears, and a Saints loss or tie against the Falcons, OR
- A tie against the Cardinals, a Packers loss to the Bears, and a Buccaneers loss or tie against the Panthers
As for the Vikings, they have the slimmest path to the playoffs of these teams. But Minnesota can get in with:
- A win against the Lions, a Seahawks loss to the Cardinals, a Packers loss to the Bears, and a Buccaneers loss to the Panthers, OR
- A win against the Lions, a Seahawks loss to the Cardinals, a Packers loss to the Bears, and a Saints loss to the Falcons
Seeding and division scenarios
Now that the regular season is nearly over, we can focus on some seeding and division scenarios.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have clinched the top seed in the NFC.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys can wrap up the NFC East, and the No. 2 seed in the NFC, with:
- A win against Washington, OR
- A tie against Washington and an Eagles tie against the Giants, OR
- An Eagles loss to the Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Things are, well, bleak in Philadelphia.
But the Eagles can still win the division, and secure the No. 2 seed in the East, with:
- A win against the Giants and a Dallas loss or tie against Washington, OR
- A tie against the Giants and a Dallas loss to Washington
For more on how the various seeding scenarios can playo out this week, you can visit NFL Playoff Scenarios.
Elimination scenarios
When it comes to the elimination scenarios, we are focusing on simple playoff elimination scenarios. If you are interested in how various teams can be eliminated from division title contention, or seeding spots, you can visit NFL Playoff Scenarios.
Six teams are facing elimination from the playoffs this weekend.
Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons will be eliminated with a loss or tie against the Saints, or a Buccaneers win or tie against the Panthers.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints can be eliminated from playoff contention with:
- A loss to the Falcons, OR
- A tie against the Falcons, a Buccaneers win or tie against the Panthers, and a Packers win or tie against the Lions, OR
- A tie against the Falcons, a Buccaneers win or tie against the Panthers, and a Seahawks win or tie against the Cardinals, OR
- A Buccaneers win against the Panthers and a Packers win against the Bears, OR
- A Buccaneers win against the Panthers and a Seahawks win against the Cardinals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers still control their destiny, but can be eliminated with:
- A loss to the Panthers, OR
- A tie against the Panthers, a Saints win against the Falcons, and a Seahawks win or tie against the Cardinals, OR
- A tie against the Panthers, a Saints win, and a Packers win
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are eliminated with:
- A loss to the Cardinals, OR
- A tie against the Cardinals, a Saints win against the Falcons, and a Buccaneers win against the Panthers, OR
- A tie against the Cardinals and a Packers tie against the Bears, OR
- A Packers win
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings can be eliminated with:
- A loss or tie against the Lions, OR
- A Seahawks win or tie against the Cardinals, OR
- A Packers win or tie against the Bears, OR
- A Buccaneers win or tie against the Panthers and a Saints win or tie against the Falcons
Green Bay Packers
The Packers still control their destiny, and a win over the Bears gets them in. However, a loss or a tie against Chicago opens the door to elimination. Green Bay is out with:
- A loss to the Bears and a Vikings win against the Lions, OR
- A loss to the Bears and a Seahawks win or tie against the Cardinals, OR
- A loss to the Bears, a Buccaneers win or tie against the Panthers, and a Saints win or tie against the Falcons, OR
- A tie against the Bears and a Seahawks win against the Cardinals, OR
- A tie against the Bears, a Buccaneers win against the Panthers, and a Saints win against the Falcons, OR
- A tie against the Bears, a Seahawks loss to the Lions, a Saints win against the Falcons, and a Buccaneers tie against the Panthers
There is also a way the Packers can be eliminated with a loss to the Vikings, a Saints win, a Falcons win, and a combination of wins from other teams. For more on that scenario, visit NFL Playoff Scenarios.
Eliminated teams
The Washington Commanders, the Carolina Panthers, the New York Giants, the Chicago Bears, and the Arizona Cardinals have already been eliminated.
AFC
Playoff-clinching scenarios
Over in the AFC four teams — the Baltimore Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Cleveland Browns, and the Miami Dolphins — have punched their playoff tickets already. Here is how five different teams can join them.
CJ Beathard to the rescue! With their win against the Panthers last weekend — with my dear friend JP Acosta in attendance, so keep that in mind Jaguars — Jacksonville inched closer to a division title. With a win over the Tennessee Titans, the Jaguars clinch the AFC South. They can also clinch the AFC South with a tie against Tennessee, provided the game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans ends in a tie.
Jacksonville can also get in as a Wild Card team with:
- A tie against Tennessee and a Steelers loss or tie against the Ravens, OR
- A Steelers loss to the Ravens, a Broncos loss or tie against the Raiders, and a Texans loss to the Colts, OR
- A Steelers loss to the Ravens, a Broncos loss or tie against the Raiders, and a Colts loss to the Texans
Buffalo Bills
The season finale between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins will decide the AFC East. However, the Bills might already be in before that game kicks off. Buffalo clinches a playoff spot with:
- A Steelers loss or tie to the Ravens (meaning Buffalo might clinch on Saturday), OR
- A Jaguars loss or tie against the Titans, OR
- A Colts tie against the Texans on Saturday night
However, if those results do not go their way, the Bills clinch a playoff spot with a tie against the Dolphins. They clinch the AFC East with a win against the Dolphins.
Indianapolis Colts
Saturday night is in many ways our first playoff game, as the winner between the Texans and the Colts is in the playoffs, and the loser is eliminated.
For the Colts, they clinch a playoff berth with a win against Houston, or a tie against Houston and a Steelers loss or tie against the Ravens. They can clinch the AFC South with a win against Houston and a Jaguars loss or tie against the Titans, or a tie against Houston and a Jaguars loss to the Titans.
Houston Texans
Things are similar for the Texans. They clinch a playoff spot with a win against Indianapolis, or a tie against the Texans, a Jaguars loss to the Titans, and a Steelers loss or tie against the Ravens. They clinch the AFC South with a win against the Colts, and a Jaguars loss or tie against the Titans.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are still alive, but need some help. Pittsburgh can get in with:
- A win against the Ravens and a Bills loss to the Dolphins, OR
- A win against the Ravens and a Jaguars loss or tie against the Titans, OR
- A win against the Ravens and a Colts-Texans tie, OR
- A tie against the Ravens, a Colts loss to the Texans, and a Jaguars loss to the Titans, OR
- A tie against the Ravens, a Texans loss to the Colts, and a Jaguars loss to the Titans
There are also two scenarios where they can get in regardless of how they fare against Baltimore. That would require:
- A Jaguars loss to the Titans, a Colts loss to the Texans, and a Broncos win over the Raiders, OR
- A Jaguars loss to the Titans, a Texans loss to the Colts, and a Broncos win over the Raiders
In these two scenarios, assume the Steelers lose to the Ravens. Then the Steelers, the Jaguars, the Broncos, and the loser of the AFC South game Saturday night would all be tied with 9-8 records. In these scenarios, Jacksonville “eliminates” the other AFC South team as the first step. The three teams would have matching 6-6 conference records, and only on strength of victory would the Steelers break the tie.
Seeding and division scenarios
As noted above, the Jaguars, Colts, and Texans can all clinch the division this week.
Miami Dolphins
With a win against the Bills, the Dolphins win the AFC East.
Buffalo Bills
With a win against the Dolphins, the Bills win the AFC East.
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore has already secured homefield advantage.
Elimination scenarios
Now let’s look at some elimination scenarios.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are eliminated this weekend with:
- A Jaguars win against the Titans, a Bills win or tie against the Dolphins, and a Colts win, OR
- A Jaguars win against the Titans, a Bills win or tie against the Dolphins, and a Texans win, OR
- A loss or tie against the Ravens and a Jaguars win or tie against the Titans, OR
- A loss or tie against the Ravens and a Colts-Texans tie, OR
- A loss to the Ravens and a Broncos loss or tie against the Raiders (which addresses the potential tiebreaker outlined above)
Houston Texans
The Texans are eliminated with:
- A loss to the Colts, OR
- A tie with the Colts and a Jaguars win or tie against the Titans, OR
- A tie with the Colts and a Steelers win
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are eliminated with a loss to the Texans, or a tie against the Texans coupled with a Jaguars win or tie against the Titans and a Steelers win.
Buffalo Bills
While the Bills can win the AFC East and lock up the No. 2 seed, they can also be eliminated this weekend. Buffalo is out with:
- A loss to the Dolphins, a Texans win against the Colts, a Jaguars win against the Titans, and a Steelers win against the Ravens, OR
- A loss to the Dolphins, a Colts win against the Texans, a Jaguars win against the Titans, and a Steelers win against the Ravens
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are eliminated with:
- A tie with the Jaguars, a Texans win against the Colts, and a Steelers win against the Ravens, OR
- A tie with the Jaguars, a Colts win against the Texans, and a Steelers win against the Ravens, OR
- A loss to the Titans and a Steelers win or tie against the Ravens, OR
- A loss to the Titans and a Broncos win against the Raiders, OR
- A loss to the Titans and a Colts-Texans tie
Eliminated teams
The New England Patriots, the New York Jets, the Los Angeles Chargers, the Denver Broncos, the Cincinnati Bengals, the Las Vegas Raiders and the Tennessee Titans have all been eliminated.